Transcript QAV 354

Name of Audio: QAV Episode 354

Length of Audio: 56:58

[Intro] Cameron Reil­ly [00:04]: Wel­come back to QAV, Tony Kynas­ton Episode 354 record­ed, Mon­day the 16th of Novem­ber. How are you?

Tony Kynas­ton [00:14]: Very, very good, thank you. As I said before, a lit­tle bit hot it’s a humid day in Syd­ney today.

Cameron Reil­ly [00:20]: Yeah, that’s unusu­al.

Tony Kynas­ton [00:25]: Yeah. It has been a good win­ter, but sum­mer is get­ting very close.

Cameron Reil­ly [00:28]: Doesn’t get humid in Syd­ney a lot though. Does it?

Tony Kynas­ton [00:31]: Not as bad as Bris­bane, but it does. Yeah.

Cameron Reil­ly [00:33]: Yeah. Thought it was more of a dry heat, like in Mel­bourne.

Tony Kynas­ton [00:39]: No, it’s kind of halfway in between,

Cameron Reil­ly [00:40]: Speak­ing of Mel­bourne, depend­ing on what hap­pens with Ade­laide, I believe the bor­ders might be open for all of us by Christ­mas, the pre­miers are say­ing the nation­al cab­i­net say. I’m think­ing we might plan an event in Mel­bourne for maybe mid-Jan­u­ary. What do you think?

Tony Kynas­ton [01:00]: Yeah. Well, even a bit ear­li­er, if you can, we’re going down Cape Schanck, I think around Decem­ber 12 and stay­ing for a month

Cameron Reil­ly [01:11]: I was talk­ing to Brooke at Stock Doc­tor-Lin­coln Indi­ca­tors down there last week and I was talk­ing about doing an event and she said, yeah, good luck find­ing a venue like every­one in Mel­bourne, Christ­mas time is obvi­ous­ly usu­al­ly hard to find venues any­way, which she said, every­one has just come out of hiber­na­tion now and all the venues are booked sol­id, but maybe if we tar­get ear­ly Jan­u­ary, we might be able to find some­thing.

Tony Kynas­ton [01:36]: Yeah, I’ve heard the same thing from friends and rel­a­tives that because of COVID, they’re only tak­ing like a quar­ter of the book­ings they used to have.

Cameron Reil­ly [01:43]: Yeah.

Tony Kynas­ton [01:43]: And they were giv­ing pref­er­ence to peo­ple who had exist­ing book­ings before the shut­down.

Cameron Reil­ly [01:49]: Which is us! We did have an exist­ing book­ing,
Tony Kynas­ton [01:52]: Yeah, we did. You’re right.

Cameron Reil­ly [01:52]: Have to reach out to our mate who owns the seafood place in St Kil­da.

Tony Kynas­ton [01:57]: Yeah.

Cameron Reil­ly [01:57]: Where we were going to have our event, when­ev­er that was July? We just did a great inter­view with Andrew Page, the founder of Straw­man; that’ll be out lat­er this week, a love­ly chap, had a great chat. Look­ing for­ward to using that maybe a lit­tle bit more as we go for­wards?

Tony Kynas­ton [02:21]: Yeah. I will do a deep dive into it too. Now I think I know a bit more about it.

Cameron Reil­ly [02:24]: Yeah, put some of our thoughts up there. But we got a big show today, lots of ques­tions this week, so let’s get into it, but before we get into the ques­tions, I want­ed to talk to you about a cou­ple of things. Hawthorne, it’s in our port­fo­lio, took a beat­ing last week. Have you had a look at what’s going on there?

Tony Kynas­ton [02:52]: Well, not real­ly. I have had a look at it but I think most gold stocks have had a beat­ing in the last because gold price went down and gold is seen as a safe haven in uncer­tain times. And the mar­ket got a rush of blood to its head when they thought there was a vac­cine com­ing and gold price shot down and gold stocks went down. So, my guess is Hawthorne’s been tied up in that right.

Cameron Reil­ly [03:21]: Right. Well, we’re nowhere near a three-point train line for Hawthorne, but it did come back quite a bit in the last week. So, there you go.

Tony Kynas­ton [03:29]: Yeah, it has. This is no way a pre­dic­tion, but my gut says that as soon an out­break hap­pens again and it will for COVID some­where where it isn’t already, maybe it’s in Aus­tralia, maybe it’s in New Zealand, maybe it’s in the U.K or what­ev­er, or the U.S or Mex­i­co. The thoughts are going to turn back to how uncer­tain the future is, so I don’t know. I think gold, I would­n’t write gold off yet.

Cameron Reil­ly [03:59]: Amer­i­ca had over a mil­lion new cas­es of COVID last week, they’re track­ing at 160,000 cas­es a day at the moment. But appar­ent­ly that’s not both­er­ing the mar­kets, every­one is cool, it’s noth­ing, be fine.

Tony Kynas­ton [04:16]: Well, the mar­ket looks nine months in advance, it’s usu­al­ly what it does. And so, it’s say­ing Biden will tight­en things up as far as the spread of COVID and that’s say­ing a vac­cine will help elim­i­nate it, so that’s where the mon­ey is going. But as we know, fore­casts have an aster­isk attached to them, which is may or may not hap­pen. Might not hap­pen the way we fore­cast.

Cameron Reil­ly [04:38]: Yeah. Good luck to Biden to get­ting the red states to wear masks or go on a lock­down. I can’t see that hap­pen­ing.

Tony Kynas­ton [04:46]: And that’s the prob­lem, isn’t it? Unless you have uni­for­mi­ty, there’s no point even some peo­ple lock­ing down.

Cameron Reil­ly [04:56]: Yeah.

Tony Kynas­ton [04:56]: It’s still going to spread.

Cameron Reil­ly [04:56]: Yeah. Any­how, that’s their prob­lem. Speak­ing of our port­fo­lio, Reg­is is very close to its three-point cell line; Reg­is Resources. We have two trench­es of that?

Tony Kynas­ton [05:12]: A dou­ble hold­ing.

Cameron Reil­ly [05:14]: Two hold­ings.

Tony Kynas­ton [05:14]: Yep, dou­ble hold­ing.

Cameron Reil­ly [05:16]: Yeah. I think we’ve got the sell price in at $3 88, It’s cur­rent­ly at $4.09. So just above that, it’s come down quite a bit. We might be get­ting rid of that soon, I think.

Tony Kynas­ton [05:31]: Well, again, who knows it’s in the same boat as Hawthorne. It’s anoth­er gold stock, which has come off.

Cameron Reil­ly [05:36]: Right.

Tony Kynas­ton [05:36]: But I’m not try­ing to defend Reg­is, if it breach­es its three-point trend line we’ll sell and the same with Hawthorne, but have a look at the Reg­is share price graph and you can see it, this is noth­ing unusu­al for the stock to go up and down with these kinds of patents, but in gen­er­al trend that goes up right.

Cameron Reil­ly [05:56]: But we will still sell it if it bridges its three-point trend line because rules is rules.

Tony Kynas­ton [05:59]: Absolute­ly. Yeah, def­i­nite­ly. There’s no point hav­ing rules if we’re going to break them as soon as we feel emo­tion­al about a stock.

