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QAV Checklist Walkthrough

QAV Bible › The QAV Check­list › Walk­through
The Sys­tem · Step 3B

The Checklist Walkthrough

Every col­umn in the QAV check­list, explained from scratch — what you’re mea­sur­ing, where to find the data, how to score it, and why it mat­ters. This is the ref­er­ence guide you’ll come back to again and again.

Which check­list does this refer to? This walk­through uses the CR QAV Check­list v26.1 – Sim­ple Indi­vid­ual Stock Ver­sion. It’s the eas­i­est place to start. Once you’re com­fort­able, you may want to explore the TK or AF ver­sions — but the col­umn log­ic is the same across all ver­sions.

The basic process: gath­er finan­cial data (man­u­al­ly or via Stock Doc­tor), run the SD fil­ters and export, import the data into your QAV work­sheet, then com­plete the man­u­al columns. Most columns are auto­mat­ed once you have the SD data — but a hand­ful always need man­u­al input.

“Run­ning a check­list can seem like an oner­ous process for new peo­ple, but it’s not as much work as it might seem. Once you have a full port­fo­lio of 15–20 stocks, you’ll prob­a­bly only need to run a new check­list 3–6 times a year.”

Cameron Reil­ly, QAV Pod­cast

Rec­om­mend­ed lis­ten­ing before you start: episodes 303 and 305.

Sen­ti­ment Is the mar­ket mov­ing in the right direc­tion?
H
Sen­ti­ment (3PTL)
Man­u­al Yes = +2 No = −1

Does the share price have pos­i­tive sen­ti­ment? In oth­er words, does the stock have mar­ket sup­port — or is the mar­ket run­ning away from it?

We believe this is one of the main rea­sons QAV beats oth­er val­ue-invest­ing sys­tems. Even if a stock looks cheap, we won’t buy it while its price is declin­ing. Remem­ber: nev­er try to catch a falling knife.

To deter­mine sen­ti­ment, we use the three-point trend line (3PTL). Bring up a 5‑year month­ly chart of the share price.

The Buy Line — When We Don’t Own the Stock

  1. Find the high­est peak (H1) on the chart. A peak is a high point with low­er prices either side of it.
  2. Find the next high­est peak to the right (H2), after the last breach of a sell line. Make sure no data points exceed the line between H1 and H2.
  3. Draw a line through H1 and H2 and extend it to the right edge of the chart (today’s date).
  4. The stock has pos­i­tive sen­ti­ment if its price is above this line AND also above its sell line.

Tools to help: Tony’s 3PTL Cal­cu­la­tor · The Bret­ta­la­tor (Google Sheets only) · 3PTL exam­ple gallery · Zoom Call #2 with Tony

The Sell Line — When We Own the Stock

  1. Find the low­est trough (L1) on the chart. A trough is a low point with high­er prices either side.
  2. Find the next low­est trough to the right (L2).
  3. Draw a line through L1 and L2 and extend to today.
  4. If the price drops below this line, sell.

Tony holds a stock until one of these sell trig­gers fires:

  • ABad news — e.g. sud­den CEO or CFO res­ig­na­tion (imme­di­ate red flag since 2025-03-11), or results that change val­u­a­tion
  • B3PTL breach — price drops below the sell trend line
  • CLiq­ui­da­tion need — e.g. to fund a major acqui­si­tion
  • DCom­mod­i­ty Sell — under­ly­ing com­mod­i­ty cross­es its sell line (see Col AT)
  • ERule #1 (Buf­fett) — nev­er lose mon­ey. If a stock drops 20% below what we paid for it, we sell even if it’s above its sell line (updat­ed from 10% to 20%, 2025-10-28)
  • FCor­po­rate gov­er­nance red flag (added 2025-04-01) — fail­ure of con­tin­u­ous dis­clo­sure, late finan­cial reports, or CEO sells stock before bad results. Also called “The Mill Rule”. Only removed when the issue is demon­stra­bly fixed.

The 8% Flat Top / Flat Bottom Rule

When mul­ti­ple peaks or troughs are with­in 8% of each oth­er in price (regard­less of how far apart in time), use the most recent as your H1 or L1. Keep ignor­ing ear­li­er points until you find the last one with­in 8%. This smooths out flat tops and flat bot­toms. Cov­ered in Episode 425 at 33:46.

