Transcript #541

QAV 541 CLUB

Cameron  00:06

Wel­come to QAV, TK. This is episode 541. We’re record­ing Tues­day the 18th of Octo­ber, 2:00 pm Bris­bane time, 3:00 pm Syd­ney time. How’re you doing, TK?

Tony  00:21

Good, real­ly good, thank you. How are you?

Cameron  00:24

I’m good. I’m tired. I’m sore. My body took a beat­ing over the last few days at Kung Fu but I’m still here. Tell you what, I’m bet­ter off than Mur­ray. Poor Mur­ray. Mur­ray the Iron­man — Iron­man Mur­ray from WA. Mur­ray Bruce men­tioned a few weeks ago that he was going to Hawaii to run in the Iron­man. He caught COVID from his daugh­ter a cou­ple of days before. He got there like a week ear­ly, I think, too, to cli­ma­tise. Caught COVID from his daugh­ter appar­ent­ly and could­n’t run, could­n’t do the Iron­man. Our con­do­lences to Mur­ray, that sucks. I’m sure there’s a sil­ver lin­ing in there some­where.

Tony  01:10

Well, I mean, there’s plen­ty of triathlons around the coun­try, so hope­ful­ly he gets a run some­where.

Cameron  01:15

Yeah, and he got a hol­i­day in Hawaii.

Tony  01:18

Hey, maybe we should enter next year.

Cameron  01:20

Oh, yeah?

Tony  01:21

Day before, “Oh! Done a ham­my. Can’t run. I’ll be at the bar if you need me.”

Cameron  01:32

I’m like that when­ev­er I have to go to Kung Fu and fox goes on “I don’t want to go today.” I’m like, “good. We’re not going.” Usu­al­ly, we go any­way. But hey, let’s talk about the mar­kets and the port­fo­lio, Tony. The mar­ket? I don’t know, man, what’s going on with the mar­ket? Like, if I look at the last week, it was all in the dol­drums on the 12th, the 13th, then on the 14th: boom, sky­rock­et­ed. We were excit­ed on the 14th, and we had a great day. That was Fri­day. Come back on Mon­day, crash­es again Mon­day. “Oh no,” the world’s hor­ri­ble on Mon­day. Tues­day morn­ing, wake up: boom, it’s back up again. Now we’re all excit­ed again. It’s great. Like, what the hell? One day they’re excit­ed, the next day every­one’s depressed. Talk about Mr Mar­ket hav­ing bipo­lar dis­or­der, or what­ev­er it is.

Tony  02:30

Yeah, not just that but, I mean, Aus­tralia always does fol­low the US, but it’s just like we get up in the morn­ing and go “oh, mar­kets up in the US. Beau­ty. We’ll buy some stocks.” It just does­n’t make much sense, because noth­ing’s changed here.

Cameron  02:43

Yeah. Or glob­al­ly, noth­ing real­ly has changed. I mean, every­thing is still “infla­tion, infla­tion, infla­tion,” inter­est rates are going up. Liz Truss fired her Trea­sury guy and brought in anoth­er guy who imme­di­ate­ly over­turned every­thing that he said he was gonna do. But apart from that, noth­ing real­ly changes. Ukraine still is a shit show. Chi­na, Xi Jin­ping still run­ning for his third term, still hav­ing zero COVID. But noth­ing real­ly changes. It’s fas­ci­nat­ing to sit and watch just the bipo­lar nature of the mar­ket. It’s up one day, crash­ing the next day. But from where we are, we just “yeah, what­ev­er.”

Tony  03:30

Well, the rea­son for it being up today appar­ent­ly was its quar­ter­ly report­ing sea­son in the US and the banks have out­per­formed their expec­ta­tions, so the mar­ket’s jumped in the US. But again, what’s that got to do with us sit­ting in Syd­ney and Bris­bane? Not much. I just think it’s a jit­tery time. The mar­ket likes cer­tain­ty and there’s still a lot of uncer­tain­ty going on.

Cameron  03:54

Well, speak­ing of uncer­tain­ty, the dum­my port­fo­lio in the last thir­ty days, we’re up 0.21% per annum ver­sus the ASX 200, the “Sexy 2”. It’s up 1.07% over the last thir­ty days. So, it’s doing bet­ter than we are. If I look at since incep­tion — which for new folks we closed this port­fo­lio Sep­tem­ber 2019, so, a lit­tle over three years — we are up about 16%, 15.92% per annum ver­sus the Sexy 200 which is up 5.74%. So, what’s six­teen divid­ed by six, Tony? 2.6?

Tony  04:45

Sound’s right.

Cameron  04:46

About 2.6 times bet­ter than the All Ord’s. That par­tic­u­lar bench­mark any­way, over the last cou­ple of years.

Tony  04:54

By clos­ing the port­fo­lio in Sep­tem­ber 2019, you mean we closed it to any new cap­i­tal that’s been oper­at­ing since then?

Cameron  05:05

Although in the­o­ry, I did add a cou­ple of thou­sand dol­lars in cap­i­tal to it that were by acci­dent.

Tony  05:11

I’m not sure you did, did you?

Cameron  05:12

Yeah. Well, that’s what Rud­dy deter­mined. So, what hap­pened for lis­ten­ers at home is for the first cou­ple of years Navexa weren’t track­ing our cash account. So, we get paid div­i­dends for the stocks we own, but they weren’t show­ing up in Navexa as cash that we could then invest. I did­n’t notice this until one day Tony goes, “well, where’s all of our div­i­dends?” And I was like, “oh, shit, yeah.” So, we went back, and we said to them, “hey, where are our div­i­dends?” And they were like, “oh, yeah, we’re going to imple­ment that.” But we did some analy­sis, we fig­ured out there was prob­a­bly about $2,200 that we should have had of div­i­dends that we could be invest­ing. So, I did a man­u­al entry of $2,211 or some­thing, which we then invest­ed. But then they imple­ment­ed div­i­dends and a cash account, and they did it ret­ro­spec­tive­ly. I should have tak­en that $2,211 back out but I did­n’t and just kept invest­ing it and not real­is­ing that it dou­bled up until we asked Rud­dy to do an audit. And he was like, “well, we’re out $2,200.” And I go, “well, would this be that?” And then I said, “should I pull it out?” And you guys both said “no, you can’t pull it out now.”

Tony  06:30

I did­n’t say that. I’ve only been part of this process a lit­tle bit. I’d like to go back and check the work; I’ll talk to Rud­dy.

Cameron  06:39

The con­clu­sion that he and I came to a week or so ago is, well, that mon­ey is rein­vest­ed. I mean, if we sell stocks, we could sell some stuff and take that mon­ey back out, I guess, that $2,200 But it’s remained invest­ed, so it’s all very con­fus­ing.

Tony  06:56

I’ll have a look and try and sort it out. You’re 100% sure Navexa ret­ro­spec­tive­ly put the div­i­dends into the cash account?

