The Cobra Effect in Investing
“Count the ANDs”
Last week I wrote about Richards Heuer’s “Psychology of Intelligence Analysis”, the book he wrote inside the CIA about why intelligent, well-resourced experts reach wrong conclusions from good information. I’ve kept reading it. Chapter 12, “Biases in Estimating Probabilities”, is worse for the finan
“Don’t Overthink The Form Guide”
I’ve recently been reading a fascinating book called “Psychology of Intelligence Analysis” (1999), written by Richards Heuer, who worked for the CIA for 45 years. He wrote this book initially for internal use at the CIA to provide a methodology for overcoming intelligence biases by using a framework
“No One Ever Went Broke Taking A Profit”
You’ve heard it a hundred times. A stock you own has had a good run, you’re sitting on a fat gain, and someone (your broker, your brother-in-law, the voice in your own head) tells you to take some off the table. Lock it in. Bank the win. Nobody ever went broke taking a profit.
Be Like Water
Chrissy and I celebrated our 18th anniversary last weekend at a two-day Wing Chun seminar. As you do.
You Don’t Get Dealt Blackjack Every Hand
Our new marketing tagline is “Systematic Outperformance.” Tony came up with it last week and I love it. Apparently he’s not just a pretty face. But he also said something else on the podcast this week that’s worth drilling down on.