Cameron Reil­ly [06:11]: Unless you want to “fudge” some­thing.

Tony Kynas­ton [06:15]: Yeah fudg­ing is allowed I think but it’s going to make sense I think before you fudge.

Cameron Reil­ly [06:22]: Right, you got to make sense before you fudge that’s tiny’s tip of the week.
Tony Kynas­ton [06:29]: Well, what I’m say­ing I guess is that we have rules and I stick by them but the mar­kets are such a diverse place that if you see some­thing which the rule pre­cludes, but you can make a case for bend­ing the rules and I think the fudge makes sense, we don’t want to shoot our­selves in the foot by being robots about this.

Cameron Reil­ly [06:54]: We’ll wait and see what hap­pens with gold stocks.

Tony Kynas­ton [06:57]: Yeah. I think they’re in a bit of a cycli­cal down­turn, but who knows if they keep going low, we’ll sell them, but it’s not unusu­al to see the gold price oscil­late around a bit too, depend­ing on what’s hap­pen­ing in the wider world.

Cameron Reil­ly [07:11]: All right. You want­ed to talk about a few things this week, the ASA con­fer­ence?

Tony Kynas­ton [07:17]: Yea. So, the ASA; Aus­tralian Share­hold­ers Asso­ci­a­tion has a con­fer­ence on at the moment it’s vir­tu­al this year because of COVID and we just want­ed to talk about a guy called Trevor Salt, who is a Demog­ra­ph­er and I used to go along to pre­sen­ta­tions he would make when I was work­ing in cor­po­rate and they were always very enter­tain­ing, but also very good and he basi­cal­ly, every 12 months comes out with a report on the lat­est move­ments and trends with­in soci­ety. And just a cou­ple of things I picked up from that most­ly around COVID, he was say­ing that cities are start­ing to change their designs and will in the future into what he calls a “Fried Egg Sce­nario”, so instead of hav­ing every­one around the hub in the CBD, there’ll be out in the out­er sub­urbs, which will have like a hub-and-spoke arrange­ment.

So, there’ll be like a yoke for a fried egg some­where out in the sub­urbs, maybe Par­ra­mat­ta or in Syd­ney or Men­tone or Mel­bourne or I don’t know Sun­ny­bank and Bris­bane and then it’ll have the oth­er part of the egg sur­round­ing it. And peo­ple won’t leave that Fri­day foot­print to live their lives, they’ll work in it, they’ll have all their needs met by local shops and providers in that area. And in some respects, that’s what urban plan­ners have been try­ing to push for decades, for Huntsville for a long time and maybe it’s now start­ing to come true because of COVID and the work from home move­ment that’s going on. And he also out that peo­ple were chang­ing the way that they lay out their homes because of work from home and he called them “Hobos”, so peo­ple were mak­ing sure they had a zoom room in their house or a Broad­cast Office from their house. And I thought that was inter­est­ing because we cer­tain­ly do and he also point­ed to a trend that’s occurred this year and in terms of region­al cities get­ting growth.

 So, Region­al­iza­tion; peo­ple leav­ing larg­er urban areas, which are COVID invest­ed and then mov­ing out into rur­al areas, but still able to do their same jobs because of improve­ments in tech­nol­o­gy. So that was prob­a­bly the biggest trends, which I found quite inter­est­ing and in the last one that I want­ed to talk about was he said that by 2025, 75% of the work­force will be mil­len­ni­als, which just kind of blew my mind that the gen­er­a­tional shift was hap­pen­ing that quick­ly.

Cameron Reil­ly [09:54]: What!? How does that work?

Tony Kynas­ton [09:57]: Yeah. He did­n’t give us any evi­dence behind it, but that’s what he said.

Cameron Reil­ly [10:01]: So, by 2025, five years from now, 75% of the work­force will be mil­len­ni­als.

Tony Kynas­ton [10:07]: So, the baby boomers are mov­ing into retire­ment and the mil­len­ni­als are tak­ing over.

Cameron Reil­ly [10:13]: Wow! That’s Inter­est­ing. Yeah, that is going to bring a lot of fas­ci­nat­ing trends with it you would imag­ine?

Tony Kynas­ton [10:20]: I agree. And that was the start off point for quite a wide-rang­ing dis­cus­sion about ESG in the work­force and work­ing from home a lot and qual­i­ty of life and over­tak­ing the mon­e­tary rewards for a job. So yeah, a real­ly long list and very inter­est­ing impli­ca­tions from that when it hap­pens, whether it’s 2025 or 2030 or what­ev­er, it’s going to hap­pen. So, it will bring about dra­mat­ic change.

Cameron Reil­ly [10:47]: The fry the egg thing you were talk­ing about, that’s been my life for the last 20 years and yours too, I guess. Right? I real­ly go very far. Week­ends is the only time I ever real­ly leave the house these days. It’s kind of sad and trag­ic, but there you go.

Tony Kynas­ton [11:06]: We’ve always been 10 years ahead of our time.

Cameron Reil­ly [11:10]: Yes, yes.

Tony Kynas­ton [11:11]: Any­way, I just thought that was nice and thanks to the ASA for putting on that pret­ty good con­fer­ence.

Cameron Reil­ly [11:18]: I actu­al­ly saw an ad for it today and went oh good I should have checked that out, I kind of missed it. Let’s talk about the Aure­lia Met­als Cap­i­tal Rais­ing.

Tony Kynas­ton [11:31]: Yeah. So, I dug into this last week when I heard it was going on. So, Aure­lia Met­als one of the stocks I own, but it’s, I think it’s also near dum­my port­fo­lio as well, a gold mine, but also with oth­er ores or that mines in New South Wales. And I decid­ed to expand into the gold min­ing ten­e­ments and I’ve done a deal to pur­chase a near­by mine also with­in new South Wales, but cer­tain­ly near enough so that they can lever­age their cur­rent infra­struc­ture off it. So, they’re count­ing it as a good deal to do this deal that I’ve got to raise mon­ey and they’re doing it via an equi­ty rais­ing and at the time the share price was around 49 cents. It’s now dropped back in the last few days and this is what often hap­pens with these book bills is that the share price is drop­ping back to the cap­i­tal rais­ing price which is, I think around 43 cents is what they’re going to ask for. Yeah. 43 cents for new shares and the share price today for AMI, I think it was about 45 cents and today being the 16th of Novem­ber and it’s 44.5.

So, it’s going to drop down to around what the cap­i­tal rais­ing price is which means that, as investors, we’re not going to get much upside in this par­tic­u­lar cap­i­tal rais­ing it does­n’t always work this way, but I think it’s what’s hap­pen­ing here. And so, it comes down to whether we think we want to put more mon­ey into AMI, there’s pros and cons for these things. So, I’m nev­er a fan of being on the acquir­er side of a trans­ac­tion, I would rather be on the acquiree side or the acquired side of the trans­ac­tion, that’s when you tend to make more mon­ey, but if they do get the syn­er­gies they’re say­ing, and that’s always a big if because again, com­pa­nies his­tor­i­cal­ly tend to over­state the syn­er­gies when they actu­al­ly take over the new com­pa­ny, they often find rea­sons why they can’t gain enough for the syn­er­gies that they said they were going to gain.

