QAV 510 Club

Cameron  00:00

Hey everyone, Cameron here from QAV. As I’m sure most of you have heard over the last couple of weeks, the guy who normally edits our show, Denis, is based in Ukraine and has obviously been dramatically affected by events of the last few weeks. He’s back at work, amazingly, already. He’s in another city, he’s moved from Kharkiv where he was originally when the war broke out — anyway, and offered to get back to work this week and edit our episode which he hasn’t been able to do for a few weeks. And I asked him to record a little bit about his personal experiences over the last couple of weeks, and he agreed to do that. So, a little bit different. We’ll get into investing in a minute, but I’m sure those of you that have been listening to the show for a while will appreciate hearing a little bit of our editor’s story. So here’s five minutes from Denis.

Dennis  01:08

Hi, guys. Hi, Cam. Hi, TK. This is Denis, I’m the editor of the podcast. I’m recording this on the phone, literally, so sorry for any problems with the audio quality but I left my microphone at home. I live in Kharkiv, Ukraine, the city you probably heard a lot about in the news lately. So, Cam suggested I record a small talk for the podcast about what we’ve been going through here and I couldn’t resist. I would love to share some info firsthand, almost. First of all, I want to thank all of you guys. Thank you, Cam, and thank you, TK, for supporting us, for supporting us and raising the funds. We received the money several days ago, and this helped us a lot. I managed to evacuate my mother and my smaller brother from our home in Kharkiv. They’re currently in Poland. We managed to evacuate with my partner to Khmelnytskyi. This is the safe region in Ukraine. So, we’re alive, we’re fine. I’m happy to get back to work. So, a little bit of our personal stories. I live on the northern edge of Kharkiv, the closest point to the Russian border is only about 45 kilometres from my home to Belgrade, a Russian city. So, the first explosions were really close to me — like one or two kilometres away — and immediately people started running out of their houses, jumping into their cars driving away. Massive jams on the road. And there was a fight, there was a fight, and I had a clear view from my window — I live on the tenth floor. Like literally in about two or three kilometres away from me there was a huge fight, the first attack on Kharkiv, and we spent I think about a week in our house in the city under constant shellings. It was hell. It was hell, it was very hard psychologically, it was very hard physically, we couldn’t even eat because of stress. But yeah, we’re all right and we’re safe. Some of our relatives are still in Kharkiv, some managed to leave like my mom and brother, but it’s hard to convince people to leave their homes and my sister and my father are still in the city. They don’t want to leave, they want to run away. My grandmother is also in the city. And it’s almost impossible, almost impossible to convince people to leave. Some just want to wait it out, some are, some are staying to help, and some just don’t want to leave their homes. For the older people it’s the second war in their lives, with the first one being the World War II. And for the young ones, this is the second time Russia destroys their home as there are lots of refugees from Donbas region in Kharkiv and they just have no place to go. They don’t want to run. They don’t want to run away from the war for the second time. So, lots of people stay there, lots of people evacuated. This is, in short, our personal story. As for the situation overall, well, everyone here we’re waiting for this right now. The whole world sees that Putin is out of his mind. We have been living with this madman at our borders our whole life. Some of us literally their whole life. Putin is 22 years in power. And, after 2014 we knew this was going to happen one day or another, so our military was like completely ready for this event — for the invasion. And right now, Russia’s failed to capture any major city, they’ve suffered great losses. They’re low morale, low food, low ammunition, all they’re doing right now is just causing terror, causing destruction. They can’t really do anything else, because the moment they get closer to the cities they get completely blown away and immediately pushed back. So, we hope that this won’t go on for too long. The city of Khakiv suffered, like, huge destruction. I think my house was struck by missiles about three times. The last time I saw photos of my apartment, there were no windows in it. It just was blown away. And the last time I saw photos of my house on the internet, there were just, I think, three or four holes in the building. It’s still standing well, and right now I don’t know if it’s in one piece. The area, that area is constantly shelled from the Russian territory and our army can’t really fight back there. They can’t fire back because this will be considered as an attack on Russian’s territory. So, yeah, nothing we can really do there. We just wait. We volunteer. We work on the informational frontline, on the financial front line, we’re donating to our army. We’re helping everyone, like literally the whole country is volunteering, the whole country is doing something to survive through this right now. And we stay united, we stay strong. With support from you guys, with support from your governments, from your countries, we will definitely win this, this horrible, unjustified war. And I want to once again thank you all for the support, for the direct financial support for me, and thank you all for supporting Ukraine.

Cameron  07:39

Welcome to the show, Tony. Episode 510, recorded this day 15th of March 2022. It’s currently 2:14pm Brisbane time, 3:14pm Sydney time, and you are back in Sydney time. How does it feel to be back in the sky Palace after several months away, TK?

Tony  08:04

Yeah, it feels strange. It really does. Being in a busy urban environment again who’s really paying no attention to mask wearing, social distancing, COVID at all, even though there’s still 13, 14, 15,000 new cases a day. Yeah, so, I’ll get used to that. But yeah, different. Very different. And it’s been raining for weeks down here. It’s fine today, but it rained yesterday. It’s due the rain every day next week. So, golf looks hard.

Cameron  08:34

Is the flooding abating down there? 

Tony  08:37

Yeah. I mean, the rains only light now, but it’s just persistent. 

Cameron  08:40

Well, I’m glad that you’re back because we have good internet again. And you got my Christmas present. Have you tasted my Christmas present yet?

Tony  08:49

I haven’t yet, sorry. 

Cameron  08:51

Come on, man! I’ve been waiting months for you to taste it.

Tony  08:56

It’s truffle hot sauce, if anyone’s wondering.

Cameron  08:59

Yeah: Truff, T-R-U-F-F. If you like your truffle and if you like your hot sauce. I want to see what you think. But we, like, ever since we discovered it a few months ago, we eat it like every day. Not a day goes past we don’t have it on something, like it’s one of the highlights of our day is putting Truff on something.

Cameron  09:16

Well, I haven’t cooked since I’ve been back. That’s one of the highlights of being back, we can get get deliveries again. 

Cameron  09:21

Yeah, yeah, enjoy it. 

Tony  09:23

I’ve cooked every day for three months, so it was good to have a break.

Cameron  09:26

Well, this episode of QAV is brought to you by the graphic design team inside the Department of Prime Minister and cabinet’s Women’s Network. I want to thank them for the huge amount of joy they’ve given me today. Somebody is laughing their ass off somewhere inside there. Congratulations to whoever pulled that one off, so to speak.

Tony  09:49

Yeah, look it up people. It’s pretty ordinary.

Cameron  09:52

It’s all over the news today, you can’t escape it. Before we get into other news, let’s talk about YAL, Yancoal. Now, this gets back to what we were talking about with grossing up dividends last week. For people that own YAL you’ll note that it’s had a massive drop off today. I think it’s down about 17-18% since last week. But when you go in and look at it, it went ex-div today and ex-special cash distribution. I still don’t really understand how that’s different from a dividend, but I guess there’s some technical reason why it’s not actually a dividend.