Cameron  07:03

Yeah, I mean, when they imple­ment­ed the fea­ture of the cash account, I did a sync. I fol­lowed their process; they do a sync and it will sync all of the div­i­dends going back since the incep­tion of the thing. So, I’m assum­ing all the div­i­dends were picked up.

Tony  07:21

Okay, that sounds like they did, then.

Cameron  07:24

So, it’s a lit­tle bit of a mess. But we’ll fix that. All the num­bers I just quot­ed prob­a­bly are mean­ing­less, who knows? No, because we still invest­ed the mon­ey, so the mon­ey went in as cap­i­tal. So, we did ini­tial­ly close it in Sep­tem­ber 2019, but then I inad­ver­tent­ly added more cap­i­tal this year, I think, or last year.

Cameron  07:26

But okay, so if Navexa is doing its job prop­er­ly, it should take that into account in giv­ing our per­cent­age returns.

Cameron  07:52

Yes. It just means you can’t look at the port­fo­lio total val­ue and say, “well, we start­ed with $20,000 and now we’ve got $30,700,” because there was an extra $2,200 in there.

Tony  08:04

Gotcha.

Cameron  08:05

Yeah, but look­ing at the per­cent­age num­bers, it should be right. That’s just con­fused the hell out of every­body. Sor­ry about that, folks.

Tony  08:11

We should do that offline. Or edit it out or some­thing, yep.

Cameron  08:15

So, that’s the port­fo­lio any­way. Over the long haul, still doing good.

Tony  08:20

Because you put more mon­ey in.

Cameron  08:22

Don’t con­fuse me. Now you’re just screw­ing with peo­ple, you’re gonna con­fuse them again. We just said it’s fine, now you’re just…

Tony  08:31

On a per­cent­age basis its fine.

Cameron  08:33

This finan­cial year, the Sexy 200 is up 9.73. We’re only up 3.58. So, we are up, but not as good as the SPD 200. But as you point­ed out recent­ly, you know, we’re most­ly small-cap stocks and the small cap index has not been doing as well this year as the SPDR 200.

Tony  08:55

it’s well down. But look, that aside, we’re always going to have peri­ods of under­per­for­mance but over­all, over the long term a his­to­ry of out­per­for­mance.

Cameron  09:03

Yeah. So, that’s my port­fo­lio update and the mar­ket update. Com­mod­i­ty updates. What is going on with the com­modi­ties, Tony? We’ve been talk­ing about alu­mini­um this morn­ing offline. If I look at the Stock Doc­tor chart for alu­mini­um, it looks to me like it’s got a new sell line but is still a Josephine because I can’t draw a sec­ond buy line.

Tony  09:32

Yes, this is an inter­est­ing one, because when I look at it, doing a buy line fol­lows the sell line it’s almost like the end of July 2022. It was a buy and sell almost at the same time. So, you’ve gone one step fur­ther and you’ve looked at redraw­ing the new buy line after that using Aug 2022. Is that right? As an h2?

Cameron  09:59

No, I’m still using July ’22. So, sor­ry, for new folks out there, we’re try­ing to deter­mine the state of alu­mini­um as a com­mod­i­ty. We’re doing this look­ing in Stock Doc­tor. If you go to advanced chart­ing in Stock Doc­tor, under fold­ers you can find com­modi­ties, under com­modi­ties phys­i­cal, the top one there is alu­mini­um XAL_. So, we’re look­ing at the chart for that. I’m using a sell line with L1 April 2020, L2 Sep­tem­ber 2020.

Tony  10:35

Okay, so, sor­ry, just on that: I think I worked out April 2020 and May 2020 were with­in 8%, so I’m using L1 of May 2020.

Cameron  10:47

Well May’s not real­ly a trough, it’s just a point. Does­n’t change things?

Cameron  10:55

No.

Cameron  10:56

So, the new L2 is Sep­tem­ber ’22. So, it’s bounced off of that. So, it’s got a new sell line, which it’s above, but I can’t draw a sec­ond buy line because if I use March ’22 as H1 and then I use July ’22 as H2, it shoots straight through that. There’s no third point where it cross­es.

Tony  11:21

Yeah, so sor­ry. Just go back to your sell line. Where’s your L2?

Cameron  11:25

Sep­tem­ber ’22, 30 Sep­tem­ber ’22.

Tony  11:28

Okay, so go back. Why aren’t you using June 2022?

Cameron  11:33

Because it’s got a new trough after that. Don’t I redraw the sell line if there’s a new trough?

Tony  11:38

Yeah, that’s where I was get­ting con­fused. You draw it if the buy line is after the sell line, which I think it is.

Cameron  11:41

I can’t draw a buy line, a new buy line, because it was a Josephine. So, I need to draw a sec­ond buy line, right. And it needs to go above the sec­ond buy line. But to have a sec­ond buy line, I need two peaks and then it needs to cross at a third point. Why are you giv­ing me that look?

Tony  12:07

I can’t see you; I’ve got the screen up on Stock Doc­tor.

Cameron  12:10

I can see you.

Tony  12:12

Yeah, okay. Yeah, look, this is such a tricky one. I think from mem­o­ry, we can use a point for H2. I know the Bret­te­la­tor does that for a stop if it’s going down steeply like this chart is and it kicks out to the right, even though it’s not strict­ly a peak. So, you can use August 2022, which makes it a buy.

Cameron  12:38

Real­ly? You’re just going to ignore that peak? Well, no, even if I draw it through that it just goes straight through. It does­n’t cross it a third time. You know, we had this whole con­ver­sa­tion with Brett a month ago about, for it to be a three-point trend­line it has to cross the line at a third point. You’ve got H1, H2, and then it has to cross a third point. In this case it does­n’t.

Tony  13:06

I think it does, Cam. So, if you use August 2022, it’s going to the right of that line any time after that, real­ly, isn’t it?

Cameron  13:17

Yeah, but the com­mod­i­ty price line is imme­di­ate­ly above the line that you draw as soon as it cross­es through H2. It does­n’t cross it a third time.

Tony  13:32

Okay.

Cameron  13:36

Let me explain how QAV works to you, Tony.

Tony  13:39

Thank you.

Cameron  13:42

Well, this is what I was con­fused about a month ago and I was sure you and Brett both told me it needs to cross at a third point. That’s why it’s a three-point trend­line

Tony  13:51

Yeah, that sounds right. I’m just look­ing at look­ing at the lines and try­ing to work out why you’re say­ing it does­n’t cross.

Cameron  14:01

Because it’s already above it as soon as I draw the line.

Tony  14:04

You’ve got to use the peak.

Cameron  14:06

Well, even that does­n’t help. Even if I do that it’s…

Tony  14:08

It’s nev­er going to cross a third time. If you use July or you use August 2022 as H2, the graph is to the right of that. If the graph con­tin­ues upwards, it’s nev­er going to cross the line a third time. It’s got to go almost back­wards, has­n’t it, or have anoth­er peak we can us for H2?