But it’s kind of does make sense on paper any­way, that if you have anoth­er gold mine near cur­rent gold mine you will get some syn­er­gies from tak­ing it over. So, it comes down to, whether we think we should invest Aure­lia Met­als. I’ll just have a quick look, it was on the buy­er list I’ll just see if it still is, yeah it still is. So, unless the share price keeps drop­ping and it breach­es its three-point trend line, which it has­n’t yet, then I would prob­a­bly take up and the fact that if I have enough spare cash, I will take up my rights. Nor­mal­ly I do that any­way, because, often­times in these sit­u­a­tions you can buy 50 cents for 43. It’s not going to hap­pen in this one, I don’t think so that kind of knocks out argu­ment out, but it is on the buy­er list. And, if it comes back to 43 cents and the always around that, it’s basi­cal­ly just a top-up, and you’re bank­ing on the fact that the extra gold mine will give syn­er­gies and the com­pa­ny will ben­e­fit from that, but it’s real­ly a line ball.

The down­side for these sit­u­a­tions is if you don’t take up the rights, then your share­hold­ing as a per­cent­age or ratio of com­pa­ny’s over­all mar­ket cap goes down as Steven Hein likes to push that argu­ment. It does­n’t always mean much in a com­pa­ny like Aure­lia Met­als because it has a div­i­dend pay­out but it’s fair­ly small, It’s 2%. So, you will get dilut­ed in terms of div­i­dend pay­ments and you will have if you are inclined to vote on things at the AGM, you’ll have a list of votes. I would feel worse if retail share­hold­ers weren’t able to take out their rights and an insti­tu­tion has got to buy a share that’s vague on the mar­ket, 50 cents for 43, but that’s not hap­pen­ing. So yeah, it comes down to whether you have the spare cash and whether you think a real year is a good bit going for­ward, and it’s only a buy list so I’m prob­a­bly going to take up those rights myself.

Cameron Reil­ly [15:46]: What kind of QAV score does it have at the moment?

Tony Kynas­ton [15:51]: Yeah, let me have a look.

Cameron Reil­ly [15:52]: By the way we don’t have it in our port­fo­lio. I solved that a year ago,

Tony Kynas­ton [15:57]: Okay, thanks. It’s 0.17.

Cameron Reil­ly [16:01]: Right. So, it’s not high at the moment like there is Tel­lus, 30 stocks above it on the buy­er list. So why would you buy more of that and not buy some­thing at the top of the list, both on resources, speak­ing of which is at the top of the buy list.

Tony Kynas­ton [16:19]: Good ques­tion Cam. In the absence of get­ting a ben­e­fit out of pay­ing 43 cents for more shares when they’re list­ed for 50, there’s not a com­pelling argu­ment at the moment. They’re at 44.50 cents and you can buy them for 43, if that holds up or the share price rais­es and it becomes com­pelling because you’re get­ting an extra dis­count, but now you’re mak­ing a lot of sense if we have spare cap­i­tal, maybe we should put it into some­thing high­er up on the list.

Cameron Reil­ly [16:47]: I would­n’t say Hawthorn Resources right now.

Tony Kynas­ton [16:54]: Maybe. Well, it’s in the same boat, right? It’s anoth­er gold min­ing com­pa­ny as well. So, look once it’s kind of wide open, I don’t think I have that in front of me we have until the 3rd of Decem­ber. So, the offer has­n’t actu­al­ly opened yet, it opens on the 20th of Novem­ber, which is Fri­day, and it goes through until the 3rd of Decem­ber. So, I’ll wait until that last few days there and make up my mind about this one.

Cameron Reil­ly [17:23]: Right.

Tony Kynas­ton [17:23]: And a large part of it will be whether I’m get­ting a dis­count to the cur­rent share price. If I take up the offers.

Cameron Reil­ly [17:28]: Yeah. Well, I get the ratio­nale there, but if you’re not get­ting a bar­gain and it’s a way down on the buy list, I don’t real­ly get the point.

Tony Kynas­ton [17:38]: Yeah, no. I can see the sense in that. I agree.

Cameron Reil­ly [17:42]: Well, there you go. I talked you out of a deal tell your mama I saved you.

Tony Kynas­ton [17:48]: But I still might do it.

Cameron Reil­ly [17:50]: Okay. Well, if you do, get back to me and jus­ti­fy your­self.

Tony Kynas­ton [17:54]: All right, thank you. I’ll see you on Straw­man.

Cameron Reil­ly [17:57]: Yes, I will. We’ll bat­tle it out on Straw­man. Updates, you want­ed to give some more updates on the buy list I think this week?

Tony Kynas­ton [18:06]: Yeah, I did a down­load last week and there were quite a few changes. So, I know you put out the jour­nal, but we’ve added a few. So, N.W.H and R.W Hold­ings, it’s called A.K.G, which is Acad­e­mies Aus­tralia, N.H.C New Hope Cor­po­ra­tion, West gold and West gold World­wide, Mac­quar­ie. And it’s been a few inter­est­ing reports, because it’s the third quar­ter and that we have a num­ber of com­pa­nies that report a Sep­tem­ber end dead­line. There’s been a flur­ry of new com­pa­nies com­ing out to report. So, Mac­quar­ie group, we have new num­bers for, and I hold shares in Mac­quar­ie group. And even though it’s dropped down on off the buy­er list because of its share price ris­ing, I’m still going to hold it until it’s a three-point sell and oth­er inter­est­ing ones were Qan­tas which is on an uptrend. And this is one where peo­ple may want to con­sid­er fudg­ing on. I’m not sug­gest­ing they should, but if I have a look at Qan­tas, we have new num­bers. But the thing with Qan­tas is of course, the air­line air­planes haven’t been in a sky so oper­at­ing cash flow is down, but it has, risen from sort of 4.40 a share up to $5 .19 since the results came out and it’s approach­ing its buy tar­get actu­al­ly may have gone through it. Just let me have a good chart.

Tony Kynas­ton [19:39]: It’s been on an uptrend; I’m just call­ing up the five-year graph and I’ve got to rearrange things on my desk­top here. It’s get­ting very close to its buy price, which is going to be around not much hard­er than its cur­rent share price, but unfor­tu­nate­ly, it’s because of its oper­at­ing cash declin­ing it has fall­en off our list. So, I’m not sug­gest­ing we buy it because it’s off the buy­er list, but this is one I think, which is again, I guess a bit like what Andrew was say­ing from Straw­man. I can see a case where if the vac­cine comes out and planes are in the air next year, that we’re going to look back and say $5 a share for Quan­tas was a steal. So, if peo­ple are doing their own research, they might want to have a look at Qan­tas. I’m not buy­ing it. It does­n’t meet my QAV buy list score, but we’ve had it in the past and it’s in an uptrend at the moment and I expect at some stage they’ll have enough planes in the air to jus­ti­fy a rewrit­ing of the shares.

Oth­er ones I men­tioned Sam­phire last week, and I had to look at that today when I was prepar­ing for the pod­cast and today being Mon­day the 16th, I think it’s now a sell again. So, it’s turned back to being a falling knife. We spoke about it, I think in our last episode, but yeah, it’s a share prices turned down again. I think it’s a falling knife, so I’ll be tak­ing it off the buy­er list and just like Supercheap Auto, which we spoke about a cou­ple of weeks ago, it’s also turned down. Sam­phire is close to a sell, Supercheap is a sell in terms of their share prices and that kind of brings me to what I’d like to high­light to peo­ple.

