The Checklist Walkthrough
Every column in the QAV checklist, explained from scratch — what you’re measuring, where to find the data, how to score it, and why it matters. This is the reference guide you’ll come back to again and again.
The basic process: gather financial data (manually or via Stock Doctor), run the SD filters and export, import the data into your QAV worksheet, then complete the manual columns. Most columns are automated once you have the SD data — but a handful always need manual input.
“Running a checklist can seem like an onerous process for new people, but it’s not as much work as it might seem. Once you have a full portfolio of 15–20 stocks, you’ll probably only need to run a new checklist 3–6 times a year.”
Cameron Reilly, QAV PodcastRecommended listening before you start: episodes 303 and 305.
Jump to a columnCash & Value
Quality
- U – Net Equity
- V – Increasing equity?
- X – Net Equity Per Share
- Y – Price NEPS?
- Z – Price-to-Book
- AA – Price 130% of NEPS?
- AB – EPS
- AC – Future EPS
- AD – GEPS/PE
- AE – GEPS/PE > 1.5?
- AL – Star Stock?
- AM – SD Intrinsic Value
- AN – Price below SD IV?
- AO – Health Trend
- AP – Health Rating
- AQ – Founder?
- AR – Qualified Audit?
Does the share price have positive sentiment? In other words, does the stock have market support — or is the market running away from it?
We believe this is one of the main reasons QAV beats other value-investing systems. Even if a stock looks cheap, we won’t buy it while its price is declining. Remember: never try to catch a falling knife.
To determine sentiment, we use the three-point trend line (3PTL). Bring up a 5‑year monthly chart of the share price.
The Buy Line — When We Don’t Own the Stock
- Find the highest peak (H1) on the chart. A peak is a high point with lower prices either side of it.
- Find the next highest peak to the right (H2), after the last breach of a sell line. Make sure no data points exceed the line between H1 and H2.
- Draw a line through H1 and H2 and extend it to the right edge of the chart (today’s date).
- The stock has positive sentiment if its price is above this line AND also above its sell line.
Tools to help: Tony’s 3PTL Calculator · The Brettalator (Google Sheets only) · 3PTL example gallery · Zoom Call #2 with Tony
The Sell Line — When We Own the Stock
- Find the lowest trough (L1) on the chart. A trough is a low point with higher prices either side.
- Find the next lowest trough to the right (L2).
- Draw a line through L1 and L2 and extend to today.
- If the price drops below this line, sell.
Tony holds a stock until one of these sell triggers fires:
- ABad news — e.g. sudden CEO or CFO resignation (immediate red flag since 2025-03-11), or results that change valuation
- B3PTL breach — price drops below the sell trend line
- CLiquidation need — e.g. to fund a major acquisition
- DCommodity Sell — underlying commodity crosses its sell line (see Col AT)
- ERule #1 (Buffett) — never lose money. If a stock drops 20% below what we paid for it, we sell even if it’s above its sell line (updated from 10% to 20%, 2025-10-28)
- FCorporate governance red flag (added 2025-04-01) — failure of continuous disclosure, late financial reports, or CEO sells stock before bad results. Also called “The Mill Rule”. Only removed when the issue is demonstrably fixed.
The 8% Flat Top / Flat Bottom Rule
When multiple peaks or troughs are within 8% of each other in price (regardless of how far apart in time), use the most recent as your H1 or L1. Keep ignoring earlier points until you find the last one within 8%. This smooths out flat tops and flat bottoms. Covered in Episode 425 at 33:46.
Does the 5‑year monthly chart show a recent upturn since the last financial results? “Recent upturn” means: has it breached the buy line?
If a stock has just started a new upcycle, that’s an extra good entry point. But we don’t penalise a stock for this being a no — it’s a bonus, not a requirement.
A Josephine is a stock that technically has positive sentiment (it’s above both its buy and sell lines), but is in a short-term downward trend — today’s price is lower than the price at the end of the previous month.
It’s technically a buy, but Tony waits for an uptick before entering — defined as any price increase since the close of the previous month. The name is from the phrase “not tonight, Josephine”.
In May 2022 (episode 518), Tony extended this rule: we also won’t buy a commodity stock if the underlying commodity itself is a Josephine.
If a stock is based on selling a commodity (mining, lumber, agriculture, etc.) and that commodity is currently in a 3PTL sell, Tony’s testing shows the company’s stock will follow. Catching this early lets us exit without waiting for the stock itself to cross its sell line.
Draw the 3PTL for the commodity the same way you would for any stock — 5‑year monthly chart. If it’s below its sell line, mark this as a commodity sell.
The difference between cash inflows and outflows for the period — what the business is actually generating in cash. Tony considers this a better measure than earnings because it’s harder to manipulate.
“Cash is fact, profit is opinion.” — Alfred Rappaport
Think of the coffee shop: how much cash does it bring in each year after paying suppliers and running costs? Charlie Munger put it bluntly: “Every time you see the word EBITDA, substitute the word bullshit earnings.”
This figure is used to calculate Cash Per Share (Column L) and the Price/Cash Ratio (Column N).