GO / NO GO deci­sion point. If sen­ti­ment is neg­a­tive, stop. Don’t pro­ceed with the rest of the analy­sis. We will not buy a stock with neg­a­tive sen­ti­ment regard­less of every­thing else — espe­cial­ly dur­ing mar­ket cor­rec­tions. Add it to your watch­list and set a price alert. Be patient.
Ex-div­i­dend adjust­ment. When we hold a stock and it goes ex-div­i­dend, the share price drops by rough­ly the div­i­dend val­ue. Before decid­ing if the sell line has been breached, add back the grossed-up div­i­dend. For­mu­la: grossed-up div­i­dend = div­i­dend ÷ 0.7. Once the div­i­dend is received (in your bank account), stop adding it back.
5‑year month­ly chart in Stock Doc­tor, Yahoo Finance, or any chart­ing ser­vice. See also the QAV 3PTL exam­ple gallery.
I
Is there a recent pos­i­tive upturn?
Man­u­al Yes = +1 No = blank (no penal­ty)

Does the 5‑year month­ly chart show a recent upturn since the last finan­cial results? “Recent upturn” means: has it breached the buy line?

If a stock has just start­ed a new upcy­cle, that’s an extra good entry point. But we don’t penalise a stock for this being a no — it’s a bonus, not a require­ment.

5‑year month­ly chart, same source as Col­umn H.
AS
Is it a Josephine?
Man­u­al

A Josephine is a stock that tech­ni­cal­ly has pos­i­tive sen­ti­ment (it’s above both its buy and sell lines), but is in a short-term down­ward trend — today’s price is low­er than the price at the end of the pre­vi­ous month.

It’s tech­ni­cal­ly a buy, but Tony waits for an uptick before enter­ing — defined as any price increase since the close of the pre­vi­ous month. The name is from the phrase “not tonight, Josephine”.

In May 2022 (episode 518), Tony extend­ed this rule: we also won’t buy a com­mod­i­ty stock if the under­ly­ing com­mod­i­ty itself is a Josephine.

Same 5‑year month­ly chart. Com­pare today’s price to last month-end close.
AT
Is it a Com­mod­i­ty Sell?
Man­u­al

If a stock is based on sell­ing a com­mod­i­ty (min­ing, lum­ber, agri­cul­ture, etc.) and that com­mod­i­ty is cur­rent­ly in a 3PTL sell, Tony’s test­ing shows the com­pa­ny’s stock will fol­low. Catch­ing this ear­ly lets us exit with­out wait­ing for the stock itself to cross its sell line.

Draw the 3PTL for the com­mod­i­ty the same way you would for any stock — 5‑year month­ly chart. If it’s below its sell line, mark this as a com­mod­i­ty sell.

Com­mod­i­ty charts in Stock Doc­tor, or Index Mun­di. Cov­ered in episode 422 (~52 min mark).
Val­ue Are we get­ting this stock at a good price?
J
Net Oper­at­ing Cash Flow
Finan­cial data

The dif­fer­ence between cash inflows and out­flows for the peri­od — what the busi­ness is actu­al­ly gen­er­at­ing in cash. Tony con­sid­ers this a bet­ter mea­sure than earn­ings because it’s hard­er to manip­u­late.

“Cash is fact, prof­it is opin­ion.” — Alfred Rap­pa­port

Think of the cof­fee shop: how much cash does it bring in each year after pay­ing sup­pli­ers and run­ning costs? Char­lie Munger put it blunt­ly: “Every time you see the word EBITDA, sub­sti­tute the word bull­shit earn­ings.”

This fig­ure is used to cal­cu­late Cash Per Share (Col­umn L) and the Price/Cash Ratio (Col­umn N).

Stock Doc­tor → Finan­cial State­ments → State­ment of Cash Flows. Take the most recent fig­ure from the top of the Oper­at­ing Cash Flow row.
K
Shares on Issue
Finan­cial data

The total num­ber of ful­ly paid ordi­nary shares on issue. Used only as an input for cal­cu­lat­ing Cash Per Share (Col­umn L) and NEPS (Col­umn X).

Note: We use Ful­ly Paid shares, not Ful­ly Dilut­ed shares. This dif­fers from Stock Doc­tor’s price/cash fil­ter — Tony found the dif­fer­ence is mate­r­i­al.

