QAV Weekly Update 2025-12-19

Hi folks,

Here’s my week­ly port­fo­lio and pod­cast update and some thoughts on why it’s impor­tant to have firm rules gov­ern­ing your invest­ing.

As I men­tioned last week, I’m look­ing for some mem­bers to come on the Xmas show while Tony takes a week off to play golf. Tell me about your invest­ing jour­ney pre- and post-QAV. We want to hear your sto­ry! I know a lot of our mem­bers have had stun­ning per­for­mance this year, some­times for the first time in their invest­ing careers. Let’s hear about it! Shoot me an email if you’re inter­est­ed in being a guest.

All the Best,
Cam

QAV MYTH KILLERS

Here’s the uncom­fort­able truth most of the invest­ment indus­try would rather you did­n’t sit with for too long.

Your instincts are ter­ri­ble at pick­ing stocks.

Not because you’re stu­pid. Because you’re human.

And the entire finan­cial media ecosys­tem is built to exploit that.

The Manufactured Drama

The dom­i­nant belief pushed by finan­cial TV, news­pa­pers, pod­casts, bro­kers, influ­encers and “mar­ket experts” is that good invest­ing comes from being informed, stay­ing close to the action, react­ing quick­ly, and trust­ing expe­ri­enced voic­es who “know what’s going on.”

Watch more. Read more. Trade more. React faster.

The sub­text is always urgency. Some­thing is hap­pen­ing. Some­thing is about to hap­pen. Some­thing has just hap­pened and you’re already late.

This isn’t acci­den­tal. These busi­ness­es don’t get paid when you sit still. They get paid when you click, watch, trade, rebal­ance, switch funds, chase themes, pan­ic, and FOMO your way into action.

Ask a sim­ple ques­tion: who pays their bills?

Adver­tis­ers. Fund man­agers. Bro­kers. Trad­ing plat­forms. Asset gath­er­ers.

None of them ben­e­fit when you do noth­ing. None of them ben­e­fit when you stick to a bor­ing process and ignore the noise. None of them ben­e­fit when you qui­et­ly com­pound over decades.

So they man­u­fac­ture dra­ma. They turn mar­kets into a 24-hour real­i­ty show. And they sell you the illu­sion that react­ing emo­tion­al­ly is the same thing as being intel­li­gent.

It isn’t.

Why People Fall For It

Most peo­ple start invest­ing know­ing almost noth­ing. That’s nor­mal. We don’t get taught this stuff prop­er­ly, if at all.

So we assume the loud­est voic­es know what they’re doing. We assume suits, charts, jar­gon and con­fi­dence equal com­pe­tence. We assume “experts” must have our inter­ests at heart because sure­ly they would­n’t be allowed to talk if they did­n’t.

Add fear and greed to the mix and you have a per­fect psy­cho­log­i­cal storm.

Fear of miss­ing out. Fear of look­ing stu­pid. Fear of los­ing every­thing. Greed for easy wins. Greed for sta­tus. Greed for the sto­ry you’ll tell at din­ner.

Influ­encers under­stand this. Media pro­duc­ers under­stand this. Bro­kers under­stand this. They aren’t stu­pid. They know exact­ly which emo­tion­al but­tons to press.

And we press them our­selves.

The Quiet Collapse

Here’s the assump­tion that qui­et­ly col­laps­es the whole sto­ry.

If these peo­ple gen­uine­ly knew how to con­sis­tent­ly beat the mar­ket, they would­n’t need to sell you com­men­tary.

They would­n’t need to pump con­tent. They would­n’t need affil­i­ate links. They would­n’t need con­stant vis­i­bil­i­ty. They would­n’t need your atten­tion at all.

They would be qui­et­ly, pro­fes­sion­al­ly, relent­less­ly com­pound­ing their own cap­i­tal.

That’s what real edge looks like. Silence. Bore­dom. Rep­e­ti­tion.

Instead, what you most­ly see are peo­ple whose income depends on activ­i­ty, not out­comes. On engage­ment, not results. On per­sua­sion, not accu­ra­cy.

That does­n’t mean every­one is lying. It means incen­tives mat­ter. And when incen­tives are mis­aligned, the advice becomes noise, even if it sounds smart.

The Real Damage

The real dam­age isn’t one bad trade.

It’s thou­sands of small emo­tion­al deci­sions stacked on top of each oth­er over decades.

Buy­ing because you’re excit­ed. Sell­ing because you’re scared. Hold­ing because you’re hope­ful. Dump­ing because you’re embar­rassed. Chas­ing because “every­one’s talk­ing about it.” Freez­ing because you don’t want to be wrong.

Each deci­sion feels small. Each one feels jus­ti­fied in the moment. But each one qui­et­ly leaks val­ue from your port­fo­lio.

A one per­cent dif­fer­ence per year does­n’t sound like much. Over thir­ty years, it’s the dif­fer­ence between “com­fort­able” and “why did I both­er.”

Worse, this emo­tion­al churn trains peo­ple to believe invest­ing is impos­si­bly com­plex. That it’s a game for insid­ers. That ordi­nary peo­ple can’t win unless they’re glued to screens or gift­ed some mys­ti­cal intu­ition.