The total number of fully paid ordinary shares on issue. Used only as an input for calculating Cash Per Share (Column L) and NEPS (Column X).
Note: We use Fully Paid shares, not Fully Diluted shares. This differs from Stock Doctor’s price/cash filter — Tony found the difference is material.
How much net operating cash the business generates for each share you own.
Required to calculate the Price/Cash Ratio in Column N.
The current share price. Used as an input for multiple ratio calculations throughout the checklist.
How long it would take the business’s cash generation to “pay back” the cost of buying into it. This is a measure of risk — the longer it takes, the higher the chance something goes wrong before you’re repaid.
Coffee shop analogy: if you pay $100,000 for a café generating $100,000 in net operating cash per year, you’d pay it off in 1 year. A ratio of 20 means 20 years — much higher risk.
Also used as the divisor in the final QAV Score calculation (Column AX).
The market average price/cash ratio is around 12. We want to pay well below that. The threshold of 7 comes from The Outsiders by William Thorndike — cable magnate Tom Malone used a rule of paying no more than 5× cashflow for acquisitions.
Tony’s number is somewhat arbitrary — the principle is directional. Any stock you score will be ranked against others, so this is a heuristic for quickly eliminating expensive stocks.
The basic dividend yield (not the gross/franked yield). Companies pay out dividends to shareholders twice a year, and a solid, consistent dividend is another indicator of financial health — boards are loath to reduce dividends as it signals weakness.
Tony doesn’t invest primarily for dividend income, but uses yield as an additional value signal and as a way to service any investment debt.
If someone borrowed money (e.g. by mortgaging their home) to invest, this test tells them whether dividends alone would cover the interest cost. Tony has done this in the past — particularly after the GFC when opportunities abounded.
Even if you haven’t mortgaged your home, it’s a useful indicator of relative value.
Similar to the Price/Cash ratio but uses earnings (net profit) rather than cash flow. Earnings are “fluffier” — they can be manipulated in the accounts — but the market pays attention to PE, so we include it as another value indicator.
An observation Tony has made as a value indicator. If a company has no PE or no dividend yield, leave this blank. The dividend yield is downloaded from Stock Doctor as a number, not a percentage — so no conversion is required before comparing to PE.
P, “”)
The lowest PE in recent history suggests the stock is currently undervalued by the market. Here’s the process (updated 2023-05-11):
- Compare the “current” PE and the “last reported” PE. Take the lower of the two as your latest PE.
- Look at the last 6 reported periods in Stock Doctor. If your latest PE is the lowest of the six, score +2. If it’s the highest, score −1. Otherwise, 0.
- If the current PE is N/A (no profit), enter 0 — we deliberately mark down unprofitable companies.
- If there’s only one PE on record (a new listing), leave this as blank.
Total assets minus total liabilities. What would be left over for shareholders if the company sold everything and paid off all debts. Includes intangibles such as goodwill.
Coffee shop analogy: if you pay $100,000 for a café with $110,000 in net assets, you could sell it for parts tomorrow and get your money back. If the assets are only $20,000, you’re taking much more risk.
We want a company growing its equity every year — look back six half-year periods and check that equity increased in each one. This tells us how well management has used its assets to grow the business.
For recently listed companies with only one balance sheet entry in SD, leave this as blank.
A copy of the share price from Column M, included purely for easy reference when calculating Net Equity Per Share in Column X.
How much of the company’s net equity you’re getting for each share you buy. Sometimes called “book value per share”.
If we can buy $1.10 worth of equity for $1.00, that’s a low-risk investment. If we’re only getting $0.20 worth of equity for $1.00, the risk is much higher. This is as close to “buying a dollar for fifty cents” as value investing gets.
What are we paying per dollar of equity? A reference number used in the next column.
Ideally we pay no more than $1.33 for every $1.00 of equity. That’s our safety margin. Any higher, risk increases. This is the same level Warren Buffett has said he’d use to buy back Berkshire Hathaway shares: 1.3× book value.
How well the company is investing its equity. As a shareholder, EPS is your slice of the company’s profit.
We use EPS Before Abnormals. Abnormals are non-recurring items — e.g. major bad debt write-offs, acquisition expenses, or currency movements — that would distort the picture of ongoing performance.
The analyst consensus forecast for EPS in the next reporting period (next 6 months). Used for growth calculations and the second intrinsic value.
If the company is too small to have analyst coverage, leave this blank — and leave Columns AD, AE, AI, AJ, and AK blank too.
Based on Peter Lynch’s PEG ratio. We want earnings to be growing at a rate close to or exceeding the PE. If earnings are growing fast, the effective PE in future years falls — giving us better value than the current PE suggests.
If FEPS (Column AC) is blank, leave this blank also.
We want companies growing faster than what is currently reflected in their PE. A result above 1.5 is a strong signal. A negative result (earnings declining) is penalised. Blank if FEPS is blank.
Stock Doctor’s Star Stock rating is based on a deep analysis of business performance and outlook. A stock can hold up to two stars simultaneously — add the scores. For example, Gold + Purple = 1.5.