Tony  10:30

Yeah, generally it’s an ad hoc reason. So, I’m not familiar with Yancoal, but there’ll be a return of cash for something, like they’ve sold an asset for example. So, it’s not going to be ongoing. If they’re paying it out of profits it can be a dividend but the expectation is, at least from the from the owners, the shareholders, is that that would be an ongoing thing. And they can get a franking credit for it, the return of cash in most cases won’t have a franking credit.

Cameron  10:53

Well, both of these were zero franked for some reason.

Tony  10:56

Well, that means that they haven’t paid any tax, so they can’t pass on the franking credit for whatever reason. Either the company is loss making, or potentially their revenue’s all from overseas or the profit’s all from overseas so they haven’t paid any Australian tax to get a credit.

Cameron  11:10

Probably wouldn’t have been on our buy list last week if they hadn’t been making money, right? It’s possible but unlikely. Anyway, if you factor in-I the think the dividends 50 cents a share, the special cash is 20.4 cents a share, you factor in that 70 cents back into the share price and it actually hasn’t dropped. I think it’s down about 3% from where it was last week. So, it looks bad on the graph, but again, if you own it and you’re looking at that, well, by the time you hear this you probably will have already done something if you’re going to do it. But, you know, something I have to keep-I saw it drop today, went “holy shit” then panicked, and then remembered to check the dividend and was like, “okay, it’s cool.” 

Tony  11:51

Especially at this time of year after the results season people should be aware if you see things drop, check the dividends.

Cameron  11:59

If you see something, say something, but don’t sell something until you check the dividend. Copper price today, Tony, have you had a look at where it’s at? Yesterday when we were doing the checklist we looked at it, you said it’s touching the sell line but it’s not quite a sell yet. Just wondering if you’ve had a look since then?

Tony  12:18

No, not at all. I’ve just ignored it and gone on with life. Have you looked at it? 

Cameron  12:24

No, but I’m pulling it up now.

Tony  12:26

Copper’s crossed. It’s now a sell. 

Cameron  12:29

Oh, really? Okay. 

Tony  12:32

It’s crossed downwards. Yeah. I saw a comment you made — I think you made it — someone made it on Facebook on the group saying that if copper was the majority of the revenues we take it out. But, I’ve been taking it out if the copper is a substantial part of the revenues, and usually around sort of 30%.

Cameron  12:48

Oh, that’s new. 

Tony  12:50

No, we did that for BHP. We took out BHP when the copper price dropped last time.

Cameron  12:56

Oh. Because it was a big enough component?

Tony  12:59

Yeah. And originally, I think the key one for us that started that discussion was, I’m thinking Aeris Resources, AIS. I could have that wrong, but there was a copper/gold producer and we left it in when the copper price went down, or I think it was the copper. Or the copper was up and the gold was down, one or the other. And people asked the question when is it a material enough percentage of profit and sales before we take it out and we kind of settled on a third. But that was just a bit of a wet finger test, really. 

Cameron  13:29

There’s the title for the episode today, The Wet Finger Test. Okay, so we’ll have to go through the QAV portfolio and our individual portfolios. Everyone, go through your portfolios and check for copper stocks.

Tony  13:44

Yeah, and if you’re doing that, check the copper price first because it has been bouncing and zigzagging across the sell line in the last month or so. So, if you’re checking this a few days in the future — in our future, not your future, but our future — it may be back into a buy position again.

Cameron  14:00

And if you’re checking it a few days into your own future, tell us how you did that.

Tony  14:04

Yeah, and put a big bet on because you’ll know the result.

Cameron  14:07

Yeah. So, some of the stocks that we normally have in our buy list that this will affect are Aeris Resources, AIS, C6C, Copper Mountain, Sandfire Resources, SFR, BHP. Any else come to mind?

Tony  14:25

No, they’re the main ones I would have said. 

Cameron  14:28

Alrighty. Construction giants on the brink, Tony. We talked about major construction company failure the other day, now another one, I see, in the Courier Mail this morning: Condev. “Queensland construction firm hangs in the balance with a billion dollars and 125 jobs on the line.” 

Tony  14:49

Wow. Do you know the reason? 

Cameron  14:52

I do not know the reason, no.

Tony  14:55

It’s a canary in the coal mine, though, when property developers start and builders start going under.

Cameron  15:00

Yeah, we had a QAV club member in the last week or so, I can’t remember who it was-an estimator, I think, said “no, construction’s doing great. No need to worry about it. Everyone’s busy,” everyone’s, you know, got more work than they can bite off/chew, something. But, yeah, apparently not Condev, they’ve got a problem. So, that’s two big ones. Yeah.

Tony  15:25

it is. And there was an interesting write up by Steven Main talking about the fact that, particularly with the large construction companies operating on government contracts, they’re asked to tender for fixed price contracts on very, very small margins. And he was kind of saying that it was inevitable that one day a big one would go under. I mean, they do, I know they do often lay off the risk and take out insurance policies, but it is large sums of money on thin margins and if something goes south they can lose a lot of money.

Cameron  15:55

I’m just pulling up this Courier Mail article. It says “up to a billion dollars’ worth of construction projects in Queensland are hanging in the balance as construction giant Condev calls on developers to throw it a financial lifeline. There are growing fears that Condev which has hundreds of millions of dollars’ worth of projects underway across Southeast Queensland could be the latest major building company to fail, adding to the growing woes in the sector. Condev presented developers with a proposal on Monday afternoon that will reportedly involve helping the company offset a perfect storm of labour shortages, floods and supply chain issues that has seen construction costs surge 25% over the past eighteen months.”

Tony  16:37

And that’s a problem if they’re on fixed price contracts with their developers. So, that’s the issue, right. 

Cameron  16:42

Yeah. And you would think that all of those three things would affect all builders trying to work in Southeast Queensland. So, we’ll see what happens.

Cameron  16:53

And the flow on effect will be if the developers do try and resurrect these projects, they all go up by 25% right. So, then they start to get a squeeze if they’ve pre-sold, say, apartments for example at one price and they’re either facing the project not going ahead, or paying a higher price to a new builder or even the current builder to keep them going. They can’t recover that money in the market, so the problem becomes theirs and developers start going bankrupt, too. So, it has a flow on effect.

Cameron  17:18

Yeah. Difficult times.

Tony  17:22

And you know, your estimate might be true, might be right in that if this is only a short-term thing because of COVID and because of supply chain issues, and it will write itself in the next six months, then it won’t be an ongoing problem. But, that’s the big question in the market, right? Is inflation here or is it transitory? So, it’s going to be a bumpy ride either way for industries which operate on razor thin margins and have exposure, but if enough of those go broke and as flow on effects with people losing deposits on apartments, with subbies going bankrupt, with building workers going bankrupt, it may not be a transitory problem. 