Stock Doc­tor → Finan­cial State­ments → Liq­uid­i­ty → Ful­ly Paid Ord. Shares. Alter­na­tive: Yahoo Finance → Sta­tis­tics → Share Sta­tis­tics → Shares Out­stand­ing.
L
Cash Per Share
For­mu­la

How much net oper­at­ing cash the busi­ness gen­er­ates for each share you own.

= Net Oper­at­ing Cash Flow (J) ÷ Shares on Issue (K)

Required to cal­cu­late the Price/Cash Ratio in Col­umn N.

M
Share Price
Finan­cial data

The cur­rent share price. Used as an input for mul­ti­ple ratio cal­cu­la­tions through­out the check­list.

ASX web­site or Stock Doc­tor.
N
Price / Cash Ratio
For­mu­la

How long it would take the busi­ness’s cash gen­er­a­tion to “pay back” the cost of buy­ing into it. This is a mea­sure of risk — the longer it takes, the high­er the chance some­thing goes wrong before you’re repaid.

= Share Price (M) ÷ Cash Per Share (L)

Cof­fee shop anal­o­gy: if you pay $100,000 for a café gen­er­at­ing $100,000 in net oper­at­ing cash per year, you’d pay it off in 1 year. A ratio of 20 means 20 years — much high­er risk.

Also used as the divi­sor in the final QAV Score cal­cu­la­tion (Col­umn AX).

O
Is the Price / Cash Ratio less than 7?
Score Yes = +2 No = 0

The mar­ket aver­age price/cash ratio is around 12. We want to pay well below that. The thresh­old of 7 comes from The Out­siders by William Thorndike — cable mag­nate Tom Mal­one used a rule of pay­ing no more than 5× cash­flow for acqui­si­tions.

Tony’s num­ber is some­what arbi­trary — the prin­ci­ple is direc­tion­al. Any stock you score will be ranked against oth­ers, so this is a heuris­tic for quick­ly elim­i­nat­ing expen­sive stocks.

P
Div­i­dend Yield
Finan­cial data

The basic div­i­dend yield (not the gross/franked yield). Com­pa­nies pay out div­i­dends to share­hold­ers twice a year, and a sol­id, con­sis­tent div­i­dend is anoth­er indi­ca­tor of finan­cial health — boards are loath to reduce div­i­dends as it sig­nals weak­ness.

Tony does­n’t invest pri­mar­i­ly for div­i­dend income, but uses yield as an addi­tion­al val­ue sig­nal and as a way to ser­vice any invest­ment debt.

Stock Doc­tor → 9 Gold­en Rules → Past Finan­cial Per­for­mance. Use the basic yield, not the gross yield.
Q
Is the div­i­dend yield high­er than the mort­gage rate?
Score Yes = +1 No = 0

If some­one bor­rowed mon­ey (e.g. by mort­gag­ing their home) to invest, this test tells them whether div­i­dends alone would cov­er the inter­est cost. Tony has done this in the past — par­tic­u­lar­ly after the GFC when oppor­tu­ni­ties abound­ed.

Even if you haven’t mort­gaged your home, it’s a use­ful indi­ca­tor of rel­a­tive val­ue.

Cur­rent stan­dard vari­able mort­gage rate from any major bank (e.g. ANZ, NAB). Use the reg­u­lar fixed or home loan ref­er­ence rate — not spe­cial intro­duc­to­ry rates.
R
PE Ratio (Price / Earn­ings)
Finan­cial data

Sim­i­lar to the Price/Cash ratio but uses earn­ings (net prof­it) rather than cash flow. Earn­ings are “fluffi­er” — they can be manip­u­lat­ed in the accounts — but the mar­ket pays atten­tion to PE, so we include it as anoth­er val­ue indi­ca­tor.

Stock Doc­tor → sec­tion 5 of the stock home page.
S
Is the PE less than the div­i­dend yield?
For­mu­la Yes = +1 No = blank

An obser­va­tion Tony has made as a val­ue indi­ca­tor. If a com­pa­ny has no PE or no div­i­dend yield, leave this blank. The div­i­dend yield is down­loaded from Stock Doc­tor as a num­ber, not a per­cent­age — so no con­ver­sion is required before com­par­ing to PE.