If you don’t have Stock Doctor, you can manually replicate the Star Stock rating using Reuters “Key Metrics” — see Episode 104 (16 min) and Episode 424 (52:44). Score these 7 metrics 1 or 0, total as percentage of 7:
- Quick ratio ≥ 1
- Current ratio ≥ 1
- Long-term debt to equity 33%
- Total debt to equity 33%
- Interest coverage above industry average
- ROE ≥ 15%
- EPS 5‑year growth rate: rising
E.g. a 70% score = enter 0.7 in the checklist.
An independent valuation of the stock, used as a cross-check against our own IV calculations. Prefer the Lincoln Valuation (only available for Star Stocks); otherwise use the Consensus Valuation.
If SD has no IV (common for small stocks), leave blank.
If the prior cell (AM) was blank, leave this blank also. If the share price is above the Lincoln IV but below the Consensus IV, it still scores 0 — Tony considers the Lincoln calculation more accurate.
Look at the trend direction of the Financial Health rating over the last two periods. A recovering company (even if currently not in perfect health) is scored higher — it’s going in the right direction. Stable strong health = 1. Declining = −1.
Note: on the SD bar graph, a lower bar = stronger health (the y‑axis is inverted from what you might expect).
This is the current health rating, not the trend. Read what it says in the big circle in SD’s Financial Health box. Strong or Satisfactory both score 1. Anything else scores 0.
Buffett believes companies where the founder remains involved as CEO or board member consistently outperform others. The threshold is a ≥10% shareholding.
This can be tricky when shares are held via a company. E.g. Solomon Lew holds 2.8% of Premier Investments directly, but is Chair of Century Plaza Investments — the largest shareholder. A quick Google search usually clarifies the relationship.
After being caught out by hidden audit qualifications in their financial statements, Tony made this an immediate stop-check. If a company has any kind of modified audit opinion, we don’t buy it — the risk of a subsequent collapse is too high.
There are several types of modified opinion to watch for (from episode 426 with auditor James Oliver):
- Qualified opinion — “except for X, the accounts are fine.” Look for the words “except for”.
- Adverse opinion — the accounts are fundamentally wrong, pervasively.
- Disclaimer of opinion — the auditor couldn’t get enough info to form an opinion.
- Emphasis of Matter — the auditor highlights something critical (e.g. “material uncertainty relating to going concern”). This is also a red flag for us.
More detail: Episode 318 (intro) · Episode 426 (full discussion with James Oliver) · Transcript Ep 356
Tony’s shorthand for estimating intrinsic value — a simplified Discounted Cash Flow that assumes we want the stock to achieve a 19.5% return (his historical average) in the next 12 months.
Example: EPS of $3.00 → IV#1 = $3.00 ÷ 0.195 = $15.38. If the stock is trading below $15.38, it’s generating enough earnings to hit our return target at current prices.
A copy of the share price included for easy reference when comparing against the intrinsic value columns.
If the share price is below our IV#1, the stock is likely to meet our 19.5% target return at the current price.
A second IV using Future EPS and the market hurdle rate — the return a typical investor would expect. We calculate market hurdle rate as: RBA cash rate + 6% risk premium.
Example (as at 2025-02-25): RBA rate = 4.1%, so market hurdle rate = 10.1%. FEPS of $2.00 → IV#2 = $2.00 ÷ 0.101 = $19.80.
Tony has found this closely replicates a full Buffett-style DCF. See QAV #139 for the deep dive. If FEPS is blank, leave this cell blank.
If FEPS is blank, leave this blank also.
An extra point if we think the stock is this deeply undervalued — essentially buying $2 of value for $1. Blank if FEPS is blank.
AU – Sum of Scores: Add up all the scored columns.
AV – Count of scored items: Count all non-blank scoring columns (ignore blanks — don’t penalise a stock for data that doesn’t exist).
AW – Checklist Score:
This gives you a percentage. A good checklist score is above 75%. However, a lower score is acceptable if the final QAV Score is ≥ 0.10.
AX – QAV Score:
This is the number that represents quality per dollar of value. If it’s ≥ 0.10, it’s a buy. If less, pass.
A newer addition to the checklist. A company buying back its own shares reduces the share count, boosting EPS and supporting the share price — often a signal management believes the stock is undervalued.
To score +1, the company must have: (a) a confirmed buyback in progress, and (b) reduced their outstanding share count by ≥5% in the last year.
Rule of thumb: if you’re buying $1,000 parcels, the ADT should be >$5,000. If you’re buying $100,000 parcels, ADT should be >$500,000. Filter out stocks below your personal ADT threshold before running your full checklist.
You’ve run the numbers. Here’s the final process before committing:
- Have negative sentiment (Column H)
- Have a qualified audit (Column AR)
- Are below their second buy line
- Have an underlying commodity that’s a Josephine or a sell (Column AT)
- Have an ADT below your personal requirement
- Have a corporate governance red flag
“I can knock it off in a couple of hours on a Sunday night over two or three Negronis.”
Cameron Reilly on running the checklist