Cameron  18:01

*”It is different. Every time it’s always different, Tony, it’s never the same.”* Thank you, Alan. Let’s talk about the QAV portfolio, Tony. According to Navexa with their funky way of calculating it, soon according to secret emails that we have been privy to thanks to Steven Mabb, they will be introducing a CAGR calculation. So, thank you to all the QAV members who barrage them with emails saying we want CAGR, we want CAGR. Poor Navarre.

Tony  18:36

And they have a cash account now too, which is another big addition for them, which is great. 

Cameron  18:40

Yeah. Explain to people how to use that.

Tony  18:44

I don’t know. I don’t know if it works automatically or not. But, it’s where, like, if you get a dividend or you sell something and don’t buy something, that would just disappear into the thin air as far as Navexa was concerned. Except that they did still, I think, use it in terms of your performance calculations. But yeah, they should. I don’t know if you have to, I don’t know how it works. You have to manually go in and add those to the cash account now or does it happen automatically?

Cameron  19:07

Yeah, to be seen. When I set them up last week, it retrospectively went back through my dividends that we had earned since a certain period of time that I could tell it, and it added up the dividends and added them to it. Whether or not it does it automatically moving forwards, I don’t know. But, you can get instructions from the Navexa guys if you’re using it, but I think you just go into your portfolio, click on “add investments”, select “cash account”, and it just appears there in your list of investments.

Cameron  19:38

Yeah, so what we don’t know is whether it happens automatically or whether we need to do it manually.

Cameron  19:42

Yeah. Looking at the portfolio anyway for this financial year, it says QAV is up 10.63% at the moment versus the SPDR 200 up 2.21%. So, we’re about five times doing better than the 200. Since inception, I looked at it earlier, I think we’re up about 23% since inception, which is beginning of September 2019 versus about 7% for the 200. So, we’re about three times…

Tony  20:16

10, I think.

Cameron  20:18

10 since inception?

Tony  20:20

I looked it up today, I got 23% for the QAV portfolio and 10% for the, whatever it’s called, STW 200.

Cameron  20:28

Really? Okay. I’ll take your word on it. No, I’m not, I’m gonna look at it.

Tony  20:33

I know you would.

Cameron  20:36

Not that I doubt you Tony, because you’re always right, I’m always wrong in these things. Oh, 7.75.

Tony  20:44

Oh, so you’re right. Good thing you checked my homework.

Cameron  20:48

Yeah, see, one of us hasn’t been in holiday mode for the last couple of months. 23.49% for QAV versus 7.75. So, yeah, that’s pretty good. 

Tony  21:01

Yeah. And the other one I looked up too was the last thirty days, which was pretty much flat for QAV; -0.28% versus -1.5% for the STW 200.

Cameron  21:13

What’s not been going well for us in the last thirty days?

Cameron  21:16

Well, I think it has been going well. We’re flat and the markets down 1.5%. I mean, there’s been a whole lot of things going on, particularly today, actually, that’s gonna hurt us-or, if it hasn’t already. But yeah, if I can talk about it for a minute, probably the biggest issue is COVID outbreaks in China, they’re starting to lock down some of their big cities now. So, analysts were already scrambling to mark down the Chinese growth and forecasts for iron ore imports and other resource imports from Australia, and you can see that reflected in today’s share price movements, which is the 15th of March. A lot of stocks are down 4 or 5% at least because of that. And we have resource stocks in our portfolio, so that’s hitting us. A couple of other things which I’ll just discuss now, I suppose. I can bring it up now, I was planning to do it a little bit later but anyway.  Obviously, everyone’s seeing in the bowser now what’s happening with the oil price. Like, I paid 2.25 a litre for diesel when I was driving back from Wagga last week, which is quite high. And I’m starting to hear rumblings of, you know, action by unionists to raise wages. So, I expect if nothing’s done about inflation, if nothing’s done about rising petrol prices, interest rates going up, we’ll start to see some militant action, industrial action as unions try and recoup in wages the sort of money that’s going out the back door when they have to pay for petrol and mortgages and all the rest of it. So, it’s kinda going to be interesting backdrop to the federal election when it happens, because I expect that will be the time when things will be at their most agitated, I guess. And again, I’ve seen this before. And I remember when I was at Coles Myer that, you know, Coles Myer was the biggest employer, private employer of people in Australia with something like 100,000, or near nearly 100,000 people working at various stores. And chatting with the IR manager who used to go into the Industrial Relations Commission almost every day and argue with one union or the other over wage increases, he said that it took him a while to realise it but the mentality of the unions and particularly their members, especially the blue collar ones — and they’re all blue collar for Coles Myer — they think in terms of a slab of VB or a carton of cigarettes, right? So, if you gave them, I don’t know what a slab of VB’s worth these days, 60 bucks a week? If you gave them a $40 offer that would never win. If you gave them a $70 offer that was too much, but $60 a week straightaway their members knew, “okay, that’s a slab of VB. I accept that, that’s good.” And I think it’ll be the same in this next round of militancy; petrol prices are up, mortgage repayments are up. But eventually it will flow through to things which are at them a lot, too, like food and liquor. So, I expect that we’ll say industrial action because of that. Because, like, the housewife — I mean, the mentality is probably different these days, but in you know, twenty years ago when I was working in Coles Myer and talking to these guys — the mentality was the housewife can complain that the groceries are going up, but as soon as beer goes up they go out on strike, right? I don’t think that’s gonna be far behind.

Cameron  24:17

Can they go out and strike these days? Can they be militant? Isn’t everyone locked down with enterprise bargaining agreements? I mean, I don’t have a lot of experience because believe it or not in the podcast industry unions-you know, I’m a member of a union, but I’m also my own employer so I’m always negotiating with myself. And you know, I remember Father, Father McElhanney told me if I negotiate with myself too much, I’ll go blind. But you know, I’m not exactly sure how militant most unions can be these days. My mom, Jan, was the head of her-she was like the union delegate when she worked at Big W for twenty-five years. The feeling that I got was that their hands were tied. There wasn’t a great deal they could do.