That belief alone has prob­a­bly destroyed more wealth than any bear mar­ket.

The Actual Solution

Emo­tion is the ene­my. Not mar­kets. Not volatil­i­ty. Not uncer­tain­ty.

The moment you remove emo­tion from deci­sion-mak­ing, out­comes improve. Not per­fect­ly. Not mag­i­cal­ly. But mean­ing­ful­ly.

An algo­rithm does­n’t get excit­ed. It does­n’t pan­ic. It does­n’t care about head­lines, hot takes, or vibes. It does the same thing today that it did yes­ter­day, and it will do the same thing tomor­row.

If those rules are ground­ed in evi­dence, log­ic, and long-term test­ing across mul­ti­ple mar­ket cycles, they don’t need to be clever. They need to be con­sis­tent.

No sys­tem wins all the time. Any­one claim­ing oth­er­wise is sell­ing some­thing. A real­is­tic goal is being right more often than you’re wrong and let­ting com­pound­ing do the heavy lift­ing. Even leg­endary investors admit they’re wrong a lot.

The edge isn’t per­fec­tion. It’s dis­ci­pline.

And dis­ci­pline is almost impos­si­ble for humans to main­tain with­out rules.

You don’t need more opin­ions. You don’t need bet­ter intu­ition. You don’t need anoth­er guru.

You need a process that does­n’t care how you feel.

We use one. It’s bor­ing. It’s rule-based. It ignores the noise. It does­n’t need to explain itself on tele­vi­sion.

And it exists for a rea­son.

STOCK ANALYSIS

For edi­tion #201 of my week­ly Light mem­ber email this Mon­day, I did an analy­sis of a retail insti­tu­tion that’s old­er than the Com­mon­wealth of Aus­tralia itself. We’re talk­ing about Myer Hold­ings Lim­it­ed (ASX: MYR) — the depart­ment store chain that’s been help­ing Aussies look sharp, deck out their homes, and buy slight­ly over­priced lug­gage since 1900. Light and Club mem­bers can read it here.

On the full week­ly pod­cast, Tony did a deep dive on cop­per min­er Aeris Resources (ASX: AIS). See the pod­cast link down below if you want to lis­ten to his analy­sis. That episode is also avail­able to free lis­ten­ers.

BUY LIST

Each week, we pro­duce a buy list based on our val­ue invest­ing sys­tem that we share with our QAV Club mem­bers. The intend­ed pri­ma­ry pur­pose of this buy list is for club mem­bers to use as a ref­er­ence for com­par­ing their own buy list. In the­o­ry, all of our buy lists should look pret­ty sim­i­lar each week.

Below is a link to the AU list for this week.

QAV Val­ue Invest­ing Buy Lists 2025-12-15

PORTFOLIOS

We com­pare our per­for­mance to what we think is the most rel­e­vant bench­mark (SPDR 200 in Aus­tralia, S&P500 in the USA), but if you’re new to invest­ing, these com­par­isons might not mean much. Instead, you can com­pare our per­for­mance to the top-per­form­ing Super Funds in Aus­tralia.

AUSTRALIAN

QAV DUMMY

Incep­tion Report: Since incep­tion (Sept 2019) our port­fo­lio is +18% p.a. vs the bench­mark +8% p.a.

Month­ly Report: The AU Dum­my Port­fo­lio was +0.53% p.a. for the last 30 days vs the bench­mark +2.14% p.a.

No trad­ing in that port­fo­lio this week.

QAV LIGHT

Incep­tion Report: Since incep­tion (Feb 2022) our port­fo­lio is +20% p.a. vs the bench­mark +10% p.a.

Month­ly Report: The AU Light Port­fo­lio was +3.5% p.a. for the last 30 days vs the bench­mark +2% p.a.

No trad­ing in those port­fo­lios this week.

Become a QAV Light Member today and start your investing on the right track

If you want to find out what we’re trad­ing in QAV Light each week, sign up to become a mem­ber. You’ll get an email from me every Mon­day let­ting you know what we’re buy­ing and sell­ing in that port­fo­lio. You can choose to copy our trades or not. It’s the eas­i­est way to start your rules-based invest­ing career… and you don’t even need to know the rules. I’ll fol­low the rules for you. It’s a good first step to even­tu­al­ly becom­ing a QAV Club mem­ber and learn­ing how to run the sys­tem by your­self.

AMERICAN

Since incep­tion (Sep 2023), our port­fo­lio is +63% vs the S&P 500 +52%.

Our U.S. port­fo­lio for the last 30 days was +6% vs +2% for the S&P 500.

No trades this week.

THIS WEEK’S EPISODES

QAV AU 850 — Cop­per Fever

Vale – The World’s Largest Iron Ore Pro­duc­er – QAV Amer­i­ca #31

STOCK NEWS AND UPDATES

Gold was back to being a buy on our com­mod­i­ty list this week, and Iron Ore and LNG both became Josephines.

DISCLOSURE

Please review our trad­ing and dis­clo­sure pol­i­cy.

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That’s it for the week!

QAV A GOOD SHAREMARKET!

Got a ques­tion? [email protected]