Cameron  14:29

Have anoth­er peak, yeah. So, what do we do?

Tony  14:30

Yeah, to me it looks like it’s crossed, even though it’s only gone across twice. Unless you go back. If you go back and use May 2022 as H2 then it cross­es a third time, but then it became a sell straight away, so you had to redraw the buy line. Inter­est­ing one. So, we’d redraw the buy line and we’d redraw the sell line.

Cameron  14:55

Let’s move on. You can make a cap­tain’s call on this at some point.

Tony  14:59

That’s an inter­est­ing one. I think it’s a buy. I hate the frig­gin’ Bible. It’s tying me up in knots try­ing to be con­sis­tent.

Cameron  15:11

I know, right?

Tony  15:15

Which I know we need to do to try and code things, but we just keep get­ting new exam­ples to con­tra­dict the old rules.

Cameron  15:21

Now you know how the writ­ers of the New Tes­ta­ment felt. They were like, “we nev­er thought that in two thou­sand years Reil­ly would be mak­ing a film going ‘hold on, this isn’t con­sis­tent. You just made shit up.’ Well, yeah, we knew we were mak­ing it up, we did­n’t know any­one was gonna hold us to it two thou­sand year lat­er.”

Tony  15:40

I’m going to take the Jesus approach: I did­n’t write the Bible, I don’t read the Bible, I don’t care what the Bible says.

Cameron  15:47

What about coal, because coal is sort of a tricky one.

Tony  15:56

Which one? Ther­mal or cok­ing?

Cameron  15:58

Yeah, well, that too.

Tony  16:01

Which source are you using?

Cameron  16:04

Trad­ing Eco­nom­ics. By the way, speak­ing of Wing Chun, I was talk­ing to a guy Wing Chun the oth­er day who works on a mine site — a new one up in far north Queens­land. I was like, “well, what kind of coal are you dig­ging out of the ground there, Mick, is it ther­mal or met­al­lur­gi­cal — or, as we in the indus­try call it, cok­ing?” And he said, “it’s cok­ing.” And I said, “oh, it’s the less evil of the coals then.” And he said yeah. Chris­sy was like, “what? Isn’t all coal, coal?” He goes, “well, actu­al­ly, you don’t burn cok­ing coal. It just gets put into the steel.” I thought you used it to melt the steel.

Cameron  16:43

He said you just you grind it up and you put it into the steel, and it strength­ens it, or some­thing. So, I did­n’t know that. But I just like nod­ded sage­ly, I don’t know if that’s right or not. I’m sure some­body out there will tell me if that’s right. That guy could have been tak­ing me for a walk.

Tony  16:43

Yeah, I did too.

Tony  17:05

He’s done a Norm on you.

Cameron  17:06

Yeah, or a Cliffy. “That’s a lit­tle-known fact, there, Normy.” So, I’m look­ing at coal on Trad­ing Eco­nom­ics. This is just ther­mal, I guess. Look­ing at one month, try­ing to get to a five-year chart here. So, it’s down, but it’s still a buy. But it’s prob­a­bly a Josephine.

Tony  17:32

Yeah, def­i­nite­ly a Josephine.

Cameron  17:34

Coal’s a Josephine. Does that mean we can’t buy any coal stocks?

Tony  17:38

It does.

Cameron  17:40

I’m just try­ing to see what I put in the check­list that went out yes­ter­day. I can’t remem­ber what sta­tus I said coal was.

Tony  17:48

Thanks for point­ing that out, because I think I dou­bled down on my coal posi­tions last week.

Cameron  17:53

Comm­sta­tus. I did say it was a Josephine, so that’s good. It was right. Gold. I’ve got Gold USD as a sell but Gold AUD as a buy. So, Gold AUD I use kitco.com. They have it in Aus­tralian dol­lars.

Tony  18:16

I am using goldprice.org.

Cameron  18:19

AUD?

Tony  18:21

Yeah, it’s in AUD. I can get a graph in five-minute inter­vals.

Cameron  18:25

That sounds like a good use of your time.

Tony  18:29

That’s right. I could be answer­ing ques­tions about the Bible instead.

Cameron  18:33

Well, this is inter­est­ing. It could be a buy or maybe it’s a Josephine, actu­al­ly.

Tony  18:38

It’s def­i­nite­ly a Josephine, it’s less than the last month close.

Cameron  18:41

Well, not on my chart. It was down, but it’s back up now.

Tony  18:48

Oh, you’re right, sor­ry. I was look­ing at the week­ly.

Cameron  18:50

Yeah, I think it’s below the sec­ond buy line. I think when I looked yes­ter­day, it was on the sec­ond buy line, but now it’s not. It’s below it.

Tony  19:03

Yes, I’ve got it just below the buy line.

Cameron  19:05

Sec­ond buy line?

Tony  19:07

Why are you say­ing sec­ond?

Cameron  19:09

Because it was a Josephine. If you go back to… the price slipped in July and August. It went back up in Sep­tem­ber, now we’re cur­rent­ly in Octo­ber. But it was a Josephine, so it needs to cross the sec­ond buy line, right? So, I’m draw­ing a sec­ond buy line H1 July ’20, H2 April ’22. And then it’s still below that line.

Tony  19:34

Yes, I agree. Just help me out here, why is there a sec­ond buy line? Where’s the first buy line?

Cameron  19:40

Well, the first buy line would have gone back aways.

Tony  19:46

Yep, going back aways. You’re right, sor­ry. Prob­a­bly around August 11 and March 16 some­thing. Gotcha. Okay.

Cameron  19:53

Yep. But it’s been a Josephine, so it needs to cross the sec­ond one.

Tony  19:56

Yeah, it’s get­ting close.

Cameron  19:58

Okay, so I’m gonna make a note of that it’s a Josephine, not a buy. Any oth­er com­mod­i­ty changes that you’re aware of? I think they’re the only two things that are changes. Iron ore it still a sell, crude oil is still a buy, cop­per’s a sell, plat­inum’s a sell, zinc’s a sell, mag­ne­sium, man­ganese, steel, sell, sell, sell, sell, sell. Yikes.

Tony  20:23

Looks like the com­mod­i­ty cycle’s end­ed, does­n’t it?

Cameron  20:26

Yeah, except oil. Oil is still going gang­busters, though slow­ing down a bit, I think.

Tony  20:32

Oh, yeah, def­i­nite­ly.

Cameron  20:34

Okay, the last thing I’ve got to talk about is the PE clar­i­fi­ca­tions in the Bible.

Tony  20:40

Yay.