= IFS(P=0,””, R=0,””, R

P, “”)

T
Is it the low­est PE in the last 3 years?
Score Low­est = +2 Nei­ther = 0 High­est = −1

The low­est PE in recent his­to­ry sug­gests the stock is cur­rent­ly under­val­ued by the mar­ket. Here’s the process (updat­ed 2023-05-11):

  • Com­pare the “cur­rent” PE and the “last report­ed” PE. Take the low­er of the two as your lat­est PE.
  • Look at the last 6 report­ed peri­ods in Stock Doc­tor. If your lat­est PE is the low­est of the six, score +2. If it’s the high­est, score −1. Oth­er­wise, 0.
  • If the cur­rent PE is N/A (no prof­it), enter 0 — we delib­er­ate­ly mark down unprof­itable com­pa­nies.
  • If there’s only one PE on record (a new list­ing), leave this as blank.
Stock Doc­tor → home page, sec­tion 5. Look at the last 6 half-year peri­ods.
Qual­i­ty Is this a well-run, finan­cial­ly sound busi­ness?
U
Net Equi­ty
Finan­cial data

Total assets minus total lia­bil­i­ties. What would be left over for share­hold­ers if the com­pa­ny sold every­thing and paid off all debts. Includes intan­gi­bles such as good­will.

Cof­fee shop anal­o­gy: if you pay $100,000 for a café with $110,000 in net assets, you could sell it for parts tomor­row and get your mon­ey back. If the assets are only $20,000, you’re tak­ing much more risk.

Stock Doc­tor → Finan­cial State­ments → State­ment of Finan­cial Posi­tion → Equi­ty row.
V
Does it have con­sis­tent­ly increas­ing equi­ty?
Score Yes = +1 No = 0

We want a com­pa­ny grow­ing its equi­ty every year — look back six half-year peri­ods and check that equi­ty increased in each one. This tells us how well man­age­ment has used its assets to grow the busi­ness.

For recent­ly list­ed com­pa­nies with only one bal­ance sheet entry in SD, leave this as blank.

Stock Doc­tor → Finan­cial State­ments → State­ment of Finan­cial Posi­tion → Equi­ty row (check 6 pri­or peri­ods).
W
Share Price (ref­er­ence copy)
Ref­er­ence only

A copy of the share price from Col­umn M, includ­ed pure­ly for easy ref­er­ence when cal­cu­lat­ing Net Equi­ty Per Share in Col­umn X.

X
Net Equi­ty Per Share (NEPS / Book Val­ue)
For­mu­la

How much of the com­pa­ny’s net equi­ty you’re get­ting for each share you buy. Some­times called “book val­ue per share”.

= Net Equi­ty (U) ÷ Shares on Issue (K)
Impor­tant: We do NOT use NTA (Net Tan­gi­ble Assets) per share. We delib­er­ate­ly include intan­gi­ble assets like good­will in our book val­ue.
Y
Is the share price less than NEPS?
Score Yes = +1 No = blank

If we can buy $1.10 worth of equi­ty for $1.00, that’s a low-risk invest­ment. If we’re only get­ting $0.20 worth of equi­ty for $1.00, the risk is much high­er. This is as close to “buy­ing a dol­lar for fifty cents” as val­ue invest­ing gets.

Z
Price-to-Book Ratio
For­mu­la

What are we pay­ing per dol­lar of equi­ty? A ref­er­ence num­ber used in the next col­umn.

= Share Price (M) ÷ NEPS (X)
AA
Is the share price less than 30% above NEPS?
Score Yes = +1 No = 0

Ide­al­ly we pay no more than $1.33 for every $1.00 of equi­ty. That’s our safe­ty mar­gin. Any high­er, risk increas­es. This is the same lev­el War­ren Buf­fett has said he’d use to buy back Berk­shire Hath­away shares: 1.3× book val­ue.

AB
Earn­ings Per Share (EPS)
Finan­cial data

How well the com­pa­ny is invest­ing its equi­ty. As a share­hold­er, EPS is your slice of the com­pa­ny’s prof­it.

We use EPS Before Abnor­mals. Abnor­mals are non-recur­ring items — e.g. major bad debt write-offs, acqui­si­tion expens­es, or cur­ren­cy move­ments — that would dis­tort the pic­ture of ongo­ing per­for­mance.

Stock Doc­tor → Finan­cial State­ments → Finan­cial Met­rics → Prof­itabil­i­ty → EPS Before Abnor­mals (cur­rent peri­od).
AC
Future EPS (FEPS)
Finan­cial data

The ana­lyst con­sen­sus fore­cast for EPS in the next report­ing peri­od (next 6 months). Used for growth cal­cu­la­tions and the sec­ond intrin­sic val­ue.

