QAV Light Weekly Update #112

Hap­py Tues­day! (The mar­ket was closed yes­ter­day.)

There’s no way out of here
When you come in
You’re in for good
There was no promise made
The part you played
The chance you took

“No Way Out Of Here”, writ­ten by Dave Gilmour (record­ed by Uni­corn for their 1976 album Too Many Crooks, which Gilmour pro­duced), describes the world of a long-term val­ue investor. It’s a long-term strat­e­gy. You’re in for good. Or at least you should be. We just ignore the mar­ket’s cycles and just focus on exe­cut­ing our strat­e­gy — buy­ing shares in com­pa­nies with good records of gen­er­at­ing cash, and only when we can buy them at a dis­count to their intrin­sic val­u­a­tion. Just buy good busi­ness­es when they are cheap. Sell the ones that don’t per­form well and hold the ones that do, and wait for regres­sion to the mean. It’s a very sim­ple idea.

For­tu­nate­ly every­thing seems to be run­ning pret­ty smooth­ly for us at the moment. The mar­ket is still going strong and our port­fo­lios are all sta­ble.

PORTFOLIO UPDATES

As a group, our four Light port­fo­lios had an excel­lent week vs the bench­mark. They are cur­rent­ly track­ing at about 60% of the STW since incep­tion (Feb 2022), where­as last week they were less than 50%.

QAV is a long-term strat­e­gy, and that entails some years where we out­per­form, and some where we under­per­form. Our five-year old QAV port­fo­lio is still doing dou­ble the STW and we expect these to as well.

As it’s the start of the month, let’s take a look at how our indi­vid­ual Light port­fo­lios are per­form­ing.

PORTFOLIO 221

This port­fo­lio closed 18/04/2022, just as the mar­ket crashed due to the Ukraine war. Hor­ri­ble tim­ing. As a result, we were sit­ting on a lot of cash for a long time, look­ing for some­thing to buy. It’s now in the green, up 0.44% pa (last month it was still down ~1.5 % pa) vs SPDR 200 +9%, so it’s still got some catch­ing up to do.

For most of this FY it has been out­per­form­ing the STW.

 The big win­ner this week has been WGX, up near­ly 10%. 

PORTFOLIO 222

This port­fo­lio closed 08/08/2022 and is up ~16% pa (vs SPDR 200 +7%), per­form­ing at bet­ter than dou­ble mar­ket, which is our goal. 

PORTFOLIO 223

This port­fo­lio closed 07/11/2022 and has recov­ered back to a pos­i­tive posi­tion, up 3% pa (vs STW +12%). It spent a lot of the last year hold­ing cash wait­ing for the mar­ket to recov­er.

PORTFOLIO 231

This one closed 20/06/2023 and is cur­rent­ly up ~3.5% (vs SPDR 200 +12%). As you can see in the chart, it took a few big loss­es in Sep – Nov.

The big win­ner for this one in the last week was NZM, up 11%. How­ev­er ATP was down 18% for the week. It’s still up 17% over­all though, and that does­n’t include the 13% div­i­dend it just paid out either (which explains the recent price drop). 

SELLS

BUYS

CURRENT HOLDINGS

** Please remem­ber to review our Buy­ing Guide­lines to under­stand which cap bands you should be look­ing at and oth­er impor­tant con­sid­er­a­tions. 

DISCLOSURE 

In the inter­est of full dis­clo­sure, we would like to advise that, as of the date of this email, the QAV team cur­rent­ly hold these stocks in their per­son­al port­fo­lios:

ADH ALD ANZ BOQ DTL EHE FHE FPR GNC MMS QBE RMS SSM SUL VUK WAM WGX GEM OML

Please note that our per­son­al hold­ings might not include the stocks we rec­om­mend in QAV Light. This is because we already have full port­fo­lios (15–20 stocks) and can only add new stocks if we have to sell some­thing. 
If you’re inter­est­ed in learn­ing more, please review our trad­ing and dis­clo­sure pol­i­cy.

FOR NEW MEMBERS

If you’re new to QAV Light, here’s a quick reminder on how it works. 

1. We send you an email every Mon­day advis­ing which stocks we are adding to our Light port­fo­lio.
2. You can copy our trades, but please remem­ber to review our Trad­ing Guide­lines to under­stand which cap you should be look­ing at and oth­er impor­tant con­sid­er­a­tions. And con­sult a finan­cial plan­ner before mak­ing any deci­sions.
3. We don’t rec­om­mend that you add stocks which are already in our port­fo­lio. Their posi­tion on our buy list might have changed since we rec­om­mend­ed them. Just start with the stocks rec­om­mend­ed after you become a mem­ber.
4. If one of the stocks we add breach­es one of our sell con­di­tions, we will sell it from our port­fo­lio and you’ll get an email advis­ing of the trade. Again, you can copy our trades, but seek finan­cial advice before mak­ing any deci­sions. And please check your Rule #1 price (see Trad­ing Guide­lines).
5. If you come across any QAV ter­mi­nol­o­gy that you don’t under­stand (eg Rule 1, 3PTL, Pos­si­bles, etc), please review our ter­mi­nol­o­gy guide or just email us for clar­i­fi­ca­tion.

That’s it for today! 

If we decide to buy or sell some­thing, we’ll let you know. 

Got a ques­tion? 
[email protected]