Cameron  20:43

I’m not going to waste too much time on it, but I’ve been doing some work with Chris Strat­ton, QAV club mem­ber, who’s been try­ing to code some of the man­u­al data checks along with the rest of the check­list to auto­mate it. And he’s doing a great job, real­ly impressed with the work that he’s done. But in doing this work, it’s raised some ques­tions about some arcane, unusu­al exam­ples with PEs when we’re try­ing to do the low­est PE in the last six halves ques­tion. So, I’ve added a few bul­let points to that in the Bible that peo­ple might want to go check out if you get a tricky one. For exam­ple, if there’s only one report­ed PE, and it was a recent one, but the cur­rent PE that is today’s PE and it’s low­er than the last one, etc., etc. What do we do? How do we score it? I just got Tony to clar­i­fy a cou­ple of those, so if you’re inter­est­ed in how to score low­est PE things in some weird sit­u­a­tions, go and have a look in the Bible. There’s a cou­ple of new updates there.

Tony  21:48

I can guar­an­tee no one’s gonna look at that.

Cameron  21:50

Come on, Tony. I will.

Tony  21:53

I had to put a robe on and go “blessed are the PEs. Here are the ten com­mand­ments on PEs.”

Cameron  22:02

Yeah, it’s a bit like that. I’m sor­ry. Hey, well, you know, you start­ed this shit, man.

Tony  22:12

I was loosey and goosey before I had to put it all down. I was just mak­ing the rules up on the fly to suit, mak­ing mon­ey.

Cameron  22:27

Well, I’ll tell you, you know, this is what start­ing a reli­gion is like.

Tony  22:30

I don’t get any tax ben­e­fits either.

Cameron  22:34

Well, not yet. But you will once we have five hun­dred devo­tees, I think you need.

Tony  22:39

Is that all?

Cameron  22:43

Well, that might be to start a polit­i­cal par­ty. I think it’s still five hun­dred to start a reli­gion.

Tony  22:48

Either way, tax deductible.

Cameron  22:49

Yeah, we can do both. The QAV par­ty. What would your plat­form be?

Tony  22:56

Run for chan­cel­lor of the Tory par­ty in the UK. They’ll take any­one, seri­ous­ly; they had four in the last two months.

Cameron  23:05

Same with Prime Min­is­ters, too. So, what have you got on your list of things to talk about before we do some Q&A?

Tony  23:12

I just had some stock updates to talk about. So, first cab off the rank was Qan­tas giv­en its con­fes­sion sea­son. So, Qan­tas came out and said that the ana­lysts were guid­ing their prof­it esti­mates to low­ly, and that prof­it could be two to three times high­er. And so, Qan­tas went up 10% last week, which was good because I hold it myself.

Cameron  23:33

Hold on, how’s it con­fes­sion sea­son? We just came out of report­ing sea­son, how is it con­fes­sion sea­son already?

Tony  23:40

Because they’re going into their AGMs, and so they use that as anoth­er chance to update the mar­ket on what’s hap­pened in the last few months, on the start of the finan­cial year.

Cameron  23:50

Yeah. Okay.

Tony  23:52

So, again, it’s con­tin­u­ous dis­clo­sure, but they do tend to hap­pen a lot more around AGM time because they’re mak­ing pub­lic state­ments and they’re being asked ques­tions. Yeah. Inter­est­ing­ly enough, though, like, as you know from our place, I can see all the skies over Syd­ney. I can’t see a plane there at the moment. Pre-COVID I would count them, there would always be eight air­crafts in the sky. You know, four on the glide path in, four tak­ing off. I can see none out there at the moment. So, Qan­tas reck­ons they’re back up to 100% domes­tic capac­i­ty and 70% over­seas capac­i­ty. They must be fly­ing from Alice Springs, because they are not fly­ing from Syd­ney. I’m call­ing bull­shit on that.

Cameron  24:32

And they’re charg­ing a wound­ed bull. I was telling you off air, I went to buy tick­ets to fly Chris­sy and Fox and I down to Mel­bourne the oth­er day, and it was insane. I was like “screw this. I can’t afford this. Like what, am I sit­ting on a gold­en seat and being spooned caviar?” It’s ridicu­lous.

Tony  24:56

Yeah, it is. We flew to Mel­bourne a lit­tle while ago and it was expen­sive, incred­i­bly expen­sive. Yeah.

Cameron  25:02

Crazy.

Tony  25:03

So, I think that’s prob­a­bly the more per­ti­nent thing for Qan­tas, is they’re just mak­ing mon­ey hand over fist on mar­gin rather than vol­ume at the moment.

Cameron  25:11

Yeah, well, look, they’ve had a cou­ple of rough years, the air­lines. I don’t begrudge them an oppor­tu­ni­ty to try and make some mon­ey, but I mean, I’m not pay­ing that kind of mon­ey to fly. It’s ridicu­lous. Unless it’s an emer­gency.

Tony  25:23

So, that means the Mel­bourne din­ner is off, does it?

Cameron  25:26

Ah, no, you don’t get out of it that easy, TK.

Tony  25:32

It’s just me and the QAV sub­scribers down there dish­ing the dirt on Cameron Reil­ly.

Cameron  25:38

Well, I said, you know, they just want you to be there. But as I sug­gest­ed, maybe we could do it down at Cape Schanck, so you don’t need to dri­ve to Mel­bourne.

Tony  25:46

Yeah, cool.

Cameron  25:47

So, Mel­bourne lis­ten­ers, email me and let me know if you’d like to go down and have din­ner with Tony at Cape Schanck.

Tony  25:55

Or even lunch.

Cameron  25:56

 Or lunch, yeah.

Tony  25:57

Then you can dri­ve back.

Cameron  25:59

Okay. Or they could stay overnight and play some golf.

Tony  26:02

Yeah. All options.

Tony  26:05

What else? Apol­lo Tourism?

Tony  26:07

Apol­lo Tourism, yeah. So, they’ve jumped again as well. So, there was an AFR arti­cle a cou­ple of days ago about a com­pa­ny that they own, I think half of, called Cam­pli­fy, which is like an Airbnb for RVs and car­a­vans. Any­way, Cam­pli­fy’s just tak­en over a com­pa­ny in Ger­many as part of its expan­sion into Europe. The ana­lysts love Cam­pli­fy, it’s the growth option in this sec­tor, and now it’s expand­ing world­wide they’re lov­ing it even more. And Apol­lo owns half, so it’s a hap­py camper at the moment.

Tony  26:09

Yeah, we’ve always liked ATL. They haven’t been good to us when we bought them for the port­fo­lio, but we’ve always liked them as a com­pa­ny.