If the com­pa­ny is too small to have ana­lyst cov­er­age, leave this blank — and leave Columns AD, AE, AI, AJ, and AK blank too.

Stock Doc­tor → same page as EPS. Take the next peri­od after the cur­rent report­ing peri­od.
AD
Growth of EPS / PE (GEPS)
For­mu­la

Based on Peter Lynch’s PEG ratio. We want earn­ings to be grow­ing at a rate close to or exceed­ing the PE. If earn­ings are grow­ing fast, the effec­tive PE in future years falls — giv­ing us bet­ter val­ue than the cur­rent PE sug­gests.

= ((Future EPS − Cur­rent EPS) ÷ Cur­rent EPS) ÷ PE

If FEPS (Col­umn AC) is blank, leave this blank also.

AE
Is GEPS/PE high­er than 1.5?
Score >1.5 = +2 0–1.5 = 0 Neg­a­tive = −1

We want com­pa­nies grow­ing faster than what is cur­rent­ly reflect­ed in their PE. A result above 1.5 is a strong sig­nal. A neg­a­tive result (earn­ings declin­ing) is penalised. Blank if FEPS is blank.

AL
Is it a Star Stock on Stock Doc­tor?
Score Gold Growth Star = +1 Green Bor­der­line = +0.5 Pur­ple Income Star = +0.5 No star = 0

Stock Doc­tor’s Star Stock rat­ing is based on a deep analy­sis of busi­ness per­for­mance and out­look. A stock can hold up to two stars simul­ta­ne­ous­ly — add the scores. For exam­ple, Gold + Pur­ple = 1.5.

If you don’t have Stock Doc­tor, you can man­u­al­ly repli­cate the Star Stock rat­ing using Reuters “Key Met­rics” — see Episode 104 (16 min) and Episode 424 (52:44). Score these 7 met­rics 1 or 0, total as per­cent­age of 7:

  • Quick ratio ≥ 1
  • Cur­rent ratio ≥ 1
  • Long-term debt to equi­ty 33%
  • Total debt to equi­ty 33%
  • Inter­est cov­er­age above indus­try aver­age
  • ROE ≥ 15%
  • EPS 5‑year growth rate: ris­ing

E.g. a 70% score = enter 0.7 in the check­list.

Stock Doc­tor → star sym­bol beside the stock name. Gold = Growth Star, Green = Bor­der­line Star, Pur­ple = Income Star.
AM
Stock Doc­tor Intrin­sic Val­ue
Finan­cial data

An inde­pen­dent val­u­a­tion of the stock, used as a cross-check against our own IV cal­cu­la­tions. Pre­fer the Lin­coln Val­u­a­tion (only avail­able for Star Stocks); oth­er­wise use the Con­sen­sus Val­u­a­tion.

If SD has no IV (com­mon for small stocks), leave blank.

Stock Doc­tor → home page → sec­tion 5 “Share Price Val­ue” → Lin­coln Val­u­a­tion (pre­ferred) or Con­sen­sus Val­u­a­tion. Alter­na­tive if no SD: Yahoo Finance con­sen­sus esti­mate.
AN
Is the share price below the SD Intrin­sic Val­ue?
Score Yes = +1 No = 0

If the pri­or cell (AM) was blank, leave this blank also. If the share price is above the Lin­coln IV but below the Con­sen­sus IV, it still scores 0 — Tony con­sid­ers the Lin­coln cal­cu­la­tion more accu­rate.

AO
Is the Finan­cial Health TREND sta­ble or recov­er­ing?
Score Recov­er­ing = +2 Sta­ble = +1 Dete­ri­o­rat­ing = −1 Oth­er = blank

Look at the trend direc­tion of the Finan­cial Health rat­ing over the last two peri­ods. A recov­er­ing com­pa­ny (even if cur­rent­ly not in per­fect health) is scored high­er — it’s going in the right direc­tion. Sta­ble strong health = 1. Declin­ing = −1.

Note: on the SD bar graph, a low­er bar = stronger health (the y‑axis is invert­ed from what you might expect).

Stock Doc­tor → home page → sec­tion 1 “Finan­cial Health” → look at the last two columns of the bar graph.
AP
Is the Finan­cial Health RATING Strong or Sat­is­fac­to­ry?
Score Strong = +1 Sat­is­fac­to­ry = +1 Oth­er = 0

This is the cur­rent health rat­ing, not the trend. Read what it says in the big cir­cle in SD’s Finan­cial Health box. Strong or Sat­is­fac­to­ry both score 1. Any­thing else scores 0.