Tony  24:59

Yeah, there’s a lot of that going on, but I think you’ll find that the militant unions, particularly in the construction industry will lead the charge and then others will follow. Depends how bad things get, but if things do get bad the membership aren’t going to care what the law is, they’re just going to pull up stumps until they get paid more, right? So, we’ve seen that before with the dock workers strikes in the past and things like that, going back to the good or bad old days of the BLF. They didn’t care what the law was, they just went out on strike. So, that’s going to be how it starts and it’ll probably spread. But it may not get to that stage, it may be temporary. But, it’s starting to bite either way, it’ll be an issue. The other thing putting pressure on the share market at the moment, getting back to the share market, is I’ve read today that the funds that Magellan in Australia have operated have had huge outflows this last month. So, around about now all the fund managers’ report their performance and other pertinent information, and there’s a lot of money coming out of the Magellan funds. I think the figure was something like 7 or $8 billion came out in the last month. So, people withdrew it from their funds which meant that they had to sell — pretty sure that the Magellan funds will be open ended, I’m not 100% sure, but I think they would be — which means they’re selling for redemptions, which means its downward pressure on the share market. The only mitigating factor is that I think the biggest majority of the Magellan investments are overseas in international shares. So, not all of that $8 billion is going to affect this, but, and not everyone who takes the money out of Magellan doesn’t put it back into somewhere else in the Australian share market. But, that much money being sloshed around and causing sells in the market could be having a downward impact on us over the last few weeks as well. And the other interesting article that I read today was that, it was in the Fin, that there’s a record number of IPOs being pulled. So, that’s always a bad sign for the share market, when investment banks just say “no, we’re just sitting on our money for a while. We won’t tap the market for any fundraisings, we’ll just wait for things to clear up.” So, there’s no confidence in the market at the moment. And everyone’s waiting to see-I think the Fed, I think it was last night, they may have raised rates or they’re doing it tonight, so people are watching that pretty seriously to see which way bond yields goes as well. So, there’s a lot going on in the market at the moment, which is the market like certainty and it’s a very uncertain time. So, all those things I think are having an effect on us. 

Cameron  27:11

Not to mention the war. 

Tony  27:13

Not to mention the war. Well, it’s pretty rare that the war gets taken off the front page, but it was because of petrol prices today. So, New Zealand led the charge; they’ve dropped their excise tax on fuel and their road user charges, so people are going to save 50 cents a litre in New Zealand and that raised the question of whether they should do it here. And people may or may not know that about, well, it’s not now, probably only about 20% of the fuel price now is tax, but when it was back to a dollar a litre it was almost half tax. So, something like 44 cents a litre is tax. And the question is, at $2.25 a litre, if you take 40 cents off it’s not making a big difference. So, the question is whether they do that or whether they do something else to mitigate that extra cost on people, like some kind of tax rebate during the budget or whatever. But yeah, it will become a political issue. It’s certainly starting to bite when the politician starts to float the ideas of removing taxes, or lowering taxes. So, watch this space, I guess? 

Cameron  28:17

*”Don’t listen. Don’t mention the war. I mentioned it once but I think I got away with it all right. Now let’s hear no more about it. So, that’s two egg mayonnaise, a prawn Goebbels, a Hermann Goering, and four Colditz salads.”* [John Cleese, Fawlty Towers]

Tony  28:38

One of the classic scenes. “Right, who’s this then? Who’s this then?”

Cameron  28:42

A visual joke for people listening at home. Our stocks of the week, REG and the BPT. I sent an email out, our club email went out today. Regis are an aged care and services provider across Australia with a nine thousand strong workforce. Sort of a small-cap stock, quality score of 57%, QAV score of 0.13 on a Monday. Board earns a large percentage of the stock, which is interesting. The other one, BPT, everyone knows of course. Beach Energy, that was the large-cap stock of the week to have a look at if you’re, if you’re looking for something this week and you want to check out a couple, do your own analysis on them, do your own research. But BPT, obviously oil prices are going gangbusters at the moment. It’s got a quality score, based on the share price of $1.60, quality score of 92% and a QAV score of 0.27. So, that’s the stocks of the week.

Tony  29:43

And a few other moves on the buy list this week which were interesting. So, GMA has become a star stock in Stock Doctor, so that’s improved its score. And GMA has been going really well for people since they retained that Commonwealth Bank contract and RE’s private equity firm from the US bought a stake in them as well. Myer — you’ll love this — Myer had good results and the share price has risen again. So, it’s getting pretty close to a buy, but last I looked hadn’t quite made it yet. But, that’s something people might want to watch out for. On the flip side, Sandfire was a sell. Even though that copper was a buy at the time, Sandfire has been going backwards so that was a sell. And what I wanted to talk about in the pulled pork this week was ASG, Auto Sports Group, which joins the buy list. So, I could do that now if you’d like?

Cameron  30:31

You didn’t see Jim’s request that you do a pulled pork on KRM?

Tony  30:35

I did. And I was going to get to that in the questions, but if Jim can hold fire for a week, I started to do my pulled pork on KRM but noticed that they release new results today. So, I’m going to wait till next week, promise to do it then when we have new numbers in Stock Doctor hopefully. 

Cameron  30:52

Alright. So, who are you doing instead? 