Tony  26:59

Yeah, well, we took them off the buy list because they had a qual­i­fied order dur­ing COVID, but that seems to have worked out well. Actu­al­ly, I’ve got Rud­dy going through the qual­i­fied audits for the last cou­ple of years to see if they’re still work­ing for us, because I’ve read this ques­tion mark about COVID and qual­i­fied audits. For a lot of com­pa­nies, audi­tors were say­ing, “well, you know, COVID is pret­ty bad, and you shut down, you got­ta con­tin­ue to oper­ate as a going con­cern.” But then the com­pa­nies got splashed with cash and they all sur­vived, so they’ve all, you know, the share prices have risen quite well. Which made me won­der whether we should con­tin­ue with qual­i­fied audits. But Rud­dy tells me there still were two or three com­pa­nies that went broke or got tak­en over. So, it’s still a good red flag indi­ca­tor, I think. I think with COVID it’s a bit dif­fer­ent. Any­way, I’m wait­ing for Rud­dy to fin­ish that analy­sis so I can go through it. So, ATL doing well. Doing well, ATL. And the last thing I want­ed to talk about was Howard Marks. I’m not real­ly a fan of Howard, but any­way, I do know he’s made a lot of mon­ey out of being a deep val­ue investor, but basi­cal­ly being a vul­ture fund oper­a­tor. So, you know, he buys the most when the mar­kets at its “blood on the streets” type lev­el. I did see an arti­cle say­ing that he’s going to be in Aus­tralia soon doing what’s been called “fire­side chats” with ana­lysts and poten­tial investors, because he’s rais­ing new funds. So, that’s prob­a­bly an indi­ca­tion that he at least sees a sil­ver lin­ing com­ing up in the mar­kets, any­way. So, that’s it for stocks in the news and peo­ple we’ve talked about in the news, and I just want­ed to then do a pulled pork on a com­pa­ny called Silk Logis­tics.

Cameron  28:40

I bought Silk Logis­tics yes­ter­day, good.

Tony  28:43

Ah, okay.

Cameron  28:44

I hope you give them a good pulled pork. Don’t put the kibosh on them for me.

Tony  28:49

I’m going to do a good pulled pork on Silk Logis­tics. I picked them because I think they’ve just come onto the buy list recent­ly.

Cameron  28:56

Yeah, and they’re a rel­a­tive­ly new float. They’ve only been around a year or two, I think.

Tony  29:01

Yeah, looks like they float­ed in the mid­dle of last year. So, we don’t have a whole heap of data for them. So, recent list­ing, you’re right. His­to­ry of Silk is they’re an amal­ga­ma­tion of var­i­ous dif­fer­ent truck­ing com­pa­nies. So, first of all, it’s a logis­tics com­pa­ny and they label them­selves a port logis­tics com­pa­ny and a freight com­pa­ny. So, I think they man­age the import/export logis­tics and then get it to your des­ti­na­tion some­where in Aus­tralia. But they have emerged as an amal­ga­ma­tion of Doolan’s Haulage, Bunker Freight, WA Freight Lines, Kagan Logis­tics and Hoff­man trans­port. So, all those com­pa­nies joined, and then eigh­teen months ago — or mid­dle of last year — they had an IPO and they have acquired one or two com­pa­nies since then; one’s called Rock Trans­port. So, you may have seen those brands on trucks in the past, they’re all rebrand­ed now as Silk. That’s the com­pa­ny. The num­bers score quite well, only a small cap stock though; their ADT is $41,000, so this won’t suit every­one, but may suit some. The mar­ket cap is $176 mil­lion, and I’m using a share price of $2.20, which is less than the con­sen­sus share price esti­mate for this com­pa­ny. Finan­cial health in Stock Doc­tor is sat­is­fac­to­ry and recov­er­ing, and we love the recov­er­ing ones so scores one for sat­is­fac­to­ry and two for recov­er­ing. Real­ly good price to oper­at­ing cash flow, Pr/OpCaf of 3.83 times, so that’s why it’s scor­ing well for us. The price is above IV1, less than IV2, but not half of IV2 so it gets a score of one there, and it’s also above our debt equi­ty per share plus 30%. So, it’s pricey on some of those met­rics, but not on the oper­at­ing cash flow one which is one we focus on. It’s also got fore­cast growth of 67%, so that’s pret­ty heavy stuff. But giv­en that we’re not pay­ing much for the shares, if it does­n’t come out at that kind of lev­el, we’re prob­a­bly not going to retrace too much, but any­way. It does score well on that growth over PE matric; we have a hur­dle of 1.5 and this is scor­ing 4.67, so very good. And pay­ing a decent yield of 3.86%, less than the bank mort­gage rates so we’re not scor­ing it for that. But again, it’s a com­pa­ny which is con­fi­dent enough to pay at a decent yield but is also fore­cast­ing tremen­dous growth. So, we talked about one last week, a com­pa­ny that was in the sweet spot of both yield and growth, and this is anoth­er one of those. And just like last week, the direc­tors in this com­pa­ny are hold­ing a large share­hold­ing. So, direc­tors hold 28% of the com­pa­ny, and although I don’t recog­nise their names, look­ing at their bios they’ve had a long and expe­ri­enced career in logis­tics, so you’d have to think they know what they’re doing. In terms of man­u­al­ly entered data, even though we only have two halves to report on this the cur­rent PE is the low­est, so it scores there. It’s a recent upturn, so scores there. It’s con­sis­tent­ly increas­ing equi­ty, again only for two halves, but it’s still going up. So, all in all, this com­pa­ny scores well on qual­i­ty. It actu­al­ly gets a score of 106%, which sounds a bit strange because 100 should be the max, but a lot of the scores were giv­ing it are twos rather than ones, things like direc­tors’ hold­ings and a recov­er­ing finan­cial health. It gets a QAV score of 0.28 which makes it fair­ly high on the buy list. I just want­ed to high­light a cou­ple of risks, though, for logis­tics com­pa­nies. Not that I have great expe­ri­ence in them, but cer­tain­ly had a lit­tle bit with the Shell fleet, and of course if the oil price keeps ris­ing that will be a big cost impost to them, which will hurt them. They may have the price of oil hedged though; I did­n’t do a deep­er dive to look at that. But that’s a risk. And of course, if COVID returns we saw what hap­pened to the inter­na­tion­al freight mar­kets when there were COVID prob­lems and things were just jammed up. So, a cou­ple of risks there. But all in all, I think it scores well and looks good, so take a look.

Cameron  33:15

We have a Q&A jin­gle?

Cameron  33:15

Thank you, TK. Share price is up since I bought them yes­ter­day. So, well, this this episode has­n’t gone out yet, but you know, after you do the pulled pork on it who knows what will hap­pen. Tony says it’s a good one, every­one dumps it. Just seems to be what hap­pens. All right, time for some Q&A. Insert Q&A jin­gle here.

Cameron  33:48

Not yet, but we should have one. This one’s from Steven: “hi Cameron. I’ve looked back on some old newslet­ters and have noticed that Tony has always been invest­ed in WAM,” not the George Michael band but, Wil­son Asset Man­age­ment. Although I know Tony’s total­ly invest­ed in George Michaels. You’re a big Andrew Ridge­ley fan, though, I seem to recall. You’re always like “uh, George Michael, pos­er. Andrew Ridge­ley, he was the real mag­ic in WHAM.”