Tony Kynas­ton [21:30]: We can call it stock of the week, if you like, and that’s JB Hi-Fi. So have a look at JB Hi-Fi out there, peo­ple it’s just crept onto the buy list because the share price has come down, and I guess sim­i­lar for Supercheap Auto. Both those retail­ers have had good Omni-chan­nel strate­gies, which means they’ve had inter­net sales and stores open, dur­ing the COVID lock­downs. Some­times in Vic­to­ria, they haven’t been opened, but across Aus­tralia they’ve been open but now that the mar­ket is get­ting excit­ed about a vac­cine their share prices are rewrit­ing down again on the basis that they were inflat­ed because of their inter­net sales. JB Hi-Fi has come onto the buy list because of that and I think it may prove to be a good­bye. It does get onto the bot­tom of the buy list from time to time and then vari­ably, it goes up from there so I’m just high­light­ing it. The QAV score for is only about 0.15 I think all this. So, it’s not going to stay long on the buy list I don’t think, I will just have a look at what that score is.

Cameron Reil­ly [22:36]: Just look­ing at its chart while you do that, it’s five-year chart its share price now is the high­est it’s ever been out­side of where it was in August peaked at the end of August at 50 bucks, it’s down to 46, but that’s like before COVID it was only run­ning at 39 and that was the best it had been in five years. So, its share price is a lot high­er than its his­tor­i­cal highs.

Tony Kynas­ton [23:04]: Yeah. Like I said, I got a good boost because of the inter­net sales increas­ing and hold­ing up dur­ing COVID and the mar­ket was look­ing for retail­ers that fit that pro­file and was sell­ing down retail­ers like Moho [cross-talk­ing 23:17] reverse any­way.

Cameron Reil­ly [23:19]: My ques­tion is with that in mind, and I know that’s a lit­tle bit more indus­try analy­sis than we would nor­mal­ly do but if we’re back out of COVID for a decent stretch, I won­der if it would come back to its sort of nor­mal trad­ing regions?

Tony Kynas­ton [23:40]: It could, I’m just look­ing at the share price, now it is trend­ing down. I grant you that, so you might want to hold off and see whether it trends up in the future before you buy. But just look up the QAV score, it’s 0.10 so if it does go up from here, it’s going to fall off the buy list because of the share price rise and it def­i­nite­ly is a qual­i­ty com­pa­ny, I think we all know JB Hi-Fi. But any­way, I’m not rec­om­mend­ing it, just peo­ple could use it as a start­ing point for their research.

Cameron Reil­ly [24:07]: Okay. Get­ting back to Sand­fire Resources, did­n’t we decid­ed was shred­ding any­way, recent­ly.

Tony Kynas­ton [24:16]: Yeah. I thought we said it might’ve been a falling knife.

Cameron Reil­ly [24:18]: Yes. Well, that.

Tony Kynas­ton [24:19]: And I think in the inter­ven­ing week, it’s turned out to be a falling knife.

Cameron Reil­ly [24:23]: Yeah, okay.

Tony Kynas­ton [24:24]: Yeah.

Cameron Reil­ly [24:24]: Cool. Okay. Any­thing else you want to talk about before we get into   Q&A?

Tony Kynas­ton [24:30]: Nope. That’s it. Thank you.

Cameron Reil­ly [24:32]: Thank You Tony! Well, first ques­tion this week is from Zimon, he asks for your thoughts, he also asked for my thoughts, which I thought was very gen­er­ous of him, but I’ll let you han­dle this one just for a change. I’ll let you run with its Tony so you don’t feel left out. Uni­ty group, U.W.L, what do you know about Uni­ty Group?

Tony Kynas­ton [24:58]: Well, “sweet FA” is my answer. I don’t know much about it at all but if I look at it in terms of the QAV lens, it would­n’t be some­thing I’d be inter­est­ed in, let me just call up its score. The cash flow the last, I think I had looked at it was around 30 times, I’ll just con­firm that.

Cameron Reil­ly [25:19]: Wow.

Tony Kynas­ton [25:19]: Yeah, 30, 35 times. So, I think from mem­o­ry it’s a rel­a­tive­ly new com­pa­ny it’s been going for a cou­ple of years and it’s some kind of Tel­co that’s doing Fiber Net­works and also, I think telecom­mu­ni­ca­tions tow­ers for mobile phones and so it’s prob­a­bly still in its invest­ment phase, which is not nor­mal­ly the type of share I invest in. So, price, the oper­at­ing cash flow is 36 times, which would make me just move on straight away.
I’m look­ing at Stock Doc­tor at the moment and I can see the per­cent­age short­er of the stock has risen from 0 to 6% since about to the end of June, which is also a wor­ry­ing trend. Does­n’t always mean the share price will go down, the shorts can get it wrong, but when they’re rapid­ly increas­ing, there’s a bit of neg­a­tive infor­ma­tion out there about the stock. The three-point trend line though is still a buy­er on the graph and even though we haven’t got much data there and cer­tain­ly oper­at­ing cash flow, even though it’s low is on the increase and so is bal­ance sheet equi­ty ends and the finan­cial health rat­ing and Stock Doc­tor is good. So, there are things which are attrac­tive about it, but that’s not some­thing I would invest in with a price to oper­at­ing cash flow 35 times, I think that’s just too risky.

Cameron Reil­ly [26:44]: Cer­tain­ly, there are more attrac­tive things on the buy list.

Tony Kynas­ton [26:46]: Yeah, that’s right. And this is prob­a­bly one for Straw­man or for Andrew to have a look at because he would do a dif­fer­ent type of analy­sis and try and work out in five years, what it might be worth, but that’s not my skillset. And I do focus on cash, I think cash is king and I like to not over­pay for cash that’s there at the moment. And as busi­ness isn’t throw­ing off a heap of cash just yet, prob­a­bly will in the future. This is typ­i­cal of a tel­co where they invest heav­i­ly at the start, when they become mature busi­ness­es quite quick­ly, then they throw off lots of cash flows. So, we may come back to this in the future.

Cameron Reil­ly [27:23]: Okay. Thanks for the ques­tions Zymon. Chris says “Hi Cam. I’m strug­gling to get sim­i­lar scores to the buy list. Could we run through a cou­ple, for exam­ple, I score accent group at 0.11 ver­sus 0.34 in the buy list” Should have asked Chris to send me his work­sheet so we could look through it but let’s bring that up and have a look. Well, Tony just spent 10 min­utes going through his analy­sis before I real­ized that actu­al­ly the buy list has a 0.11 as well, Chris. So, I don’t know what ver­sion of the buy list you were look­ing at, but cer­tain­ly the most recent ver­sion has it at 0.11. So yeah, maybe you were look­ing at an out­dat­ed ver­sion, although that still would be a big dif­fer­ence in a score. I don’t know what would have hap­pened to change the score that dra­mat­i­cal­ly, but there you go. And if you have any oth­ers where you have a dif­fer­en­tial between your score and Tony’s score, let me know and shoot me a copy of your check­list, which would be good. So, then I can com­pare your work­ings to our work­ings and we can see where the dif­fer­ence lies.