Tony  30:55

ASG. It’s just joined the buy list this week, Auto Sports Group, and as they used to say in the old days when I was growing up listening to the radio; it’s number eight with a bullet. It’s joined the buy list towards the top, so it’s way up there. But it’s a small-cap stock, it’s an ADT of $29,000 per day, so it’s not going to suit everyone but it’s a reasonable size. It’s a car retailer, both new cars and used cars, and because of all the supply chain constraints around new cars in particular, used car prices have been up a lot since COVID. And that’s led to some good numbers when their results came out in the last couple of weeks. Whether that will continue or not, I’m not sure. The other thing which drives this company is that they’re on an acquisition strategy. So, they are a car dealership franchise, and they’re going out and buying up other car dealership franchises. So, this is what in the industry, in the stock market world, is called a roll up. And normally I’m not keen on roll ups, particularly in the long-term. In the short-term they usually do really well because they’re growing, growing by acquisition. But in the long term, what often happens is the high growth that they’ve had by acquiring other companies gives them a high PE, which in turn feeds their ability to acquire other companies because they can raise easily with a high PE. And then when the music stops and there’s no one left to acquire, or there’s a competitor out there also in the market acquiring things, suddenly their growth slows and they’re on a high PE which drops like a stone. So, I’ve seen that movie before. But in this case, I’m a little bit drawn to it because their PE is only seven times, so that kind of high growth hasn’t fed through to their PE yet; may in the future so be wary of it, but at the moment it’s not there. And also, too, oftentimes it takes a number of years for these roll ups to reach maturity and then the share price plummets, so I would view a company like ASG as a potentially good short term investment, but you may not want to hold it for the rest of your life. Anyway, they have dealerships for regular cars that we’d all know; Mazda, Subarus, Kias. They are tending to focus on some of the premium and European brands when they’re acquiring new business, so they now have BMW dealerships, Land Rover, Jag, Mini, etc. The share price that I did this analysis on is $1.90 which was the share price on the weekend, which is also less than then the consensus target. And I might just pause there and point out that I put up a new spreadsheet, QAV master spreadsheet, last week which allowed people to download the date of the consensus target and then it was going to calculate how many days that had transpired since that date was set. But, you know, got some feedback saying that wasn’t working for everyone so I’ve pulled it down again and I’ve asked Brett to have a look at it. He’s probably much better than me at working out why the date function in Excel works differently for different versions of Excel. But hopefully, hopefully have that one fixed up and put back. But at the moment this analysis doesn’t test for how old the target date is. Another good thing about this company is it’s currently yielding 7.3%, so that’s a very high yield. Certainly, higher than the retail mortgage rate that we spoke about last week. So, it gets a point for that. It gets a point for-two points for financial health being strong and steady in Stock Doctor. Price to operating cash flow, our key metric, is only three times-3.2 times. And interestingly enough, price to operating cash flow is three times, PE is a little over seven, so this is one of those stocks which has both low Pr/OpCaf and low PE. So, I haven’t done the research yet but I suspect that might be a good thing, but it’s something I’m going to look into in the future. The price is greater than IV 1 but less than IV 2, which I calculate to be $4.66, and therefore it’s also twice the share price. It’s still less than IV 2 so it gets an extra bonus In our calculations for that. Net equity per share is $2.13, and I’m just going to call out a difference here with the net tangible assets as reported in Stock Doctor, which is basically zero. And I suspect — I haven’t done a deep dive — but I suspect the difference will be the goodwill that dealership groups are paying for new dealers. If I’m right, just to give a quick summary of that, what’s happening. If a car dealership, say the Sydney BMW dealership, is worth a million bucks and Auto Sports Group comes along and makes them an offer of a million bucks, and they say “no, we’re staying, we don’t want to sell,” and they have to buy it for $2 million, then the difference between fair value and what they paid is often classed as goodwill and goes onto the balance sheet as an asset, but not a net tangible asset. So, it’s a tricky, or, I shouldn’t say it’s tricky, there are accounting rules around this. And it’s one of those sorts of funny areas of economics or business accounting whereby I’ve had to pay $2 million, Auto Sports Group had to pay $2 million to acquire this business, you could argue that’s the cost of the business. The business is worth whatever someone is prepared to pay. And yet, if under the accounting rules they add up what the assets are of the Sydney BMW dealership — you know, the planned equipment, any property they hold, the inventory, the fit out, the hoist and the service bay, etc. — and come up with a million bucks and the other million dollars goes in as an intangible asset of goodwill. Now, we’re trying to look at what the company’s worth if we had to break it up and sell it. Typically, my experience would be that if they’d been astute buyers then they’ll get that goodwill back when they sell it, but oftentimes what happens is they’ll get that or more for some of the prized assets, and they’ll get less than that for some of the dogs they’ve managed to acquire over the years. And every portfolio has good and bad assets. So, you know, if the Sydney BMW dealership is the only dealership that is outside of all the other BMW dealerships in Australia that are owned by the same person, that person is probably going to pay up for the Sydney dealership. So, they’ll get their Google back. If, on the other hand, the Kia dealership in Sydney has a goodwill component to it but there are a lot of Kia dealerships in Sydney so you can’t get that recovered, there’ll be a write down. So, the accounting rules are correct here in that there’s net tangible assets and there’s goodwill, but it’s the question of whether you’ll get that goodwill back in a breakup sell situation which is always the difficulty, but it was always possible as well in certain cases. And thinking back to when all this became an issue back in the 80s and 90s, and a classic case was Kellogg’s, who argued that cornflakes wasn’t ever recorded on their books at true value was just on the books as an asset for the cost of the factory and the wheat notes in the barn, waiting to go through and the cost of the cardboard factory and all that kind of stuff. But really, if I had to sell the cornflakes part of the business, they’d get a lot more for it than those assets, and so the difference was goodwill. And so accounting standards change to allow goodwill to be an asset and for good reason in that case, but it always has this sort of, I guess, dilemma between whether you book it as what the equity shows, which includes goodwill, or what the net tangibles show, which doesn’t include goodwill. I use net equity, I still think that’s a reasonable approach but there haven’t been cases where the goodwill gets pumped up, and when the chickens come home to roost there’s a big write down. So, I think the answer lies somewhere in between, and it’s one of the reasons why I don’t just use price to book as a pricing metric. It’s just one of the many things we look at survey your company with. So, even if we get it wrong, it’s going to be a one-point difference to our score, it’s not going to make a huge difference. But I just call it out because I know someone will say “oh, yeah, but net changeable assets is zero, why are you giving it a score?” That’s my reasoning. I’m using net equity per share. Getting back to the scoring, the growth forecast in this company is 18% and the PE is low, so growth over PE is 2.25 which is a good thing. Our benchmark is 1.5, so we get a point for that. Another interesting side, it hasn’t quite crossed the threshold, but it’s very close to the yield being higher than the PE which I’ve found it to be a really good metric for deep value in the past. So, it hasn’t quite crossed that yet, but it’s something to pay attention to if the price drops a bit further. Interestingly, looking at directors’ holdings, Stock Doctor says that two directors own the entire company which can’t be the case, because it’s listed on the stock market, right? So, I did a bit of research into it. It looks like the director zone around 50% from what I can tell, so it certainly scores a one on that metric; the founders own a large shareholding in this company. I think the Stock Doctor numbers are wrong though, so just be careful of that one. It’s a record low PE of the last six halves, so it gets a point there. It’s a new three-point upturns, so it gets a point there, but the net equity hasn’t been consistently increasing so it doesn’t score there. And all up, it’s a score of 17 over a possible number of things we tally which is 15, which looks strange because the quality score is 115%, but that’s because a couple of them are getting twos. And that’s why we get more than 100%. And a QAV score of 0.35, so it came on the buy list this week high up, worth a look, but do your own research.

Cameron  40:18

Thanks, Tony. Regarding the director’s holdings, I actually spoke to Victor at Stock Doctor about that very issue a few weeks ago for another company. And it seems like the way it works is, let’s say you’ve got two directors that are brothers, Barry and Stan. Let’s say Barry and Stan are both directors of a company, and let’s say they hold their shares in a separate company. So, Barry and Stan, let’s say the company’s XYZ, their holdings of the company are in another company — ABC Proprietary Limited. ABC Proprietary Limited holds 50 million shares, and they’re both directors of ABC. Stock Doctor will show that Barry’s got 50 million shares and Stan has 50 million shares.

Tony  41:03

Well, that makes sense, because that’s what’s happened in this case. There’re two brothers, the Pagent brothers, and they both own-well Stock Doctor’s saying half the shareholding in each case, but sounds like together they own half the shareholding which is what I came to when I looked at other parts of Stock Doctor and added up things, so yeah.

Cameron  41:20

So, that’s how they do it. 

Tony  41:22

They should adjust it though, because it comes through on the filter as being 100% shareholding. That’s just wrong.