Cameron  34:16

He did noth­ing, Andrew Ridge­ley, he lit­er­al­ly did noth­ing. Did­n’t sing, did­n’t play instru­ments, did­n’t write songs. He was just there to look cute. Okay. “Tony has always been invest­ed in WAM, even after the five-year month­ly trend was bro­ken at the start of the year. Is Tony fol­low­ing a core and satel­lite port­fo­lio where a big por­tion of his port­fo­lio is in pas­sive invest­ments such as WAM and the satel­lite part of the port­fo­lio is invest­ed in QAV stocks that out­per­form? If Tony is hap­py to share, I’m inter­est­ed to know why he has held WAM even though it broke the five-year month­ly trend, and what por­tion of his port­fo­lio is made up of WAM. It also seems that WAMs long-term over­all per­for­mance since 1999 isn’t that great at 87% gain com­pared to Tony’s over­all port­fo­lio per­for­mance of 19% per annum. Kind regards, Steven.”

Tony  34:16

Qui­et achiev­er.

Tony  35:10

Yeah, so Steven, this is just a his­tor­i­cal lega­cy. First of all, I don’t own any WAM shares, and I could prob­a­bly take it out of the dis­clo­sure page because it does­n’t make a dif­fer­ence. In fact, I think I would have less than $2,000 of my port­fo­lio in WAM. My port­fo­lio is 99.999 recur­ring per­cent invest­ed in QAV type stocks, not in WAM. Look, I guess it’s a soft spot for me. I’ve been a WAM share­hold­er soon after it list­ed and fol­low the sto­ry, and peo­ple have lis­tened to me talk about going along to the ear­ly investor pre­sen­ta­tions when there was just a hand­ful of peo­ple with Jeff Wil­son. And I’ve always liked Jef­f’s take on invest­ing, he’s always been a good shoot­er in the mar­ket. His process is val­ue invest­ing. He adds one more step, which is to look for a cat­a­lyst before he invests in a stock. So, a rea­son why he thinks the stock will go up, not just regres­sion to the mean. So, I’ve always found that fas­ci­nat­ing. But then his style is to go and talk to hun­dreds and hun­dreds of com­pa­ny man­age­ment par­tic­i­pants every year, and so he gets an insight into what the cat­a­lysts could be. And I don’t do that, so it was an inter­est­ing take on val­ue invest­ing to fol­low him. In terms of per­for­mance, I agree that the cap­i­tal per­for­mance on WAM has been ter­ri­ble over the years. But it’s not always about cap­i­tal per­for­mance for WAM. They kind of piv­ot­ed, maybe ten years ago, and became a high div­i­dend pay­er. So, they’ve tried to posi­tion them­selves more now as being a reli­able yield stock for retirees or any­body who needs a reli­able income. And from mem­o­ry, they’re yield­ing some­thing like about 6 or 7%, and that grossed up for frank­ing cred­its, is quite attrac­tive. So, it’s more like an index fund from that point of view, in that they’re pay­ing a sol­id steady yield. For a long time, they also issued options. So, Jef­f’s a very savvy oper­a­tor, he knows as the fund man­ag­er he’s paid based not only on per­for­mance, but on the amount of mon­ey under invest­ment. So, he’s now of late become a preda­tor in the list­ed invest­ment com­pa­ny space, and he’s been acquir­ing funds and merg­ing with funds to put more funds under his man­age­ment, and there­fore line his pock­ets. You know, can’t blame him for that, but you should be aware of it. But up until maybe the last ten years, he was con­tin­u­ous­ly rais­ing mon­ey to increase the mon­ey invest­ed in WAM by issu­ing options. And so, he had the right to buy more shares in the com­pa­ny and the option was usu­al­ly issued at the start of the year and would expire at the end of the year and would have a strike price which is maybe 5 or 10% above. Usu­al­ly is was about what the div­i­dend yield was above the share price. And so, and it was trad­able, so he list­ed them. So, you could, if you want­ed to, take a sec­ond div­i­dend by sell­ing your options into the mar­ket, or you could wait and see if they’re in the mon­ey and then exer­cise them and put more funds into WAM, but make a prof­it on doing that. So, there was a cou­ple of dif­fer­ent ways that as a share­hold­er of WAM we made mon­ey. It’s dif­fer­ent today, it’s com­plete­ly about the div­i­dends. But yes, Stephen, not a QAV stock. I hold them to get their comms and to go along to their events, which now are a lot dif­fer­ent to what they were orig­i­nal­ly. You used to be able to ask ques­tions of Jeff; you still can now, but there’s about a thou­sand hands in the air when you go along to their annu­al road­show so it’s a lot hard­er and a lot less per­son­al. But yeah, I still hold them out of nos­tal­gia, and COVID per­mit­ting, I’ll still go along to their AGM and see what they have to say. One more thing I should say too, sor­ry. Two oth­er rea­sons why I like keep­ing WAM in the loop, so to speak, in terms of get­ting their comms, was Jeff would also… If you looked at where his cash posi­tion lay – so, he was some­one who would sell stocks and not buy them again if he thought the mar­ket was going to go down. So, as Jeff built cash it was a rea­son­ably reli­able indi­ca­tor to say that he thought the mar­ket was going to depress, and then he would rede­ploy when he thought we were at the bot­tom. So, I would­n’t say that that was always cor­rect, and I would­n’t say that I used it myself, but it’s one of those things you file away in the back of your mind. You know, like all the sto­ries you read in the Fin Review, they’re there if you do need to make a call, I guess, that you’ve got some­one who’s a pro­fes­sion­al out there in the mar­ket doing some­thing in that direc­tion. And just going back, you know, before QAV, before pod­casts, peo­ple like Jeff and his reg­u­lar com­mu­ni­ca­tions and Roger Mont­gomery, they were like my QAV club, right? They were just peo­ple who were there, they were val­ue investors, they were stay­ing the course, they would say good things or inter­est­ing things that would be a good sound­ing board for my own deci­sions and when you’re doing it by your­self, that’s an impor­tant role they were play­ing. So, I guess because of all those things I still hold WAM in my port­fo­lio, but not much.

Cameron  40:11

Sen­ti­men­tal.

Tony  40:12

Sen­ti­men­tal, that’s right.

Cameron  40:15

Speak­ing of meet­ing with CEOs, did you want to men­tion your CEO lunch?