Anoth­er ques­tion from Chris though, he says “Not sure Duke­ton should be on the buy­er list. Rev­enue in 2020 was prof­it from sale of min­ing ten­e­ments, and there is no ongo­ing oper­at­ing cash flow being gen­er­at­ed and Jamie a.k.a Pea­Head agreed”, this is on Face­book he said. “I agree, whole­heart­ed­ly Chris. I was think­ing per­haps for min­ing stocks, we should have a fil­ter for, as a pro­duc­ing asset, oth­er­wise, very spec­u­la­tive a.k.a DKM not real­ly what we’re aim­ing for with a QAV score.” Tony — thoughts.?

Tony Kynas­ton [29:26]: Well, yeah. I can agree with Jamie and with Chris on this, but I don’t do that lev­el of analy­sis. If I see an oper­at­ing cash flow, which is good, I’ll still buy the com­pa­ny and we had sim­i­lar dis­cus­sions around some of the ETFs, which crept onto the list this year and like GEAR and like GGUS and some of the oth­er ones. And it was point­ed out by one of our lis­ten­ers or some of our lis­ten­ers that the oper­at­ing cash flow that was com­ing through there was boost­ed by the fact that they were sell­ing shares dur­ing the COVID cough and that was­n’t a nor­mal oper­at­ing activ­i­ty. But I think in all these kinds of abnor­mal cas­es, you can, if you feel like you can, elim­i­nate them from the list, but with­out doing detailed research on Duke­ton, I would­n’t know whether it’s in the busi­ness of turn­ing over min­ing ten­e­ments, which some min­ers are that they have a large explo­ration slate. And when they find some­thing rather than devel­op it them­selves, they’ll sell it off.

So that could be the busi­ness they’re in, but I take the point that it’s an abnor­mal look­ing at Duke­ton, and now it does have pos­i­tive cash flow for the last two halves. So, either it’s been sell­ing off a num­ber of min­ing ten­e­ments, like I say, they’re in the busi­ness of explo­ration and then flip­ping those ten­e­ments, I’ll have to take Chris and Jamie on their words that I would sus­pect it may have some kind of oper­a­tions going on to have 12 months’ worth of oper­at­ing cash flow com­ing through, but I don’t know, I haven’t done the research. So, I’ve nev­er fil­tered out abnor­mals in the past, whether it’s an ETF, which has sold some shares and there­fore has high­er oper­at­ing cash flow that are half the nor­mal, or whether it’s a min­ing com­pa­ny flip­ping ten­e­ments, or whether it’s any­thing else, an indus­tri­al com­pa­ny sell­ing a fac­to­ry. Well, I guess I’m say­ing is I rely on the man­age­ment of the com­pa­ny to take that cash flow and rede­ploy it bet­ter than if they had sat on the asset and I think that’s legit­i­mate strat­e­gy and point of view to take. So, I’m not dis­agree­ing with what Chris and Jamie are say­ing but I’m not going to change the check­list to fil­ter out. My thoughts are that cash into a com­pa­ny, as long as it’s deployed well, is a good thing.

Cameron Reil­ly [31:53]: Yeah. And you’re not just look­ing at that one-line item when you’re doing an analy­sis, how much cash they have, right? You’re look­ing at.

Tony Kynas­ton [32:00]: Cor­rect.

Cameron Reil­ly [32:01]: What­ev­er it is now, 17 odd met­rics and the rela­tion­ships between those met­rics and if it’s get­ting a good score across the board, then it’s get­ting a good score across the board.

Tony Kynas­ton [32:12]: Yeah. And like, I’ve always said, I invite the lis­ten­ers who don’t like that to fil­ter out for that and let’s com­pare results in a year’s time or two years’ time and see how we go.

Cameron Reil­ly [32:23]: Yeah. So, the bot­tom line though, is that whilst you rec­og­nize the point that they’re mak­ing, it’s not some­thing you wor­ry about too much, cor­rect?

Tony Kynas­ton [32:33]: Yes, or a fault. By the way, their web­site says Duke­ton Min­ing Lim­it­ed is an Aus­tralian Min­er­al Explo­ration Com­pa­ny focused on dis­cov­er­ing nick­el deposits with­in the Duke­ton Green­stone Belt; North of the town of Lav­ing­ton, West­ern Aus­tralia due to min­ing as a port­fo­lio of ten­e­ments per­spec­tive for nick­el and his fam­i­ly focused on max­i­miz­ing share­hold­er returns. But it does­n’t real­ly say if they’re in the busi­ness of dis­cov­er­ing and flip­ping them, but I’m sure peo­ple that have read into it more will be able to tell us,

Tony Kynas­ton [33:04]: Yeah, I would’ve thought they prob­a­bly are and it’s like strike the met­al line and then they’ll keep­ing devel­op­ing, I guess.

Cameron Reil­ly [33:09]: Right, but thanks for high­light­ing that any­way, Chris, let us know your thoughts on Tony’s ratio­nale. Paul White “HI Cam long time lis­ten­er, first time caller, more a state­ment than a ques­tion real­ly, as I under­stand it, Tony’s rate of return of plus minus 80% is net of CGT trans­ac­tion costs, et cetera, Stock Doc­tor, for exam­ple and I assume most oth­ers when track­ing their per­for­mance don’t fac­tor in the CGT and trans­ac­tion costs asso­ci­at­ed with track­ing their star stock rec­om­men­da­tions and rel­a­tive per­for­mance. One could argue the same for bench­mark­ing against the all-odds accu­mu­la­tion index, you have to sell/ trade some­times and when you do CGT will sub­stan­tial­ly reduce your real returns. So, in order to com­pare apples with apples, should­n’t you at least dis­re­gard CGT when cal­cu­lat­ing Tony’s return, Also, not sure of your treat­ment of notion­al CGT in the dum­my port­fo­lio, but it prob­a­bly should mir­ror the method used for cal­cu­lat­ing Tony’s return, Stock Doc­tor’s reg­u­lar chop­ping, and chang­ing of their star stock /borderline star stocks prompt­ed this email. It’s one thing to claim high­er returns, but if any­one actu­al­ly fol­lowed their port­fo­lio rec­om­men­da­tions to the let­ter, it would seem their appar­ent out­per­for­mance would be eat­en up in tax kind regards Paul White”. Well, at least half of that went over my head, Tony. So, what are your thoughts on Paul’s com­ments?

Tony Kynas­ton [34:39]: Yeah, so just a dis­cus­sion on how I cal­cu­late my returns. Paul is actu­al­ly incor­rect, my returns of cir­ca 18% do include tax­es and bro­ker­age and any oth­er costs like account­ing and very small legal fees, but there are some legal fees in there. So, if I was to just do what the all odds does, which is just to con­tin­ue chug­ging along with­out tak­ing into account cap­i­tal gains tax, If I applied that to my port­fo­lio, the num­ber would be much high­er.

Cameron Reil­ly [35:11]: Now. Hold on. I think what he said, as I under­stand it, Tony’s rate of return is net of CGT trans­ac­tion costs. So, he’s assum­ing you’ve already tak­en those out.