Cameron  41:27

Yeah, makes no sense. A couple of other things I want to chat about before we get into Q&A. The beta version of the first QAV course is now available for people to beta test for me, if you wouldn’t mind. You can get to it if you haven’t already seen the link on our Facebook group, go to the website and just type in, I think its backslash courses, and just run through it. So, basically, what I’ve tried to do is take the Bible and all of the Getting Started stuff that we talked about and break it down into like three to five-minute exercises or bits of reading with some quizzes at the end. So, you know, we often get feedback from people saying that it’s like drinking from a firehose when they become club members, all this stuff to read and watch and listen to and do. And so, I tried, with the help of Alex and Taylor, come up with a basic plan for people when you get started. Step one step through, like, forty steps, each one should take you three to five minutes to do so you can sit down and spend an hour or you can spend ten minutes. You’ll see where you’re up to, if you come back to it the next day or a week later, you’ll see where you got up to and you can revise, you can keep going. But I’d love for people to beta test it for me, give me some feedback or ways to improve it. Its mostly text based at the moment, there’s a bit of video, there’s a bit of audio, I want to enhance it as we go. But, hopefully for people that are just getting started or for people that have been around for a while and think its good time to do a refresher on the basics, step through it. It’ll probably all up take you a couple of hours to go through the whole thing. Maybe if you’re familiar with it’ll take you less time, half an hour, maybe. But yeah, let me know what you think. Another thing that came up yesterday, one of our QAV club member who’s been around a while called me up and said, “you know what I really need is mentoring. I need QAV coaching sessions, where once a week we can get together for an hour over Zoom or whatever and I can just ask questions. Because,” you know, he said, “I’m just finding that I’m making too many mistakes. I’m not selling what I should sell, I’m buying without checking things. You know,” I think he said “my personality is too much, leads me to jumping the gun,” as does mine, so I get it. So, I’m thinking about doing that. Either one on one coaching sessions if people want or we could do groups, like a weekly group thing where we get together on Zoom and we just set aside an hour where people can ask questions — similar to the Zoom calls that you’ve done. And you know, we can get you involved in them from time to time if you’re available. If not, I think I can take people through the 101 basics. If they have advanced questions we might need to collect them all and get you to come in with your big brain, Tony, but I think I can take care of most of it. Anyway. So, let me know if you’re interested in something like that, drop me a line and put your hand up and we might see what we can put together.

Tony  44:34

Yeah, I mean, I’ve been thinking about doing a Zoom call, but we have a lot of listeners now. So, it might be, I don’t know if that would work with Zoom. But yeah, why don’t you go with what you’re doing and we’ll see if that works in a reasonable size. We can always pass questions on, I guess, and then do another Zoom call or answer them on the show.

Cameron  44:51

Yeah. All right. Well, that’s all for me. You got anything else before we get into the Q&A?

Tony  44:56

No, I’m good. Thank you. 

Cameron  44:58

Alright. Reg is first: “if we need to buy, we do our analysis and download and we buy from the top of the list the stocks that have the highest QAV score having done any other checks, of course, sentiment, ADT, etc. So, we might buy a stock that has been on the buy list for a few weeks. I wondered what the results might be if instead of this approach, we bought stocks that were new on the buy list that week, starting with those with the highest QAV score. Has anyone tried this approach, and is there any comment as to how this pans out?” I went back and I asked Reg to walk me through the logic behind his thinking, and he said “the logic, unresearched and gut feel is that,” which is the opposite to logic, really, Reg, I think gut feel and logic are at opposite ends of the spectrum buddy, but fair enough, “is that maybe when a good stop first hits the buy list, it might be the start of a good run for that stock. Perhaps particularly a commodity stock when the prospects for that commodity look promising; for example, gold at present with all the uncertainty around it. Or, a fundamentally sound stock that has suffered from bad one-off news, drops in price, and then hits the buy list. An example would be WPL. New on the last buy list, but halfway down the order. I think I’d rather buy WPL than TGA at the top with a higher QAV score.” There’s some logic there. What do you think about Reg’s gut feel logic there, Tony?

Tony  46:29

I like it, I’ll do some research on that. I don’t have any experience of just buying things when they’re new versus buying higher up on the list. But bear in mind that the buy list does move with price, so if something is still on the buy list high up, it probably means it’s share price hasn’t moved dramatically up yet. So, there is still time to get in. So, that’s the first comment I’d make. Whereas, if it appears on the buy list and drops, we don’t buy it. So, to that extent, Reg is probably right. But, if something comes on to the buy list and then takes off, we may not be able to buy it because it drops off the buy list quickly or drops down to buy list quickly. But, let me do some work. And just as an aside on that, I spent a bit of quite a bit of time over the last week or so pulling together data. I guess we now have, or I now have nearly three years of buy lists, weekly but lists in the form that we’re using now. So, I’m just playing around with putting that together in some form of database so we can run some analysis, at least on the last three years, to test out something like this. So, I’ve been doing that for some work that Dylan has given me some of his answers for. I just want to run it through and see what it looks like as a paper test using that three years’ worth of data. So, yeah, if I can spend some time knocking the spreadsheets into shape, it’s probably something we can either make available to people or even put on out to tender to Fiver or whatever and get some people in to ramp up the analysis is what I’m trying to say, so we can get these questions answered quicker. Because even though Dylan’s good, it’s just taking a long time to use ten years’ worth of data to go through and do analysis on this. But if we can use the spreadsheets, that might speed things up.

Cameron  48:11

Dylan, for new listeners, is one of our large team of interns that we have spread out across the globe. Like an octopus’ network-legs-thing. No. Anyway. Yes. Intern.

Tony  48:27

A network of suckers. Yeah, so anyway, so it’s probably a good thought there, Reg, and I’ll do some research into it.

Cameron  48:39

Thank you, Reg. Paul asks: “MML, Medusa Mining. On the back of significantly reduced earnings, MML announced the termination of managing director Andrew Teo with no explanation and the appointment of a new MD. Is anyone aware of any media commentary as to the reasons for the termination, and is it perhaps a red flag?”

Tony  49:01

Yeah, well, I don’t think so. The share price has been up strongly since they did that. Look, I’ve just done a bit of a desk top research, so I don’t know in detail. It looks like the MD who left was doing it on an interim basis even though I think they did appoint him permanently, he had been acting in the role for six months prior to that and he had been a director prior to that. So, that is often the case; an MD leaves and they don’t have someone lined up to replace them internally, a director might step down into the role for a while. It does seem like the new MD though, looking at his CV, is quite qualified for the role of being CEO of this kind of exploration and mining company. So, I think the market sees it that way as well.

Cameron  49:44

Well, you would hope so. 

Tony  49:45

Yeah. Well, that’s right. 

Cameron  49:46

You would hope they’re not appointing somebody who’s not qualified, Tony. Do they think they can just go out on the street and just go eenie-meenie-miney-mo? What do you think?

Tony  49:55

I should say, more qualified. I think the director who stepped in doesn’t have as much experience in raising capital in the mining industry, in exploration, in acquisition, etc., etc. as the current one they’ve just appointed. So, the markets marking up because of that.