Tony  40:20

It was­n’t a lunch; it was just a cof­fee catch up. Yeah. Alex organ­ised with the man­ag­ing direc­tor of Soul Pat­tin­son’s, which was one of the stocks that some­one had a ques­tion on and it’s almost on the buy list, I think it’s got a QAV score of about 0.08 at the moment. So, it may creep on. But it was great. Todd Bar­low the chaps name is, and he was anoth­er per­son who was a great sound­ing board and answered all my ques­tions, and we had a great dis­cus­sion about what they’re doing, what the mar­kets are doing. And, you know, inter­est­ing dis­cus­sion around the coal mar­ket, because that’s a large part of my port­fo­lio now and it’s a large part of oth­er’s port­fo­lios, I guess. So, he’s kind­ly invit­ed to come on the show and repeat the per­for­mance and that’ll be hap­pen­ing at some stage late Novem­ber, we’ll get him on. He’s quite a busy per­son, of course. But yeah, I real­ly, real­ly enjoyed my time with him. It was a great sto­ry that we’ll hear about when we talk to Todd, but just a dif­fer­ent approach, again, and Todd can explain it bet­ter. But they came out of the chemists’ chains, Soul Pat­tin­sons, which even­tu­al­ly had some oth­er invest­ments and so was set up as a fund that oth­er peo­ple could invest in. But basi­cal­ly, it’s only ever three or four invest­ments which have grown into large ones over time; TPG being one of them, New Hope Coal being one of them. I think, maybe API, the retail Price­line chain may be one of them. Any­way, but they only ever had three or four. And so, there­fore, even though it was a list­ed invest­ment com­pa­ny it did­n’t attract insti­tu­tion­al investors in LICs because it was­n’t oper­at­ing like an index fund. It has achieved above index per­for­mance over a long peri­od of time, so it’s been well man­aged. They’ve obvi­ous­ly copped a bit of flack from the ESG brigade about their coal hold­ings, and so they spun off New Hope — although they still retain own­er­ship, a large own­er­ship stake in New Hope, but not direct con­trol of it. And then they merged with Mil­ton, which was a large index-like LIC. So, there’s a few dif­fer­ent things going on there at the moment, and they’re also devot­ing time to try and find replace­ments to those large stocks like your TPGs and New Hope Coals that they hope can repli­cate that long term growth sto­ry. So, just great to pick the brains with some­one who’s oper­at­ing a com­pa­ny like that. Very inter­est­ing. And I guess, too, if peo­ple have any ques­tions, send them through. We’ll hap­pi­ly put them to Todd in a mon­th’s time.

Cameron  42:40

Yeah. That’s very good. All right. Mov­ing right along. Josh. So, Josh emailed and asked if you have any advice on how to find a good finan­cial advi­sor. I said to Josh, look, the only thing I would sug­gest is find a rich one.

Tony  43:00

And then they stop being finan­cial advis­ers.

Cameron  43:02

Exact­ly. Don’t take any finan­cial advice from some­body who’s not rich, but how you find a rich one, good luck. But do you have any sug­ges­tions on how to find a Finan­cial Advi­sor, Tony?

Tony  43:12

I don’t. I mean, I’ve always gone via my accoun­tant. So, for a long time, that was Price Water­house and ANZ pri­vate bank had a ser­vice. I go along and lis­ten to them, and they throw up ideas, but I gen­er­al­ly make my own mind up, which Josh needs to do as well. Oth­er than that, just a cou­ple of things on finan­cial advi­sors. You’re right about get­ting advice from — what’s the War­ren Buf­fett say­ing? Peo­ple who dri­ve to work on Wall Street in a Rolls Royce are tak­ing finan­cial advice from peo­ple who go to Wall Street on the sub­way, and that seems wrong. So, yeah, I’d be care­ful about mak­ing sure the per­son who is giv­ing advice a) has some expe­ri­ence, and b) has had some finan­cial suc­cess them­selves, and I don’t real­ly know how to do that. Maybe just ask them some ques­tions or get them to dri­ve to your house and see what kind of car they turn up in, I guess. So, first of all, I think accoun­tants are very good in this space rather than finan­cial advi­sors, and accoun­tants tend to have to have a high­er qual­i­fi­ca­tion than a finan­cial advis­er. So, you know, you may pay more for an accoun­tant to give you finan­cial advice, but I’ve always struck up a good rela­tion­ship with an accoun­tant. When they’re doing my tax returns and stuff, they’re the ones who then say, “oh, by the way, did you know about XY and Z that was avail­able to you? You might want to think about struc­tur­ing dif­fer­ent­ly or claim­ing a deduc­tion you weren’t nec­es­sar­i­ly claim­ing.” So, that’s how I’ve done it over the years. Obvi­ous­ly, rec­om­men­da­tions from friends would be impor­tant. And again, if lis­ten­ers out there have rec­om­men­da­tions on a good finan­cial advi­sor, please pass them through. I’m sure the finan­cial advi­sor would­n’t mind, and I think lis­ten­ers like Josh would ben­e­fit from it. My last com­ment would be to try and match the age of the finan­cial advi­sor to your­self. So, the first good accoun­tant I came across was before real­ly get­ting into the stock mar­ket, although I had a few stocks, but had an invest­ment prop­er­ty. He gave a lot of good advice around that, neg­a­tive­ly gear­ing and adver­tis­ing dif­fer­ent costs, etc., etc. But he was an old­er guy and soon left the indus­try after about five years, so I did­n’t have the ben­e­fit of estab­lish­ing a long-term rela­tion­ship with him. And like I said before, I don’t know if I’d take some­one straight out of finan­cial advi­so­ry school. Even though they’ll stick around for a long time, they prob­a­bly haven’t seen enough to give you real­ly good advice. So, my oth­er advice would be to try and match ages, at least rel­a­tive­ly, with the per­son you’re get­ting advice from, so you can grow old with them and not have to chop and change and find anoth­er one in five years’ time if that per­son retires. So, they’re my only com­ments, but I’d start with your local accoun­tant, or with the account you’re using now.

Cameron  45:52

I know that we’ve got some QAV club mem­bers that are finan­cial advi­sors.

Tony  45:56

Well, there you go.

Cameron  45:56

And, you know for a com­mis­sion, we will rec­om­mend them.

Tony  46:00

We could do the QAV Thun­der­dome.

Cameron  46:05

Oh, speak­ing of which, I watched Mad Max 2 the oth­er day. I know this should be in after-hours but watched it on the big TV. You know, it’s been a few years since I’ve seen Mad Max 2. Holds up, bloody good. Bloody good. Like, just fills me with joy, watch­ing Mad Max 2. It’s just one of those intrin­si­cal­ly joy­ful exer­cis­es. Still my favourite per­for­mance is the Fer­al Kid, Emil Gin­ty, or Flinty, or what­ev­er the name was.

Tony  46:39

Real­ly?

Cameron  46:40

Yeah, the Fer­al Kid is so great. He’s so fer­al. It’s just such a great per­for­mance, this lit­tle ani­mal kid. When Max gives him the lit­tle music box, and just the excite­ment like a mon­key, the excite­ment in his face and what­ev­er, just great. And Bruce Spencer as the Gyro Cap­tain.

Tony  47:00

Yeah, he was great.

Cameron  47:00

Just, you know, they’re all great.

Tony  47:02

They are. Arty White­ly, Mike Pre­ston, the War­rior Woman. What’s her name again?

Cameron  47:08

The mod­el? Yeah, she gets a few arrows in her when they’re try­ing to make the big get­away. Yeah, it’s just all great. And Wes. I mean, you know, Wes is just great. His eyes. Any­way, so great. Just so much, so much joy. No, but seri­ous­ly, get­ting back to finan­cial advi­sors. If you have a good one or you are a good one, you know, I think whilst I’m being slight­ly face­tious by say­ing “find a rich one”, find one that under­stands QAV would be the next best thing. Like, some­body who’s on board with QAV, under­stands, you know, your sort of mantras around invest­ing, would be good. We should have, you know, we should have some QAV friend­ly finan­cial advi­sors on stand­by. I’m sur­prised we don’t get this ques­tion more often, actu­al­ly, “do you know any good finan­cial advi­sors?”