Tony Kynas­ton [35:22]: Sor­ry, I read that the oth­er way. No, haven’t tak­en those out, they are still in there. So, I have tracked my over­all port­fo­lio and I think we’ve dis­cussed this before that my over­all port­fo­lio from time to time can be mis­lead­ing in terms of its per­cent­age return, because I will all take mon­ey out to buy a new house or put new mon­ey in as it comes along from bonus­es, et cetera. So, every­thing it’s all inclu­sive, includ­ing tax­es, includ­ing inter­est, includ­ing me tak­ing mon­ey out and putting it in. So, I also track my Self-man­aged Super Fund, which is a por­tion of the over­all port­fo­lio, but a very size­able one of about 30%. And that one is like a lit­tle gold­fish bowl or a ter­rar­i­um, its sealed.

So, noth­ing is going in or out, even though tax­es have been paid and accoun­tants have been paid to audit the Super­fund, et cetera, Stock­bro­kers have been paid each time I trade.

So, the 18% return or there­abouts, I think it’s just a bit high­er than that at the moment for the Super­fund, it is actu­al­ly inclu­sive of all those oth­er charges as well. So, if I did back them out and make them net of those charges, that the returns would be much high­er.

Cameron Reil­ly [36:41]: Okay. I’m con­fused.

Tony Kynas­ton [36:43]: Under­stat­ing my returns when I com­pare it to the all odds and Stock Doc­tor.

Cameron Reil­ly [36:50]: So, it is net. You are tak­ing those things out, the C.G.T, that kind of stuff. Isn’t that what [cross-talk­ing 36:55]. You’re leav­ing them in by haven’t tak­en them out.

Tony Kynas­ton [37:00]: By hav­ing paid them.

Cameron Reil­ly [37:01]: Paid them. Yes

Tony Kynas­ton [37:02]: Yes, yeah.

Cameron Reil­ly [37:04]: That’s what I tak­ing.

Tony Kynas­ton [37:04]: I read that the oth­er way around.

Cameron Reil­ly [37:09]: Let’s get a dic­tio­nary and try and get on the same, let’s do this in Ital­ian, so we’re maybe.

Tony Kynas­ton [37:16]: Let’s, get a few med­i­cines into us and see if it makes more sense.

Cameron Reil­ly [37:19]: Yeah.

Tony Kynas­ton [37:20]: What I’m say­ing is that my returns include hav­ing paid tax.

Cameron Reil­ly [37:25]: Include hav­ing paid, yes.

Tony Kynas­ton [37:25]: And bro­ker­age charges, where­as notion­al returns for things like the all odds, and I guess also for Stock Doc­tor, don’t include those tax­es as being paid.

Cameron Reil­ly [37:38]: Yes, I think that’s, the point Paul is try­ing to move.

Tony Kynas­ton [37:42]: Oh sor­ry, okay. I take it back then, good point.

Cameron Reil­ly [37:42]: That your return would actu­al­ly be much high­er and that maybe, you should­n’t take those things out before you cal­cu­late return. So, it com­pares more accu­rate­ly with the X.A.O.A, et cetera.

Tony Kynas­ton [37:57]: Yeah, look, good point but that’s what the dum­my port­fo­lio is there for. So, we haven’t been tak­ing tax­es out of the dum­my port­fo­lio or bro­ker­age, so we can com­pare it to the all-odds accu­mu­la­tion index as a bench­mark on a like-for-like basis.

Cameron Reil­ly [38:12]: Yeah.

Tony Kynas­ton [38:13]: That’s also why we said before we weren’t going to put frank­ing cred­its in because the all odds does­n’t do that.

Cameron Reil­ly [38:17]: Yeah. Well, that was a con­fus­ing way of get­ting to the same point.

Tony Kynas­ton [38:22]: Yeah, so sor­ry.

Cameron Reil­ly [38:24]: You wor­ry me there because when peo­ple email me and ask me this rate of return, is it net? has he tak­en all these things out? I always say, yeah, he has and I was think­ing, oh no, I’ve left, I have a strike.

Tony Kynas­ton [38:32]: I haven’t tak­en them out of the cal­cu­la­tion. They’re still includ­ed in the cal­cu­la­tion, but I have paid them with the cash in the port­fo­lio.

Cameron Reil­ly [38:40]: Yeah, I get it. Yeah. Is every­one else con­fused or is it just me?

Tony Kynas­ton [38:49]: I think we should use dif­fer­ent ter­mi­nol­o­gy that the num­bers I quote for my own port­fo­lios are inclu­sive of tax­es and charges and the num­bers that we quote on the dum­my port­fo­lio and the all odds are exclu­sive of tax­es and charges.

Cameron Reil­ly [39:03]: Yeah. That’s good. I under­stand that. Yeah. Good, thanks Paul, for point­ing that out and lead­ing to that extreme­ly con­fus­ing con­ver­sa­tion. John, “Hi Cam looks like, how are you?” I’m good. Thanks John. I’m hot. It’s 30 degrees in my stu­dio right now. I wish Tony would talk more so I could turn the air con­di­tion­ing back on and mute my mic.

Tony Kynas­ton [39:31]: Appar­ent­ly, I just con­fused peo­ple more.

Cameron Reil­ly [39:33]: Yeah. That’s okay, as long as I’m cool with, it does­n’t mat­ter. Ques­tion for Tony “In the Bible of QAV we use a five-year chart with month­ly inter­vals. Is this because we are try­ing to estab­lish medi­um/­long-term trends that Tony has found work best? Does a week­ly or dai­ly inter­val over five years give too much fluc­tu­a­tion from the trend? Cheers, John”.

Tony Kynas­ton [39:56]: John. Yes. That’s the bot­tom line.

Cameron Reil­ly [39:59]: You come on, con­fuse us a lit­tle bit here Tony.

Tony Kynas­ton [40:06]: Yeah. I use the five-year month­ly trend because it is much smoother than using either dai­ly or week­ly trends and also five years because it makes it even smoother than using one or two year or three year. So, I found from my expe­ri­ence, I trade a lot less using a five-year month­ly trend and an exam­ple would be some of these gold stocks, which have been trend­ing down­wards could pos­si­bly have been sold out already, but they may bounce back. So yeah, I find that the smoother, the graph, the less I trade, which is a good thing in terms of the share mar­ket, because every trad­ing curse cost.

Cameron Reil­ly [40:44]: Okay, well also from John, he’s talk­ing about Sand­fire, he said, ” Sand­fire are con­fi­dent that they can divert cop­per to oth­er cus­tomers out­side of Chi­na, as men­tioned in response to my query below” I guess we were talk­ing about cop­per last week, he sent them an email and they said, hi, John, this is from Sash Kos­ki head of cor­po­rate affairs. Hi, John, the com­pa­ny has yet to see the report on poten­tial ban on imports of cop­per or into Chi­na mate­ri­al­ized. As advised last week, we’re con­tin­u­ing to oper­ate at full pro­duc­tion with sales of cop­per con­cen­trat­ed, con­tin­u­ing. We main­tain reg­u­lar con­tact with our key cus­tomers, con­cen­trate trad­ing and smelter part­ners, both in Chi­na and oth­er mar­kets and have trad­ed into both over recent years, we are able to increase sales vol­umes to our con­cen­trate cus­tomers in oth­er well-estab­lished and robust Non-Chi­nese mar­kets E.G.P in Europe, Philip­pines as and when required with min­i­mal impact on our busi­ness. More infor­ma­tion will be dis­closed to the mar­ket as it becomes avail­able and if required. So, there you go, and I noticed that we signed, was it the R.C.E.P? This week­end was announced the big, trad­ing what­ev­er you want to call it? The suc­ces­sor T.P.P?