Cameron  50:10

I don’t know, the share price has come down a bit since yesterday, but I guess this happened last week. Yeah, okay. 

Tony  50:19

Yeah. If you go into Stock Doctor, for people who don’t know and have access to Stock Doctor, and you look at the announcements, you can see how much the share price moved on the announcement and it was up like 4.38% when they announced the new MD.

Cameron  50:32

That’s gotta suck, doesn’t it, if you’re the outgoing guy?

Tony  50:38

You’re costing the company 4%.

Cameron  50:42

You get fired and the share price goes up. That’s gotta, that’s gotta hurt. 

Tony  50:47

Well, I don’t know if he was fired. I mean, it was potentially always a case he was going to be replaced. He may just be the placeholder is the way I look at it. 

Cameron  50:54

Okay, the way that Paul phrased it, it was the termination of him. I did look it up at the time, I think it said his contract was terminated. Is that not different-not the same as being fired?

Tony  51:09

Oh, no. Like I said, we don’t know what the reason is. My take on it, and that’s just a quick take on it, is that he was an interim CEO while they found someone better. They couldn’t find someone better, so they gave him the gig, and then they found someone better, so they’ve probably done a deal. “Sorry, mate. Let’s agree to disagree and off you go.” He may have returned to being a director, I wasn’t able to establish that, but he may have just gone back to being a board member again.

Cameron  51:34

He was just a seat warmer. Alright, hope that helps, Paul. Alex says, “thanks for asking TK on this week’s episode, Cameron.” This is a question about Josephine’s and ‘price change one month’. He says, “I finally got around to doing a comparison, and it seems like there is no correlation between the ‘is it a Josephine’ based on the Brettalator and ‘price change one month’ based on Stock Doctor. Did anyone else look into this and get the same or different results?” Did you have a chance to do any analysis on that, Tony, yourself? No? 

Tony  52:11

No. 

Cameron  52:12

Well, thanks for following that up, Alex, and doing that work yourself. That’s what we want. Want to see people doing their own work and just telling us what they found. It’s good. Good job, Alex. So, no correlation between the way we calculated Josephine and ‘price change one month’ percentage in Stock Doctor. Good to know. I’ll make a note of that, because no doubt someone else will ask that question within the next few months. Kazi asks, “WGX announced capital raising. I understand this will dilute its value. Should this be considered a good, bad or neutral event if entered recently?” 

Tony  52:51

Yeah. So, a couple of things to note, and I don’t know whether WGX, well, what’s driving the share price. So, there’s certainly been dilution, the capital raising was roughly 11% which is reflected in the share price. As we’ve spoken about in the past, oftentimes the market straightaway will discount by the dilution to the share, so it reaches a new share price. But, however, I noticed it was also removed as a Star Stock on the 4th of March, and there was a whole list of reasons for that around worker shortages. This company’s a WA miner, West Australian miner, and they’ve been having trouble getting staff because of the border closures. So, that problem may abate now that the WA border’s open. But there are some short term problems which are also impacting the share price. By the by, I had a look at the capital raising, it’s one of the ones that Steven Main would frown upon because there’s been no retail component. So, poor old Kazi hasn’t been able to take up shares, so he’s been diluted as well, unfortunately. The capital raising looks interesting, looks attractive in terms of the people who took it up, but there’s a little-known rule that the ASX allows companies to issue up to a certain amount of their capital every year without writing a prospective. And, I can’t recall whether it’s up to the company to set that in their Constitution or whether it’s a flat rule that the ASX says. But anyway, in this case, WGX is allowed to raise 15% via placements to institutional investors and professional investors. And that happened pretty much over the weekend from what I can tell. It all got done, all got away. 100 million dollars raised, thank you very much. And then they tell the share market. So, it’s not very transparent, there’s no way for a retail shareholder to participate unless they come out this week and say “we’re doing a follow up.” Usually that happens at the start, but I haven’t seen anything about it yet. So, Kazi might want to write to Steven Main and make him aware of this one and just say this is a bit of a bum deal for retail investors. So, unfortunately, you can’t do much about it, Kazi. The price is down based on the extra shares that have been issued. That may turn out to be a short-term thing though, because the money that’s raised is going into developing the current suite of mines that WGX has in WA. And who knows whether this is hype or not, but the plan is to grow their current production of about 270,000 ounces a year up to 400,000 ounces a year. So, that’s a significant increase. If it comes off, you should see that reflected in the share price and it will go up. So, unfortunately, retail shareholders are along for the ride on this one, and you don’t get to say whether you want to buy shares or not in a capital raising which is not good. But, it may still turn out well for you in the end.

Cameron  55:42

So Kazi’s question is it good, bad, or neutral. Sort of neutral, is that what you’re saying?

Tony  55:49

Short-term bad, I think long-term possibly good.

Cameron  55:51

You know what surprises me, Tony, is I know that WGX’s Westgold Resources. I remember when we started doing this, and you, I remember being amazed that you knew all the companies. I’d say a share code and you’d know what the company was. I was like, “how the hell do you do that?” And you were like, “yeah, I’ve just been doing this a long time.” I’ve been doing it for three years now, and I just go “yeah, I know this company. We’ve talked about these guys before.”

Tony  56:15

Yeah, they’ve been on the buy list, we did a deep dive on them, a pulled pork last year. I had looked today, they’re not a buy anymore, they’re just below. They’re about a QAV of 0.09, and I suspect when the dilution takes place, they may drop even further. I sold my shares, I’m not sure, maybe two or three months ago, so they were a sell for us at some stage.

Cameron  56:39

Alright, another one from Kazi: “after a sell, does Tony immediately spread the money to other stocks in his portfolio given if he has nothing on the buy list that’s suitable or new? Does he wait for a day or week or month? What’s worked well, in his experience?”

Tony  56:55

Yeah, well I don’t like sitting on cash, so my first reaction is to look for the next thing to buy on the buy list. And I’ve spoken about this before, my execution orders to my stockbroker are almost always, probably 99%, are sell this and buy that with the proceeds. So, they just back to back the order. Yeah, that’s 99% of the case. You know, during the COVID cough when we were selling out of things and not buying back into things I did look at topping up, so I’d go around the portfolio — because the portfolio gets out of balance, right? And if, you know, if I start off with an equal weighting in all shares when I buy them but some go up, some go down, I might top up those that have gone down if they’re still on the buy list and if they’re not a Josephine. So, it would only be if I can’t do that that I would sit on cash, which I did for a short time during the COVID cough.

Cameron  57:45

But they have to be on the buy list for you to do that. Yeah.

Tony  57:49

Yeah, so if I can’t find something new to buy but I already own a Commbank or Westgold Resources, and it’s still on the buy list, it’s a buy, and it’s been going sideways when everything else has been going up, I might top it up with that cash. So, buy more of it.

Cameron  58:05

Which I think some people would find counterintuitive, to buy more of something that’s been going sideways.