Stock Doc­tor → home page → sec­tion 1 “Finan­cial Health” → large cir­cle.
AQ
Is the CEO (or board mem­ber) a founder?
Score Yes = +2 No = 0

Buf­fett believes com­pa­nies where the founder remains involved as CEO or board mem­ber con­sis­tent­ly out­per­form oth­ers. The thresh­old is a ≥10% share­hold­ing.

This can be tricky when shares are held via a com­pa­ny. E.g. Solomon Lew holds 2.8% of Pre­mier Invest­ments direct­ly, but is Chair of Cen­tu­ry Plaza Invest­ments — the largest share­hold­er. A quick Google search usu­al­ly clar­i­fies the rela­tion­ship.

Stock Doc­tor → Cor­po­rate Details tab → Ordi­nary Secu­ri­ties (%) col­umn. Look for any­one hold­ing ≥10%.
AR
Does it have a qual­i­fied audit?
Qual­i­fied = FAIL (stop) Clean = pass

After being caught out by hid­den audit qual­i­fi­ca­tions in their finan­cial state­ments, Tony made this an imme­di­ate stop-check. If a com­pa­ny has any kind of mod­i­fied audit opin­ion, we don’t buy it — the risk of a sub­se­quent col­lapse is too high.

There are sev­er­al types of mod­i­fied opin­ion to watch for (from episode 426 with audi­tor James Oliv­er):

  • Qual­i­fied opin­ion — “except for X, the accounts are fine.” Look for the words “except for”.
  • Adverse opin­ion — the accounts are fun­da­men­tal­ly wrong, per­va­sive­ly.
  • Dis­claimer of opin­ion — the audi­tor could­n’t get enough info to form an opin­ion.
  • Empha­sis of Mat­ter — the audi­tor high­lights some­thing crit­i­cal (e.g. “mate­r­i­al uncer­tain­ty relat­ing to going con­cern”). This is also a red flag for us.
Imme­di­ate dis­qual­i­fi­er. If any mod­i­fied opin­ion exists, stop — don’t pro­ceed fur­ther with this stock. You’ll typ­i­cal­ly find the audit report in the com­pa­ny’s Appen­dix 4E (pre­lim­i­nary final report) or in the last pages of their annu­al finan­cial report.

More detail: Episode 318 (intro) · Episode 426 (full dis­cus­sion with James Oliv­er) · Tran­script Ep 356

Com­pa­ny web­site → Investor Rela­tions → Annu­al Reports or Appen­dix 4E. Also avail­able in Stock Doc­tor’s doc­u­ment sec­tion. There is no short­cut — you need to read the audit sec­tion of the report.
Intrin­sic Val­ue What is this stock actu­al­ly worth?
AF
Intrin­sic Val­ue #1 (Tony’s Method)
For­mu­la

Tony’s short­hand for esti­mat­ing intrin­sic val­ue — a sim­pli­fied Dis­count­ed Cash Flow that assumes we want the stock to achieve a 19.5% return (his his­tor­i­cal aver­age) in the next 12 months.

= Cur­rent EPS (AB) ÷ 0.195

Exam­ple: EPS of $3.00 → IV#1 = $3.00 ÷ 0.195 = $15.38. If the stock is trad­ing below $15.38, it’s gen­er­at­ing enough earn­ings to hit our return tar­get at cur­rent prices.

AG
Cur­rent Share Price (ref­er­ence copy)
Ref­er­ence only

A copy of the share price includ­ed for easy ref­er­ence when com­par­ing against the intrin­sic val­ue columns.

AH
Is the price below IV #1?
Score Yes = +1 No = 0

If the share price is below our IV#1, the stock is like­ly to meet our 19.5% tar­get return at the cur­rent price.

AI
Intrin­sic Val­ue #2 (Mar­ket Method)
For­mu­la

A sec­ond IV using Future EPS and the mar­ket hur­dle rate — the return a typ­i­cal investor would expect. We cal­cu­late mar­ket hur­dle rate as: RBA cash rate + 6% risk pre­mi­um.

= Future EPS (AC) ÷ Mar­ket Hur­dle Rate

Exam­ple (as at 2025-02-25): RBA rate = 4.1%, so mar­ket hur­dle rate = 10.1%. FEPS of $2.00 → IV#2 = $2.00 ÷ 0.101 = $19.80.