Tony Kynas­ton [42:07]: TPP with­out the U.S yes.

Cameron Reil­ly [42:09]: Chi­na was part of that. That must have been a fun sign­ing cer­e­mo­ny you would think?

Tony Kynas­ton [42:15]: Well, I haven’t done it yet. I think the prime min­is­ter is fly­ing across to Japan to sign next week.

Cameron Reil­ly [42:21]: Oh, is he allowed out of the coun­try? I thought we weren’t allowed out of the coun­try.

Tony Kynas­ton [42:24]: He’s allowed, but he has to quar­an­tine for two weeks on his way back appar­ent­ly.

Cameron Reil­ly [42:28]: Oh, wow. Yeah, good for him in par­lia­ment house.

Tony Kynas­ton [42:32]: He has­n’t said, well he maybe he hasn’t picked it up. Yes. He might want to get away from it all for two weeks.

Cameron Reil­ly [42:39]: [cross-talk­ing 43:39] it’s com­ing up to bush­fire sea­son, that’s his think­ing, I’ll just quar­an­tine in Hawaii for two weeks again, get away and they can’t get angry at me. I’m just quar­an­ti­ning, not on a hol­i­day this time, I’m quar­an­ti­ning.

Tony Kynas­ton [42:55]: Yeah. Sor­ry, if you can’t hear me, I’ve got my mask on. Yeah look, this is real­ly inter­est­ing and good one John for email­ing the com­pa­ny. That’s the first thing to high­light that always ques­tions that some­times come to us can also go to the com­pa­ny and they’ll be all too pleased to pro­vide an answer. So good one on you, John, for that. Yeah, Inter­est­ing Chi­na has a his­to­ry of mak­ing threats and not car­ry­ing through, and that can cause ruc­tions on the share mar­ket. I haven’t heard yet whether they actu­al­ly have car­ried through their threat of not buy­ing Aus­tralian cop­per, so it’s quite pos­si­ble that they won’t and now, as you say that they’re sign­ing up a trade agree­ment with us you would hope that that would stop them from doing it oth­er­wise the trade agree­ment may not be worth the paper it’s writ­ten on as far as we’re con­cerned, but the mar­ket at this stage, I still think that the cop­per mar­ket in Chi­na is going to be sharp and Sand­fire went down and as we said, it’s a falling knife. So as far as the mar­ket goes, they haven’t cot­toned onto the fact that Chi­na may be bluff­ing for its own polit­i­cal rea­sons, they could be poten­tial­ly try­ing to weigh just with the new U.S Pres­i­dent or they could be try­ing to stop us for push­ing for an inde­pen­dent eval­u­a­tion of the Wuhan orig­i­nal out­break. There are all sorts of rea­sons that Chi­na does these things and I’m not par­ty to them, but as far as I know, we still haven’t actu­al­ly seen Chi­na car­ry out the threat of not buy­ing Aus­tralian cop­per.

Cameron Reil­ly [44:30]: Right. Well, that’s cer­tain­ly what [inaudi­ble 44:33].

Tony Kynas­ton [44:34]: Yeah.

Cameron Reil­ly [44:35]: Is indi­cat­ing there. So, yeah. Good on your John, thanks for that. And if any­one else wants to send emails to com­pa­nies and get some inside track for us, that’s great. Let us know. Very inter­est­ing. Next one is from Mark” Hi Cam, could you please dis­cuss R.R.L with Tony? ” Did­n’t we just do that?

Tony Kynas­ton [44:56]: There’s a dif­fer­ent ques­tion­naire which we can go through. So, we did talk about it and it’s get­ting close to itself. But what I think Mark is ask­ing is if you call up with a five-year graph, we bought R.R.L back in about April, I think. And you’d had gone through a sell pri­or to the COVID cough. The sell hap­pened in around about, or I’d say Decem­ber, 2019, and then after the COVID cough became a buy­er again in around April, 2020. So just after the COVID cough, it recov­ered quite quick­ly and what Mark is ask­ing is if he looks at it now, the high­est point on the graph occurs after that, which is July, 2020. And if he uses that and the next high­est point to the right to base his byline on it, it’s still anoth­er by. So again, we have to go back to the sell line fol­lows the buy line. So, the last sell line we had was pri­or to the COVID cough, which after the COVID cough, we had a buy in the buy price buy line fol­lowed the sell line. But since then, it has­n’t been a sale, even though it’s approach­ing your sell again. So, Mark’s right, but I guess I’ll prob­a­bly say, is that the first thing I looked at when I looked at this graph was to see that it was­n’t a cell using its five-year graph. And so that kind of already says to me that the last trans­ac­tion was a buy and you can trace it back and look at when we bought it. So, if you trace the sell lines back and buy lines back, the last trans­ac­tion was a buy and it’s not a sell yet. So, it’s still a buy and your buy list,

Cameron Reil­ly [46:50]: Right. We did buy it Mid-April and then I think again in ear­ly May.

Tony Kynas­ton [46:56]: Okay. But Mark’s right. I think maybe the Bible might say that you look at the high­est point on the graph on the next right. The next high­est point to the right of that and if you do that in this case then Reg­is is not a buy it has­n’t yet turned up enough. But we did do a pod­cast since then, which said that we need to find the last sell line and see if there was a buy line after that.

Cameron Reil­ly [47:21]: Yeah. I’ll have to go check the Bible. I think ide­al­ly, I have added a lit­tle bit more buy line fol­lows the sell line word­ing in there at some point.

Tony Kynas­ton [47:31]: Yeah. I think you have, so maybe Mark can go and check that out, but tech­ni­cal­ly he is right, but if he expands on that he’ll see that it’s not a sale, so it’s a buy.

Cameron Reil­ly [47:40]: Right. Good. Okay. Mark’s got anoth­er one ” HAW is top of Tony’s buy list. The share price has been in fair­ly rapid decline los­ing around a third of its val­ue in the last six months. It’s nowhere near its sell line, so it’s pre­sum­ably a hold ques­tion. Would Tony buy the stock today or wait until the price starts to tick upwards? If so, what is the cri­te­ria for upwards a month or two trends? Thanks, Mark”.

Tony Kynas­ton [48:11]: Yeah. Good ques­tion, if I was being very lit­er­al, I would buy it at this stage, it’s the top thing on our buy list and it’s in a buy sit­u­a­tion, but I think I also said at some stage in the past that what I do is I will wait for a tick­et before I buy, because I mean the share price can go one of two or one of three ways. It can go side­ways up or down at the moment the trend is down, so I’d prob­a­bly hold off and just see if that trend con­tin­ued. Obvi­ous­ly, if it goes long enough, it’ll become a sell, but at the moment it’s a buy­er. So, I’d be wait­ing for an uptick of per­haps a month before I’d be ven­tur­ing into it.