Tony  58:10

Yeah, but if it’s still on the buy list and it’s a good score, I will happily buy some more.

Cameron  58:14

You’re just assuming it will still regress to the mean, but it’s just taking some time. 

Tony  58:20

Yeah, correct. 

Cameron  58:22

Alright Kazi, hope that helps. Marcus asks, “my personal learning for future buys is to ensure that there’s at least a 10% gap between my buy price and the sell price so I have some room to ride out short-term volatility. I’m interested in Tony’s opinion with this approach.”

Tony  58:41

It’s a really good question, Marcus. I hadn’t thought about it before. But yeah, so if you’re going to buy a stock at $1, and the sell price is 99 cents, it won’t even get to be a rule 1If it drops to 98 cents, we’ll be selling it straight away. So, I can see the logic in what you’re doing, give yourself some breathing room. I haven’t done it, but it might be worth doing some research on. I’ll certainly have a think about it.

Cameron  59:03

Good stuff. Alright, good one, Marcus. Jeremy says “CAA has had a very bad week. Not sure if it’s just low liquidity or related to aluminium prices and the Russian invasion or speculation on its impacts for CAA. Will have to look into this. I do know there was a QAV podcast a few months ago where Tony thought a rising aluminium price was a good thing, but I think there was some debate over that.” This was about whether or not it was selling aluminium products or aluminium, right?

Tony  59:34

Whether they could pass on the price increases, yeah. You can take this with a grain of salt just based on what I’ve looked at and researched. Yeah, to get a good feel for this kind of question, you probably have to go along to a presentation and ask a question of management. But, just my look at it, I think the real driver downwards of the share price was they came out with a forecast in their-and you can see this in their full year results presentation where they said that they forecast pretty much a flat to slightly down forecast for earnings over the next twelve months. So, taking into account all the things which are putting pressure on them like a rising aluminium price, and I know in past results when I’ve looked at them, they’ve said they’ve had effective hedging in place for that. So, whether that’s — they didn’t mention hedging in the latest results – so whether that’s now an issue for them or not, I’m not sure. But it comes down to, in this case, whether they can pass on aluminium price rises, and I suspect they’ve been doing it well so far so they probably can still keep doing it. But the other issues which are affecting them are, of course, one of the biggest areas of operation is the building industry, and we just spoke about two builders that are going broke at the moment. So, if they’re sticking aluminium on the sides of buildings and that’s an area which is hitting a recession, that might affect them. So, I noticed the consensus forecast in Stock Doctor is for a 13% reduction this year on earnings per share. So, I suspect that’s what’s taking the icing off the cake with the share price, and that’s why it’s dropped. Having said that, it’s not unusual for a company to under-promise and over-deliver, so, you know, six to 12 months out from when they have to report against these figures they’d rather report against a low target than a high target. So, they may well upgrade during the year.

Cameron  1:01:17

Share price is down a lot; 20% In the last couple of weeks.

Tony  1:01:21

Yeah. And if you’re forecasting, it’s not going to help *…* that’s going to happen.

Cameron  1:01:26

I hope that helps, Jeremy. Here’s the last question, this one’s from Donna. She says, “hi Cam and Tony. in reviewing this week’s buy list, it raised a question for me around how to evaluate stocks that are relatively recent entrants on the ASX, say within the last six to twelve months. Specifically, ACL, Australian Clinical Labs, joining the ASX mid 2021 according to Stock Doctor, and on this week’s buy list for consideration. It doesn’t have a buy line on the Brettelator and it doesn’t seem possible to draw a buy line. I’m interested in your thoughts on this stock in particular, and also any general guidance on applying QAV methodology to stocks that are newish to the ASX.”

Tony  1:02:06

Yeah, so, good question. The Brettelator’s not calling it a buy, and the problem is it can’t find an H2. There’s H1s in there, but then no H2. So, that’s the main reason. It did cross a sell line, so the Brettelator is calling it a sell, and it hasn’t been able to draw a buy line since then. And that’s going to be the case, even though the sort of general uptrend to this stock is going up, it has been zigzagging back and forwards a bit. And until you can really establish a buy line, you probably shouldn’t buy it, I probably wouldn’t buy it. But I guess the implicit-for the question implied in Donna’s thinking is can we can we trust the results? Or, can we trust six months’ worth of data without being able to go back and look at things like prior PEs and compare to the current one, etc. I have no problem doing that. You can’t score it on every metric in the QAV checklist, but if I think back to Dusk last year, DSK, the candle store that was listed and was a buy for a while and it’s done okay. We did sell it out of the buy list at some stage. So, ACL will probably come on as a buy and I’d rely on the figures. But, I’m also thinking back to the example of Coles when it was demerged from Wesfarmers going back, I think, about eighteen months ago, and I bought some and it did really well. And it was only those first six months’ worth of figures that enabled it to be on the QAV buy list because it came off the buy list after that. That’s the result of, I think, Wesfarmers trying to get the deal away so they sold it on a good price, which can happen as well. Sometimes things get floated on very high prices and they come back to Earth, and sometimes, you know, they’re reasonably priced, and the only time you can really afford to buy into them on a QAV basis is when they first list. So, I have no problems looking at new companies, but you do have to get enough data on the share graph anyway to be able to draw an L1 and L2 and H1 and H2 to be able to get a buy signal.

Cameron  1:03:58

So, I’m looking at the ACL chart. It has, so it looks like it listed at around about $3.57 and it’s been up as high as $6.20 end of last year. Looks like it listed in April, April-May, currently trading at about $4.94. Generally, the charts going up from bottom left to top right, but because we can’t draw an H1 and H2, you’d be like no.

Tony  1:04:33

Yeah, I think so. I mean, like, if Donna’s tempted because it’s generally going up, then sure, but the problem is that you could be buying it at six bucks or five bucks. So, that could be a material impact on your profit for this one. So, I’m going to wait until I get a clear signal to buy. But I have no trouble buying things in the first six months as long as those signals are there.

Cameron  1:04:53

What did we do for DSK last year? Because, I think it was on our buy list and we did buy it, but we had the same problem.

Tony  1:04:59

Yeah. We didn’t buy it, I think, until we had a couple of months under our belt and we could see that there were peaks and troughs that we could draw some buy lines and sell lines through.

Cameron  1:05:08

Okay. Thank you, Tony. Thank you, Donna. I think Donna is coming to the Brisbane dinner tomorrow night with her partner, I think. We’ve got about a dozen people, I think, coming to the Brisbane dinner. No Tony this time, tried to twist his arm. He was like “pfft, Brisbane.”

Tony  1:05:26

I just got back from three months away, so…

Cameron  1:05:30

But, I’m looking forward to it. It’s going to be fun. Always great to catch up with QAV folks. They’re smart, funny people. It’s always a good night out. 

Cameron  1:22:07

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