Tony  47:55

I think we did once before because some­one had to go and get finan­cial advi­sors sign off before doing some­thing. It might have been one of our Bon­di lis­ten­ers. Any­way.

Cameron  48:05

Samuel: “I am plan­ning to be away for two weeks out of reach of the inter­net and unable to trade. TK did cov­er that top­ic some time ago say­ing in case he’s not there for a long peri­od of time, he left instruc­tions to move the mon­ey to LICs like AFIC and oth­ers. Just won­der­ing if he would do the same if he was away from the inter­net for a two-week peri­od of time.”

Tony  48:25

I saw this ques­tion and I’m strug­gling to think where that has ever applied. I think I’ve always been… If I’ve gone camp­ing or some­thing, it’s been for a week, and I’ve tak­en the risk. And I think I prob­a­bly would for two weeks as well.

Cameron  48:40

Wait, wait, wait, wait, you’ve gone camp­ing?

Tony  48:43

I used to do a lot of bush walk­ing and camp­ing. Yeah.

Cameron  48:47

Stay­ing at the Hilton isn’t camp­ing, you know?

Tony  48:51

Jen­ny’s not a fan, so we stopped it after we got mar­ried. But yeah, I used to love cross coun­try ski­ing…

Cameron  48:57

Wait, so you’ve been mar­ried for how many years?

Tony  49:02

Twen­ty four.

Cameron  49:04

When did you start your QAV invest­ing?

Tony  49:06

A cou­ple of years before that.

Cameron  49:08

Right. So, you haven’t been cav­ing in twen­ty-five years?

Tony  49:11

True. There you go. That’s what I said, I strug­gle to think of a time when I’ve been away from the inter­net for a long peri­od of time, so I can’t real­ly answer it from expe­ri­ence. It’s a good ques­tion, though.

Cameron  49:22

In the­o­ry, if you were going to Mars for two weeks…

Tony  49:26

Well, okay, so it’d prob­a­bly be case by case. Like, you know, you’ve got all of the trans­ac­tion costs and cap­i­tal gains tax if you decide to sell out of your posi­tions and put it into an LIC or an ETF. So, I’d be tak­ing that into account. I don’t know, I might be tempt­ed to do it for some of the ones that were at a loss or did­n’t have cap­i­tal gains tax issues, but I’d prob­a­bly just take the risk. But it’s a risk because you know, the mar­ket could drop 20% in two weeks. But the odds of that hap­pen­ing, it’s hap­pened like once or twice in twen­ty or thir­ty years. But it is a risk. Chances are if the mar­ket dropped 20%, even if you’re off the grid and don’t have the inter­net, some­one’s gonna walk past and go, “shit. You see Wall Street last night?”

Cameron  50:13

Yeah, but if you’re off the net, you can’t do any­thing about it. You know, maybe we need a QAV babysit­ting ser­vice. We’ll babysit, or not us, but some­body in the com­mu­ni­ty who knows what they’re doing could say, “yeah, we’ll babysit your port­fo­lio for you. Just give me give me all of your logins…

Tony  50:31

Finan­cial pow­er of author­i­ty.

Cameron  50:32

“Sign this waiv­er, and we’ll make all your deci­sions for you.”

Tony  50:38

Good, that’s a good ques­tion. But not one I had to face myself so I can’t give you my expe­ri­ence. Sor­ry, Sam.

Cameron  50:44

Yeah, that’s tricky. I don’t know. Like, I don’t know where he’s going where he’s going to be off the inter­net for two weeks. No mobile recep­tion, even?

Tony  50:54

Buy a satel­lite phone. Or rig a satel­lite phone. Yeah, maybe he’s going to Antarc­ti­ca, but I think ships would still have Wi-Fi? I don’t know. Look, it’s a good ques­tion. I mean, I’ve been laid up in hos­pi­tal beds, but that’s usu­al­ly only for about two or three days after surgery, then you’re back home.

Cameron  51:10

That was when you did your tran­si­tion?

Tony  51:15

From growth investor to val­ue investor. I cut the bub­ble off.

Cameron  51:21

You had to have some­thing chopped off.

Tony  51:25

Took the bolts off.

Cameron  51:29

Well, sor­ry, Samuel. It’s a tricky one.

Tony  51:32

Yeah, good ques­tion, though.

Cameron  51:34

I mean, in the­o­ry if you did have a finan­cial advis­er, some­body you trust­ed, you could give them pow­er of attor­ney or a lawyer or some­body like that. But then they’re not going to know how to run QAV. You could just say, “look, Cameron will email you if you need to sell some­thing.”

Tony  51:49

Can’t get email.

Cameron  51:49

No, no, I email the lawyer.

Tony  51:51

Oh, right. Yeah.

Cameron  51:52

You leave it with the lawyer and then I con­tact your lawyer and say you should sell this, buy that.

Tony  51:57

Yeah. Could do that.

Cameron  51:58

For a fee, Samuel.

Tony  52:00

We could send car­ri­er pigeons out to wher­ev­er Sam’s going. Smoke sig­nals.

Cameron  52:06

Cou­ple of tin cans and a real­ly long piece of string. Sor­ry, Samuel, if any­one has any ideas for Sam, email me and let me know or jump on Face­book and let him know, he’s in the Face­book group.

Tony  52:17

Well, two weeks is a tricky ques­tion. Like, if it was six months I would prob­a­bly go to ETFs and LICs. But for two weeks, I’m not sure it’s worth the incur­rence of all the costs on the off chance that the mar­ket drops 20%

Cameron  52:28

Go some­where else on your hol­i­day, Samuel. I am going camp­ing in a cou­ple of weeks to a place where I don’t think there’ll be any inter­net, but its only for a few days over the week­end. All right. Well, that’s the main part of the show. Now we’re in the after hours, Tony.

Tony  52:43

Which is real­ly the main part of the show.

Cameron  52:45

It is the main part of the show. We do all that just to get after hours.

Tony  52:48

Cor­rect, yeah.

Cameron  52:49

So, I watched Mad Max 2…

Cameron  1:11:48

The QAV Pod­cast is a pro­duc­tion of Space­craft Pub­lish­ing Pro­pri­etary Lim­it­ed, autho­rised rep­re­sen­ta­tive of AFS sell 520442, AFS rep­re­sen­ta­tive num­ber 001292718. Please don’t make any invest­ment deci­sions based sole­ly on lis­ten­ing to this pod­cast. This is pre­sent­ed as gen­er­al advice only, not per­son­al finan­cial advice. We don’t know your per­son­al finan­cial cir­cum­stances. Please see a finan­cial plan­ner before mak­ing any invest­ing deci­sions.