Tony has found this close­ly repli­cates a full Buf­fett-style DCF. See QAV #139 for the deep dive. If FEPS is blank, leave this cell blank.

RBA cash rate at rba.gov.au. FEPS from Col­umn AC.
AJ
Is the share price below IV #2?
Score Yes = +1 No = 0

If FEPS is blank, leave this blank also.

AK
Is IV #2 more than 2× the cur­rent share price?
Score Yes = +1 No = 0

An extra point if we think the stock is this deeply under­val­ued — essen­tial­ly buy­ing $2 of val­ue for $1. Blank if FEPS is blank.

Scor­ing Cal­cu­lat­ing and using the QAV Score
AU–AX
Scor­ing: Sum, Count, Check­list %, QAV Score
For­mu­las

AU – Sum of Scores: Add up all the scored columns.

AV – Count of scored items: Count all non-blank scor­ing columns (ignore blanks — don’t penalise a stock for data that does­n’t exist).

AW – Check­list Score:

= Sum of Scores (AU) ÷ Count of Items (AV)

This gives you a per­cent­age. A good check­list score is above 75%. How­ev­er, a low­er score is accept­able if the final QAV Score is ≥ 0.10.

AX – QAV Score:

= Check­list Score (AW) ÷ Price / Cash Ratio (N)

This is the num­ber that rep­re­sents qual­i­ty per dol­lar of val­ue. If it’s ≥ 0.10, it’s a buy. If less, pass.

Why 0.10? When Tony scores all ~2,500 ASX com­pa­nies and stack-ranks them, fil­ter­ing for QAV ≥ 0.10 pro­duces rough­ly 200 can­di­dates — enough to find a 15–20 stock port­fo­lio from. Buf­fet­t’s 20-Slot Punch Card wis­dom applies: you should think real­ly care­ful­ly about each stock you choose to own.
AY
Buy­backs
Score (added 2026-03-26) Yes = +1 No = blank

A new­er addi­tion to the check­list. A com­pa­ny buy­ing back its own shares reduces the share count, boost­ing EPS and sup­port­ing the share price — often a sig­nal man­age­ment believes the stock is under­val­ued.

To score +1, the com­pa­ny must have: (a) a con­firmed buy­back in progress, and (b) reduced their out­stand­ing share count by ≥5% in the last year.

Stock Doc­tor → Finan­cials → Liq­uid­i­ty → Ful­ly Paid Ord. Shares (000) — com­pare the last two peri­ods. Stock­o­pe­dia: Bal­ance Sheet sec­tion → Aver­age Shares.
Before buy­ing, check the Aver­age Dai­ly Trade (ADT). Tony caps any sin­gle pur­chase at 20% of ADT (occa­sion­al­ly up to 50% if noth­ing else is avail­able). This ensures you can exit with­out trou­ble if you need to.

Rule of thumb: if you’re buy­ing $1,000 parcels, the ADT should be >$5,000. If you’re buy­ing $100,000 parcels, ADT should be >$500,000. Fil­ter out stocks below your per­son­al ADT thresh­old before run­ning your full check­list.

You’ve run the num­bers. Here’s the final process before com­mit­ting:

1
Stack-rank the list on QAV Score, high­est to low­est.
2
Fil­ter out any stocks that:
  • Have neg­a­tive sen­ti­ment (Col­umn H)
  • Have a qual­i­fied audit (Col­umn AR)
  • Are below their sec­ond buy line
  • Have an under­ly­ing com­mod­i­ty that’s a Josephine or a sell (Col­umn AT)
  • Have an ADT below your per­son­al require­ment
  • Have a cor­po­rate gov­er­nance red flag
3
Check the day’s direc­tion. Before buy­ing, con­firm the price is head­ing up (or at least flat) on the day. If it’s hav­ing a down day, wait — it may either be the start of a down­trend, or you might get it cheap­er tomor­row.

“I can knock it off in a cou­ple of hours on a Sun­day night over two or three Negro­nis.”

Cameron Reil­ly on run­ning the check­list
QAV con­tent is edu­ca­tion­al and is not finan­cial advice. Tony Kynas­ton is not a finan­cial advis­er and does not pro­vide per­son­al finan­cial advice. Past per­for­mance is not a reli­able indi­ca­tor of future per­for­mance. Please con­sult a licensed finan­cial advis­er before mak­ing invest­ment deci­sions.
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