Cameron Reil­ly [48:49]: Right. Okay. So, it’s at the top of the buy list, but you would­n’t buy it.

Tony Kynas­ton [48:58]: I’d cer­tain­ly be watch­ing it and look­ing for it to turn up because, and you can buy it now at 11 and a half cents, the way it’s going now, it might go down to 10 or it might go down to, nine and a half and it’s a bet­ter buy. So, you either dol­lar cost, aver­age or you wait to see if it goes to 12 and I’m quite hap­py miss­ing out in that first half a cent gain, just to sort of try and see some con­fir­ma­tion that the sen­ti­ment that the down­turn is turn­ing up again.

Cameron Reil­ly [49:28]: Right. Okay. Good to know. what do we get next star? Okay, last ques­tion. This is from a lis­ten­er who does­n’t want his name men­tioned because we’ve men­tioned it too many times in recent episodes and he does­n’t want any­one to think he’s just hog­ging the time I let peo­ple try and work out. Maybe that is for them­selves, this per­son, male or female. I don’t want to give it away asks, “I just read Tony’s lat­est jour­nal and reviewed the new down­load. I found a cou­ple of dis­crep­an­cies, maybe a copy and paste error since putting out, this is from your jour­nal. You said the NRW, NWH who you men­tioned ear­li­er in the showed breached its buy line?

Tony Kynas­ton [50:19]: Yeah.

Cameron Reil­ly [50:20]: With a QAV score of 0.15, but lis­ten­er X says that “it’s only 0.07 in the watch list”. So, I’m just bring­ing up the watch list of the buy list and NWH. Well, yes, it is in the watch list with a 0.07.

Tony Kynas­ton [50:49]: Let me just have a look because, so I can explain this, that watch list is out of date. So sor­ry about that. The buy list is the accu­rate one. What hap­pened was I cre­at­ed the buy list then went back and looked for com­pa­nies that have report­ed recent­ly that I had­n’t seen. How do I do this?

Cameron Reil­ly [51:16]: It’s not at the buy­er list either.

Tony Kynas­ton [51:18]: No, it should be in the buy list. Sor­ry. Okay. I’ve stuffed up. it’s in my buy­er list here. I cre­ate that buy list and watch this by man­u­al­ly copy­ing and past­ing so some­thing’s gone wrong there. But I remem­ber now I did add NWH after I went through, do the down­load, cre­at­ed a buy list, then went back into the watch list and I pos­si­bly, it was one of those ones that had a zero and a three-point sen­ti­ment con­firmed. So, I went back and added the man­u­al data and then came back into the buy list and saw it was a QAV of 0.15, but I must’ve missed copy­ing and past­ing that to the watch-list or the buy list, sor­ry.

Cameron Reil­ly [51:57]: Oh, good spot­ting lis­ten­er X. Thank you for point­ing that out. We’ll get that fixed ASAP.

Tony Kynas­ton [52:01]: Yes, thank you.

Cameron Reil­ly [52:06]: Well.

Tony Kynas­ton [52:08]: Are you on your buy list? Okay.

Cameron Reil­ly [52:10]: I think that’s it, man. I think we’re done. We can turn our air con­di­tion­ers back on.

Tony Kynas­ton [52:17]: Oh yeah. I’m sit­ting here sweat­ing

Cameron Reil­ly [52:19]: Me too. Isn’t a good, nice. We should have the video on

Tony Kynas­ton [52:24]: I know you’d take your shirt off again.

Cameron Reil­ly [52:26]: I would. They’d Say I took my shirt off on tick-tock for one of my sons yes­ter­day to make a fun­ny video for him and Oh, geez peo­ple went wild.

Tony Kynas­ton [52:39]: In a good way?

Cameron Reil­ly [52:40]: No.

Tony Kynas­ton [52:41]: They threw their undies at you or some­thing.

Cameron Reil­ly [52:48]: No, a lot of peo­ple try new, stick hot red, hot pok­ers in their eyes. I think Tony is what it was, but that’s all right. Bring on the hate, man. Dad bods are unit­ing. I say dad. Well, he con­vinced me to do it by say­ing dad bods are in right now. I was like real­ly?

Tony Kynas­ton [53:04]: Is that right? Wow.

Cameron Reil­ly [53:05]: Wow. Wish he’d told me that ear­li­er. Thanks. What does he got on for this week mate? Got any hors­es run­ning?

Tony Kynas­ton [53:15]: No, you’ll be hap­py to know. A cou­ple of them are injured. So, they’re out in the pad­dock for a few weeks. So, you don’t have to bet on them.

Cameron Reil­ly [53:22]: I didn’t need to know that. That’s ter­ri­ble.

Tony Kynas­ton [53:25]: Yeah. Noth­ing run­ning for at least two weeks, golf cou­ple of times this week.

Cameron Reil­ly [53:30]: I don’t know how you’re going to fit that in because we’re doing like three inter­views this week.

Tony Kynas­ton [53:35]: I know. I tried to fit around that. Yeah. It’s hard and this last week­end was full of the mas­ters, which was just great to watch.

Cameron Reil­ly [53:43]: I hear tiger woods stuffed up.

Tony Kynas­ton [53:46]: Yeah. he had a 10 on the path three, just like I would have I’m sure if I had a plate at part three, it’s pret­ty hard.

Cameron Reil­ly [53:53]: Real­ly! Wow.

Tony Kynas­ton [53:55]: Lots of water.

Cameron Reil­ly [53:55]: How do you explain that? How does a guy that good do some­thing like that? Like, it seems impos­si­ble to me.

Tony Kynas­ton [54:03]: Well, golf is a tough game because he was com­plain­ing of a sore back, so that could have been part of it. He was out of con­tention, so I don’t think he’s mind was on the job and he just took it through light­ly.

Cameron Reil­ly [54:17]: Right. Well, there you go. Sure, there’s a les­son in that for all of us, but I don’t.

Tony Kynas­ton [54:25]: Three balls in the water and it’s get­ting close to what we call a team cup.

Cameron Reil­ly [54:29]: Three balls in the water. No, but that’s also going to be the title of my auto­bi­og­ra­phy. Three balls in the water, Cameron Reil­ly’s sto­ry. That’s the name of this episode, Three balls in the water.

Tony Kynas­ton [54:46]: Isn’t like Scara­man­ga, who has three nip­ples, the James Bond vil­lain?

Cameron Reil­ly [54:50]: I’ve got three nip­ples.

Tony Kynas­ton [54:51]: I don’t want to say to them, [inaudi­ble 54:54]

Cameron Reil­ly [54:54]: Well, if you look at tick-tock care­ful­ly, you’ll see that. I do. I have a three nev­er sided my grand­fa­ther and one of my uncles. Yeah, we’re a three-nip­ple fam­i­ly.

Tony Kynas­ton [55:05]: Do you have a gold­en gun?

Cameron Reil­ly [55:07]: Not yet, but if QAV goes well, that’s my plan. Three poles in the water. Well, that’s it for this week. Thank you, Tony.

Tony Kynas­ton [55:18]: Thanks Cam. Have a good week.

[Out­ro]